Temporary and persistent fiscal policy shocks

Abstract This paper conducts an empirical investigation of the effects of temporary versus persistent fiscal policy shocks. Using data from the US I show that short lived fiscal expansions have a positive effect on output and consumption; while persistent fiscal shocks generate negative effects on consumption and - to a lesser extent - on output. Persistent fiscal expansions are associated with an increase in precautionary savings, collapse in consumers' confidence and an increase the yield curve's term premium. Consistently with consumption smoothing, short-lived fiscal expansions generate a temporary deficit in the current account, while persistent fiscal shocks leave the external balance unaffected. I find evidence of non linearity in the effects of temporary and persistent fiscal shocks according to (i) the level of public debt and (ii) the state of the business cycle. Persistent fiscal shocks have larger negative effects on consumption and output if they take place at high levels of public debt, possibly due to the higher costs of fiscal stabilization. The state of the business cycle is also very relevant. Persistent fiscal shocks generate negative multipliers in times of economic boom, but these negative multipliers disappear in periods of recession when credit constraints are more likely to bind. On the other hand, temporary fiscal shocks have positive effects both in times of expansion and in times of recession, but with the multipliers being way larger in the latter case. Differently with what hypothesized by the earlier literature on non-Keynesian fiscal effects, I find little evidence that these effects are asymmetric depending on the size of the shocks

Identifying the Effects of Government Spending Shocks with and without Expected Reversal: an Approach Based on U.S. Real-Time Data

This paper investigates how expectations about future government spending affect the transmission of fiscal policy shocks. We study the effects of two different types of government spending shocks in the United States: (i) spending shocks that are accompanied by an expected reversal of public spending growth below trend; (ii) spending shocks that are accompanied by expectations of future spending growth above trend. We use the Ramey (2011)’s time series of military build-ups to measure exogenous spending shocks, and deviations of forecasts of public spending with respect to past trends, evaluated in real-time, to distinguish shocks into these two categories. Based on a structural VAR analysis, our results suggest that shocks associated with an expected spending reversal exert expansionary effects on the economy and accelerate the correction of the initial increase in public debt. Shocks associated with expected spending growth above trend, instead, are characterized by a contraction in aggregate demand and a more persistent increase in public debt. The main channel of transmission seems to run through agents’ perception of the future macroeconomic environment.Government spending shocks, Survey of Professional Forecasters, Real-time data, Spending reversal, Fiscal multipliers.

Identifying the effects of government spending shocks with and without expected reversal: an approach based on U.S. real-time data

This paper investigates how expectations about future government spending affect the transmission of fiscal policy shocks. We study the effects of two different types of government spending shocks in the United States: (i) spending shocks that are accompanied by an expected reversal of public spending growth below trend; (ii) spending shocks that are accompanied by expectations of future spending growth above trend. We use the Ramey (2011)’s time series of military build-ups to measure exogenous spending shocks, and deviations of forecasts of public spending with respect to past trends, evaluated in real-time, to distinguish shocks into these two categories. Based on a structural VAR analysis, our results suggest that shocks associated with an expected spending reversal exert expansionary effects on the economy and accelerate the correction of the initial increase in public debt. Shocks associated with expected spending growth above trend, instead, are characterized by a contraction in aggregate demand and a more persistent increase in public debt. The main channel of transmission seems to run through agents’ perception of the future macroeconomic environment. JEL Classification: E62, E65, H20Fiscal multipliers, Government spending shocks, real-time data, Spending reversal, Survey of Professional Forecasters

Expected fiscal policy and interest rates in open economy

This paper reconsiders the long term effect of fiscal policy on interest rates using a real-time dataset of macroeconomic and fiscal variables in a panel of 17 OECD countries over the period 1989-2009. We show that, after controlling for cross sectional dependence using a Factor Augmented Panel, interest rates are mostly related to global factors. Among domestic fiscal variables, the level of expected public debt mantains a positive correlation with interest rates, while among the global factors, the aggregate monetary and fiscal stance play a quantitatively sizeable role. We then analyze how impulses from the aggregate fiscal stance influence each country's interest rates. We find that these effects are modest in large economies and particularly strong in economies characterized by low initial financial integration, leading the way to a novel interpretation of the divergent behaviour of interest rates in the recent financial crisis

Fiscal policy, interest rates and risk premia in open economy

This paper reconsiders the effects of fiscal policy on long-term interest rates and sovereign spreads employing a Factor Augmented Panel (FAP) to control for the presence of common unobservable factors. We construct a real-time dataset of macroeconomic and fiscal variables for a panel of OECD countries for the period 1989-2009. We find that two global factors - the global monetary and fiscal policy stances - explain more than 60% of the variance in the long-term interest rates. The same two global factors play a relevant role also in explaining the variance of sovereign spreads, which in addition respond to global risk aversion. With respect to standard estimation techniques the use of the FAP reduces the importance of domestic fiscal variables in explaining long- term interest rates, while it emphasizes their importance in explaining sovereign spreads. Using the FAP framework we also analyse the cross-country differences in the propagation of a shock to global fiscal stance and global risk aversion. We find the effects of the former to be modest in large economies and strong in economies characterized by low financial integration and current account deficits. Changes in global risk aversion, instead, lead to higher spreads in countries with a high stock of public debt and weaker political institutions

Early Detection with Pulse Oximetry of Hypoxemic Neonatal Conditions. Development of the IX Clinical Consensus Statement of the Ibero-American Society of Neonatology (SIBEN)

This article reviews the development of the Ninth Clinical Consensus Statement by SIBEN (the Ibero-American of Neonatology) on “Early Detection with Pulse Oximetry (SpO2) of Hypoxemic Neonatal Conditions”. It describes the process of the consensus, and the conclusions and recommendations for screening newborns with pulse oximetry

Expected fiscal policy and interest rates in open economy

This paper reconsiders the long term effect of fiscal policy on interest rates using a real-time dataset of macroeconomic and fiscal variables in a panel of 17 OECD countries over the period 1989-2009. We show that, after controlling for cross sectional dependence using a Factor Augmented Panel, interest rates are mostly related to global factors. Among domestic fiscal variables, the level of expected public debt mantains a positive correlation with interest rates, while among the global factors, the aggregate monetary and fiscal stance play a quantitatively sizeable role. We then analyze how impulses from the aggregate fiscal stance influence each country's interest rates. We find that these effects are modest in large economies and particularly strong in economies characterized by low initial financial integration, leading the way to a novel interpretation of the divergent behaviour of interest rates in the recent financial crisis.Real time data; Fiscal Policy; Interest rates; Cross sectional dependence; Heterogeneous panels; Factor model.

Assessment of the Accuracy of a Multi-Beam LED Scanner Sensor for Measuring Olive Canopies

MDPI. CC BYCanopy characterization has become important when trying to optimize any kind of agricultural operation in high-growing crops, such as olive. Many sensors and techniques have reported satisfactory results in these approaches and in this work a 2D laser scanner was explored for measuring canopy trees in real-time conditions. The sensor was tested in both laboratory and field conditions to check its accuracy, its cone width, and its ability to characterize olive canopies in situ. The sensor was mounted on a mast and tested in laboratory conditions to check: (i) its accuracy at different measurement distances; (ii) its measurement cone width with different reflectivity targets; and (iii) the influence of the target’s density on its accuracy. The field tests involved both isolated and hedgerow orchards, in which the measurements were taken manually and with the sensor. The canopy volume was estimated with a methodology consisting of revolving or extruding the canopy contour. The sensor showed high accuracy in the laboratory test, except for the measurements performed at 1.0 m distance, with 60 mm error (6%). Otherwise, error remained below 20 mm (1% relative error). The cone width depended on the target reflectivity. The accuracy decreased with the target density

DCA Control. Prevención y seguimiento de pacientes con epilepsia

Monitorización de pacientes con pulseras o relojes inteligentes tipo Angel Sensor o Xiaomi MyBand. Aplicaciones de monitorización mediante el uso de cámaras y sensores de tipo pulseras y relojes inteligentes para detectar ataques de epilepsia, desplazamientos inusuales y otros síntomas de comportamiento no habitual de personas con daño cerebral, Alzheimer y otras enfermedades