Loans to Japanese borrowers

Though the Japanese banking system has been the focus of numerous empirical studies, there is scant empirical evidence on the characteristics of loan contracts between Japanese firms and their banks. This paper incorporates relatively new contract-specific data on bank loans to large borrowers to help fill this gap. Specifically, we examine how loans to Japanese companies compare with loans to similar non-Japanese companies and how loans to Japanese borrowers vary according to the nationality of the bank making the loan. We then gauge the value of bank loans to Japanese borrowers by estimating abnormal stock price returns around the announcement of new bank loans.

Empirical Evidence on the Duration of Bank Relationships

We present evidence on the duration of firm-bank relationships using a unique panel data set of connections between Oslo Stock Exchange-listed firms and their banks for the period 1979-1994. We focus on the determinants of the duration of a relationship and the causes for ending an existing bank relationship. We find that duration itself does not greatly influence the likelihood of ending a relationship: short-lived relationships are as likely to end as long-lived relationships. We also find firms that maintain simultaneous multiple-bank relationships are more likely to end a bank relationship than a single-bank firm and that small, highly-leveraged "growth" firms are more likely to end a bank relationship than large, low-leveraged "value" firms.banking relationships, hazard models, duration analysis JEL Codes: G21, C41

Distressed relationships: lessons from the Norwegian banking crisis

This paper measures the economy-wide impact of bank distress on the loss of relationship benefits. We use the near-collapse of the Norwegian banking system during the period 1988 to 1991 to measure the impact of bank distress announcements on the stock prices of firms maintaining a relationship with a distressed bank. We find that although banks experience large and permanent downward revisions in their equity value during the event period, firms maintaining relationships with these banks face only small and temporary changes, on average, in stock price. In other words, the aggregate impact of bank distress on the real economy appears small. We analyze the cross-sectional variation in firm abnormal returns and find that firms that maintain international bank relationships suffer more upon announcement of bank distress

Global integration in the banking industry

Lowered regulatory barriers and advances in technology have reduced the cost of supplying banking services across borders. At the same time, growth in activity by multinational corporations has increased the demand for international financial services. As a result, many observers believe that global integration is under way in the banking industry, that banks are expanding their reach across borders, and that many banking markets will therefore develop large foreign components. The authors report on a study conducted by them, along with Qinglei Dai and Steven Ongena, that examined the nationality and international reach of banks that provide short-term financial services across Europe to affiliates of multinational corporations. The present article also looks at time-series data that provide a more recent look at the progress of integration in Europe. Based on a 1996 survey of more than 2,000 affiliates, the study found that an affiliate is most likely to choose a bank headquartered in the nation in which it is operating (a host-nation bank) rather than a bank headquartered in the home country of the affiliate or in a third nation. The affiliate is also more likely to select a bank limited to local or regional operations rather than one with global reach. The findings are consistent with the proposition that affiliates most value a bank that understands the culture, business practices, and regulatory conditions of the country in which the affiliate operates, and that host-nation banks possess a competitive advantage over other banks in this regard. The time-series data--on syndicated loans, foreign bank claims, and the dispersion of consumer goods prices across Europe--are also consistent with the picture drawn from the 1996 survey. The article concludes that banking markets evidently need not become more integrated even as economic activity otherwise becomes increasingly global.Banks and banking ; International finance

The stability of interest rate processes

This paper presents a careful reexamination of Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff, and Sanders (CKLS 1992). By redefining the possible regime shift period in line with evidence from known policy changes and past empirical research, we find evidence that contradicts the major results in their paper. The widely cited conclusion of their paper is that the elasticity of interest rate volatility is 1.5. CKLS also concluded that there was no structural shift in the interest rate process after October 1979. When the structural shift period is defined to be temporary and coincident with the Federal Reserve Experiment of October 1979 through September 1982, we find that there is strong evidence of a structural break. Furthermore, we find evidence that, contrary to CKLS's claim, a moderately elastic interest rate process can capture the dependence of volatility on the level of interest rates, while highly elastic models cannot. In particular, this study finds support for the square-root CIR process. These results are robust to changes in the short-rate data used and the treatment of outliers.Econometric models ; Interest rates ; Money

The development of an integrated modelling system to support decisions on organic farms

This paper was presented at the UK Organic Research 2002 Conference of the Colloquium of Organic Researchers (COR). An Integrated Decision Support System (IDSS) is developed which synthesises current understanding of organic farming by means of a multiple objective framework incorporating GIS, biophysical models and socio-economic models of the farming goals. The IDSS uses a multitiered concept of a farming system as a collection of micro-enterprises at the field level, with individual resource endowments, objectives and activities. Farm-level decision drivers trickle down to affect the micro-level field enterprise selection. Biophysical models describe typical forage, cereal, root and legume output and a user-friendly interfaces permits easy access and output display via a GIS. A prototype of the IDSS framework, being developed as a part of the SAC organic research programme is presented

A comparison of refined models for flexible subassemblies

Interactions between structure response and control of large flexible space systems have challenged current modeling techniques and have prompted development of new techniques for model improvement. Due to the geometric complexity of envisioned large flexible space structures, finite element models (FEM's) will be used to predict the dynamic characteristics of structural components. It is widely accepted that these models must be experimentally 'validated' before their acceptance as the basis for final design analysis. However, predictions of modal properties (natural frequencies, mode shapes, and damping ratios) are often in error when compared to those obtained from Experimental Modal Analysis (EMA). Recent research efforts have resulted in the development of algorithmic approaches for model improvement, also referred to as system or structure identification

Decentralized production and public liquidity with private information

Firms with private information about the outcomes of production under uncertainty may face capital (liquidity) constraints that prevent them from attaining efficient levels of investment in a world with costly and/or imperfect monitoring. As an alternative, we examine the efficiency of a simple pooling scheme designed to provide a public (cooperative) supply of liquidity that results in the first best outcome for economic growth. We show that if, absent aggregate uncertainty, the elasticity of scale of the production technology is sufficiently small, then efficient levels of investment and growth can always be supported. Finally, some results for a special case (constant elasticity of scale) are examined when investors face aggregate uncertainty. We show that, in addition to a low elasticity of scale for the production function, investors must have sufficiently optimistic prior beliefs if efficient growth is to be achieved regardless of the actual future state of the world.Information theory ; Liquidity (Economics) ; Production (Economic theory)

A New Look at the Wealth Adequacy of Older U.S. Households

We examine the current wealth adequacy of older U.S. households using the 1998-2006 waves of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). We find that the median older U.S. household is reasonably well situated, with a ratio of comprehensive net wealth to present value poverty- line wealth of about 3.9 in 2006. About 18 percent of households, however, have less wealth than would be needed to generate 150 percent of poverty-line income over their expected future lifetimes. We see similar patterns of wealth adequacy when we examine ratios of annualized comprehensive wealth to pre-retirement earnings. Comparing the leading edge of the baby boomers in 2006 to households of the same age in 1998, we find that the baby boomers show slightly less wealth, in real terms, than their elders did, but still have appear to have adequate resources at the median. Moreover, we find a rising age profile of annualized wealth, even within households over time and after controlling for other factors, suggesting that older households are not spending their wealth as quickly as their survival probabilities are falling.

Coastal Shipping Trade On the Eve of the Railroad: Gardiner, Maine In the Early 1830’s

This article provides an analysis of the early 1830’s coastal trade centering on Gardiner, Maine and including analysis of destination and origin ports and ship types