Rural Transformation, Inequality, and the Origins of Microfinance

What determines the development of rural financial markets? Starting from a simple theoretical framework, we derive the factors shaping the market entry of rural microfinance institutions across time and space. We provide empirical evidence for these determinants using the expansion of credit cooperatives in the 236 eastern counties of Prussia between 1852 and 1913. This setting is attractive as it provides a free market benchmark scenario without public ownership, subsidization, or direct regulatory intervention. Furthermore, we exploit features of our historical set-up to identify causal effects. The results show that declining agricultural staple prices, as a feature of structural transformation, leads to the emergence of credit cooperatives. Similarly, declining bank lending rates contribute to their rise. Low asset sizes and land inequality inhibit the regional spread of cooperatives, while ethnic heterogeneity has ambiguous effects. We also offer empirical evidence suggesting that credit cooperatives accelerated rural transformation by diversifying farm outputs

The Fiscal State in Africa: Evidence from a Century of Growth

What is the level of state capacity in developing countries today, and what have been its drivers over the past century? We construct a comprehensive new dataset of tax and revenue collection for 46 African polities from 1900 to 2015. Descriptive analysis shows that many polities in Africa have been characterized by strong growth in fiscal capacity. As a next step, we explain this growth using a fixed-effects long-run panel setting. The results show that canonical state-building factors such as democratic institutions and interstate warfare can increase revenue collection, while government turnover reduces it. Access to external credit and foreign aid are even more important, and both negatively affect fiscal capacity. In addition, access to external revenues, especially from commodity exports and debt, moderates the operation of canonical state-building factors such as democracy and conflict. These insights add important nuances to established theories of state building. Not only are states in Africa more capable than hitherto thought, but the international environment shapes their capacity, both directly and indirectly

Breaking the Unbreakable Union: Nationalism, Trade Disintegration and the Soviet Economic Collapse

The breakup of the Soviet Union provides evidence for the detrimental effects of secessionist conflict on domestic integration and economic growth. This paper shows that the increased likelihood of secessions by the Union's member republics in the late 1980s strongly reduced internal Union trade. Economic disintegration thus proceeded along internal borders and preceded the Soviet Union's official dissolution. This helps to explain the severity of the output fall in the late Soviet period. Methodologically, these results stem from an empirical gravity framework, which is derived from first principles by a game-theoretic modeling of Soviet internal trade. Exogenous variation in nationalist agendas, namely the desire to preserve national languages, is used to preclude endogeneity running from trade patterns to secession

The Fiscal State in Africa: Evidence from a century of growth

Why do large differences in fiscal capacity exist between states in the Global South? We constructa comprehensive new dataset of tax and revenue collection for 46 African polities from 1900 to2015. Descriptive analyses show that many polities in Africa have been characterized by stronggrowth in real tax collection. As a next step, we employ these data to test theories of fiscal capac-ity in a long-run panel setting, using fixed-effects and causal estimation techniques. The resultsshow democratic institutions and interstate warfare can increase fiscal capacity, while governmentturnover reduces it. However, these factors are conditional on the availability of debt financingand external aid, which by themselves reduce incentives to invest in fiscal capacity. Leveragingnew data on exogenous movements in commodity prices, we show that resource income does notgenerally lead to lower capacity. These insights add important nuance to established theories ofstate-building

Trade and wage inequality: The mediating roles of occupations in Germany

Recent evidence shows that rising wage inequality in industrialized countries can partially be attributed to trade integration. However, it is unclear what the mechanisms behind this relationship are. Previous explanations pointed towards the displacement of mid-wage manufacturing workers as a response to rising imports. But for Germany it has been shown that rising exports likewise create manufacturing jobs, indicating that industry-based explanations fall short. We argue that focusing on changes of the occupational composition as well as the occupation-specific median and top wages may help to explain the effects of trade on inequality. We draw on a task-based approach as well as theories on power relations between occupations and firms’ self selection into exports to arrive at predictions about the mediating role of occupations. We analyze German trade relations with China between 1994 and 2010 using social security data (BHP, IEB) and data on international trade flows (COMTRADE). Applying an instrumental variable approach, we find that imports do not affect wage inequality. Instead, exports to China increase wage dispersion within German labor market regions . While increased trade integration alters the occupational task composition, we find no evidence that these shifts mediate the effects of exports on wage inequality. Exports rather increase the wages of some occupations, especially for top earners, highlighting the importance to set the focus on within occupation dynamics