Utilisation of ANFIS in analysing impact of cost structure on Croatian maritime companies development

The modern approach to growth analysis and development of enterprises includes the analysis of defined business models progressively. One of the essential factors of any business model is the cost structure, mostly intended to analyse and define better the processes of transferring value to the customer, maintain customer relationship and generate revenue. An analysis of the costs incurred in these processes should facilitate the effective definition of key resources, key activities and key partnerships. Modern theory distinguishes two types of business models from a cost perspective: a cost-driven model and a value-driven model. The cost-driven model is focused on minimizing costs wherever possible and such an approach has the propensity to create and maintain the lowest possible cost structure using low-cost value propositions. The value-driven model is focused on value creation and superior value propositions. The aim of this research, by using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) approach, is to create models for analysing the impact of cost structure on sustainable development and business survival with respect to selected financial indicators. Based on clustering methods, model creation is preceded by a search of the link between the business performance indicators and parameters that increase or decrease a particular cost component. The sample for creation of the model is based on financial data of five maritime Croatian companies obtained through four business years. Thus, by analysis of the companies’ business operations based on such created models it is possible to define the limits, namely the degrees of increase or decrease of a particular type of cost at which companies achieve sound business growth and development. Consequently, the management of a company is enabled to form effective business strategies. Such strategies in modern context imply innovation in business, new technological processes, efficient stock management, and improved relationships with customers and suppliers

Coevolution of banks and capital markets in the modern view of effective parts of the financial system architecture

Due to the onset of the last economic crisis, the recent focus of policy makers has been shifted from economic development to the possibility of fast identification of the sources of financial shocks and imbalances in order to quickly solve the extreme stresses that can emerge in the financial system. Therefore, the interdependences of financial institutions and financial leverages as well as the causes of endogenous changes of real interest rates and the differences emerging between interest rates and the rates affecting expenditure are observed more often in this context. The paper emphasizes this problem as well as the problem of the need for a different structure of the financial system and its participants that would contribute to a higher level of economic development. In this context, on the example of data on the Croatian capital market shareholders’ structure and data on the amount of loans to companies in the period from 2006 to 2018, a model was developed via ANFIS. The model indicated the positive and negative impacts of banks and shareholders’ structure on the capital market

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DIFFERENT BUSINESS VALUE COMPONENTS WITHIN THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY

The oil and gas industry is characterized by many complexities and specificities of business operations. The above is also reflected in the identification of value components, and the understanding of their interrelationships. In order to have an effective value management, it is especially important to follow up on the movements in key financial indicators and qualitative factors which impact the creation of financial results. This paper presents the theoretical basis in order to identify the most important qualitative value components in oil and gas companies. Therefore, the specificities of all sectors within this industry are highlighted in order for them to be related to the key financial factors influencing the creation of stable cash flows. For this purpose, a cluster analysis of selected key financial factors has been performed using self-organizing neural networks. Connecting identified qualitative value components affecting cash flows with the financial parameters through which they are reflected, creates a framework for developing an effective value management model

Modern approach to business valuation of oil and gas companies based on computational intelligence

Vrednovanje poduzeća naftne i plinske industrije po mnogim je čimbenicima specifično i teško izvedivo postojećom metodologijom i trenutno korištenim pristupima vrednovanju. Identifikacija i ocjena čimbenika koji stvaraju i pokreću vrijednost poduzeća naftne i plinske industrije temelji se na složenim izračunima koji uključuju mnoge varijable. Međuovisnost tih varijabli prekompleksna je da bi se izrazila jednostavnom formulom. Iz tih se razloga kod vrednovanja ovakvih poduzeća postojeće metode vrednovanja moraju prilagođavati čime se u konačnici brojni kvalitativni, pa čak i kvantitativni čimbenici uopće ne uzimaju u obzir. Pred ekonomske stručnjake i znanstvenike s područja vrednovanja postavljaju se tako novi izazovi u determiniranju odgovarajuće metodologije i pristupa kojima će se moći otkloniti navedeni nedostaci. U ovom doktorskom radu predložen je suvremeni pristup vrednovanju poduzeća naftne i plinske industrije na osnovi računalne inteligencije. Takav pristup temeljen je na korištenju i prilagodbi brojnih financijskih i nefinancijskih pokazatelja pomoću umjetnih neuronskih mreža i neizrazite logike.Business valuation of oil and gas companies can be described as specific and difficult in many aspects within existing methodology and currently used approaches in appraisal process. Identification and evaluation of the significant factors that create and determine enterprise value in oil and gas industry is based on complex calculations involving many variables. Regardless of this reason, existing business valuation methods for such companies have to be improved with taking into account a numerous qualitative and even additional quantitative factors. Therefore, economic experts and scientists in the field of business valuation are confronted with new challenges in determination of appropriate approaches that should be able to eliminate the disadvantages of existing valuation methods. In this doctoral thesis, a modern approach to business valuation of oil and gas companies based on computational intelligence has been suggested. This approach includes application and adaption of selected financial and non-financial indicators by means of artificial neural networks and fuzzy logi

Modern approach to business valuation of oil and gas companies based on computational intelligence

Vrednovanje poduzeća naftne i plinske industrije po mnogim je čimbenicima specifično i teško izvedivo postojećom metodologijom i trenutno korištenim pristupima vrednovanju. Identifikacija i ocjena čimbenika koji stvaraju i pokreću vrijednost poduzeća naftne i plinske industrije temelji se na složenim izračunima koji uključuju mnoge varijable. Međuovisnost tih varijabli prekompleksna je da bi se izrazila jednostavnom formulom. Iz tih se razloga kod vrednovanja ovakvih poduzeća postojeće metode vrednovanja moraju prilagođavati čime se u konačnici brojni kvalitativni, pa čak i kvantitativni čimbenici uopće ne uzimaju u obzir. Pred ekonomske stručnjake i znanstvenike s područja vrednovanja postavljaju se tako novi izazovi u determiniranju odgovarajuće metodologije i pristupa kojima će se moći otkloniti navedeni nedostaci. U ovom doktorskom radu predložen je suvremeni pristup vrednovanju poduzeća naftne i plinske industrije na osnovi računalne inteligencije. Takav pristup temeljen je na korištenju i prilagodbi brojnih financijskih i nefinancijskih pokazatelja pomoću umjetnih neuronskih mreža i neizrazite logike.Business valuation of oil and gas companies can be described as specific and difficult in many aspects within existing methodology and currently used approaches in appraisal process. Identification and evaluation of the significant factors that create and determine enterprise value in oil and gas industry is based on complex calculations involving many variables. Regardless of this reason, existing business valuation methods for such companies have to be improved with taking into account a numerous qualitative and even additional quantitative factors. Therefore, economic experts and scientists in the field of business valuation are confronted with new challenges in determination of appropriate approaches that should be able to eliminate the disadvantages of existing valuation methods. In this doctoral thesis, a modern approach to business valuation of oil and gas companies based on computational intelligence has been suggested. This approach includes application and adaption of selected financial and non-financial indicators by means of artificial neural networks and fuzzy logi

Using ANFIS in joint dynamics of monetization, financial development, public debt and unemployment analysis

Purpose: The modern concepts of contemplating joint dynamics of monetary policy effects on economic growth and its indicators require an indirect approach based on empirical research of mainly financial infrastructure, competitiveness of the financial markets and current economic conditions. Meanwhile, the problems of unemployment and the structure of employment within these concepts are most frequently linked with the polarization of the labor market and two important factors, that is, the effects of growth on unemployment and the fact that technological changes affect the changes in salary ranges. Methodology: By using the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and the set of data from 1995 to 2016, this paper analyzes these issues through a prism of established balances between the labor and financial markets, i.e., the monetization of economy (M1/GDP), financial development (Loans/GDP) and the share of gross government debt in GDP (government gross debt/GDP). Results: The proposed model suggests that the rate of unemployment is conditioned by the financial cycle and monetary policy (M1/GDP, Loans/GDP), as well as the business cycle and fiscal policy (gross d/BDP) and that a controlled and properly directed level of monetization of the economy (M1/BDP) and financial development measured as Loans/GDP can be “sufficient” for economic growth. Conclusion: Waiting in the “monetary union lobby”, i.e., waiting for the ERM II exchange mechanism can last longer than the set deadlines, leading to the need for Croatian economic policy to optimize monetary and fiscal policy measures in order to increase economic growth and reduce unemployment

The impact of financial friction on the development and survival of medium-sized enterprises in the Republic of Croatia

Financijsko trenje kao poveznica povrata financijskog kapitala, tj. povrata kapitala i imovine, troška kapitala koji plaćaju poduzeća i iznosa koji ulagači zarađuju od financijskih zahtjeva, u ekonomskoj se teoriji rijetko koristi i uvodi u politiku financijske analize, uglavnom monetarnih vlasti. Dosadašnja istraživanja o tome ukazala su na potrebu uvođenja takvih modela u financijsku analizu, uglavnom radi ispitivanja potrebe za povećanjem priljeva raspoloživoga kapitala po prihvatljivim stopama. U ovome radu predložen je drugačiji pristup ovom problemu, tj. na uzorku financijskih podataka za pet poslovnih godina pedeset srednjih hrvatskih poduzeća, primjenom modela temeljenih na ANFIS-u, analiziran je utjecaj financijskog trenja na razvojni potencijal poduzeća. U definiciji modela korištene su varijable povrat imovine (ROA), povrat na kapital (ROE), koeficijent vlastitog financiranja, faktor zaduženosti i EBITDA marža. Provedena analiza može poslužiti poduzetnicima u pronalaženju optimalnih omjera financijske poluge za održivo poslovanje okrenuto razvojnim strategijama, ali i kreatorima politike u definiranju potrebe za subvencioniranjem kamatnih stopa na poslovne zajmove.Financial friction as a link between the return on financial capital, i.e. return on capital and assets, the cost of capital paid by companies, and the amount that investors earn from financial requirements, is rarely used in economic theory and introduced into financial analysis policy, mainly by monetary authorities. Previous research on this topic has indicated the need to introduce such models in financial analysis, mainly for the purpose of examining the need to increase available capital inflows at acceptable rates. This paper proposes a different approach to this problem, i.e. on the sample of financial data for 5 business years of 50 medium-sized Croatian companies, using models based on ANFIS, the impact of financial friction on the development potential of companies has been analysed. In the definition of the model, the variables such as return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), equity ratio, indebtedness ratio and EBITDA margin were used. The conducted analysis can serve entrepreneurs in finding the optimal ratio of financial leverage for sustainable business focused on development strategies, but also policy makers in defining the need to subsidize interest rates on business loans

Return on strategic effectiveness – the need for synchronising growth and development strategies in the hotel industry using revenue management

The purpose of this paper is to identify the essential determinants, and highlight the importance, of synchronising the growth and development strategies of hotel companies. The paper aims to analyse preconditions to successful and stable business performance and customer loyalty. The paper is based on the hypothesis that strategic and organisational effectiveness helps to create preconditions to stable business in the future, which is reflected in satisfactory growth, financial strength and solvency, and results in creating added value. The five-year financial data of three hotel companies with similar business orientation from Istria County (Croatia) were used to test the model for synchronising growth and development strategies in the hotel industry and the fuzzy logic-based growthdevelopment synchronisation coefficient. The model was tested on multi-annual results (the period 2010–2014), and conclusions and recommendations were made for a future work

POSLOVNI MODELI U GOING CONCERN KONCEPTU TEMELJENI NA MEĐUOVISNOSTI KATEGORIJA STVARANJA, OČUVANJA I ZADRŽAVANJA VRIJEDNOSTI

Suvremeni ekonomski koncepti usredotočeni su na održive modele poslovanja. Stoga bi u kontekstu going concern koncepta osnovni organizacijski ciljevi trebali biti usmjereni ka ključnim procesima i resursima koji pridonose stvaranju, očuvanju i zadržavanju vrijednosti. To se odnosi na identifikaciju i analizu međuovisnosti vrijednosnih kategorija, te usmjeravanje poslovnih strategija na pravilno upravljanje vrijednosnim lancem. U tom procesu vrlo su važni međusobni odnosi i povjerenje svih sudionika stvaranja vrijednosti, kako bi se mogli stvarati zadovoljavajući pozitivni novčani tokovi temeljem poslovne izvrsnosti, kapitalne strukture i konkurentnosti poduzeća. Takvo poslovanje ujedno služi i promicanju gospodarskih i društvenih vrijednosti u zajednicama u kojima poduzeće posluje pa je dio modernih shared value koncepata. Održive prednosti stvaraju se optimalnom kombinacijom stvaranja i zadržavanja vrijednosti. Zbog toga se u radu predlaže konceptualni model stvaranja i zadržavanja vrijednosti u svrhu razvoja učinkovitih poslovnih rješenja za održivoi dugotrajno poslovanje