The effect of three large Mw¿7.3 subduction earth-quakes (August-November 2012) on volcanic unrest in Central America

¿Was the volcanic eruption triggered by the earthquake?¿ The answer to this question usually is ¿maybe¿ or ¿a coincidence¿. A region like Central America, is an adequate area to find hints to answer this question because have the necessary ingredients: the frequent occurrence of large earthquakes (M5+) and dozens of active volcanoes. This research focuses on whether the uncommon occurrence of three large earthquakes in the subduction zone of Central America, within a time span of ten weeks in 2012, promoted enhanced volcanic activity. The time window analyzed is from 2000 to 2019, which includes a total of 50 volcanic eruptions with a VEI¿2. Before the 2012 earthquakes, 22 eruptions occurred. The Monte Carlo statistical simulation method allowed to demonstrate that this increase in the number of volcanic eruptions after the three large earthquakes of 2012 it is not a temporal coincidence. We analyzed the characteristics of each earthquake and described how they could disturb the volcanic systems. Although Central America hosts 24 volcanoes with historical eruptions, only 11 of them erupted after the 2012 earthquakes. Why did only these volcanoes erupt? To answer this question, we calculated the dynamic and static stress in each volcano and the level of volcanic unrest (the change in volcanic activity beyond background behavior to worrisome levels) prior to the earthquakes. We found that volcanoes in a unrest stage before the earthquakes but, without experiencing explosive eruptions before, erupted after receiving the seismic shocks. This fact suggests that the earthquakes by themselves did not transfer enough energy to generate the volcanic eruptions when volcanoes were not ready to erupt. However, earthquakes could promote volcanic eruptions when volcanoes were already at unrest. This research offers a tool for forecasting volcanic activity when a large earthquake hits a region, if the volcanic activity is previously monitored

Increment in the volcanic unrest and number of eruptions after the 2012 large earthquakes sequence in Central America.

Understanding the relationship cause/effect between tectonic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions is a striking topic in Earth Sciences. Volcanoes erupt with variable reaction times as a consequence of the impact of seismic waves (i.e. dynamic stress) and changes in the stress field (i.e. static stress).In2012, three large(Mw≥7.3)subductionearthquakes struck Central Americawithin a period of 10 weeks;subsequently, some volcanoesin the regionerupted a few days after, whileotherstook months or even years to erupt. Here, we show thatthese threeearthquakes contributed to the increase in the number of volcanic eruptionsduring the 7 years that followed these seismic events. We found that onlythosevolcanoes that were already in a critical state ofunrest eventually erupted, which indicates that the earthquakes only prompted the eruptions. Therefore, we recommend the permanent monitoring of active volcanoes toreveal which are more susceptible to culminate into eruption in the aftermath of the next large-magnitude earthquake hits a region.Funding was provided by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and Istitute Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV).Peer reviewe

Author Correction: Increment in the volcanic unrest and number of eruptions after the 2012 large earthquakes sequence in Central America

Correction to: Scientific Reports https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01725-1, published online 17 November 2021.The original version of this Article contained a repeated error in the Introduction, in Figure 1 and its accompanying legend, in the Results section under the subheading ‘Stress changes caused by the earthquakes’, in the Discussion and conclusions section under the subheading ‘Volcanic eruptions long after the earthquakes’, and in the Supplementary Information file, where the earthquake that occurred on November 7, 2012 was incorrectly mentioned as having occurred on November 11, 2012. The original Fig. 1 and accompanying legend appear below. The original Article and the Supplementary Information file that accompanies the original Article have been corrected.Peer reviewe

Progress in modeling the Tohoku-oki megathrust earthquake cycle and associated crustal deformation processes

Abstract This paper summarizes the results of 10 years of research on models of the megathrust earthquake cycles and crustal deformation associated with the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. Several earthquake cycle models have been proposed for the northeast Japan subduction zone to elucidate why megathrust earthquakes occur at intervals of approximately 600 years and why large slips occurred in the shallow subduction zone. A model that considers a strong asperity in the shallow plate interface, and a hierarchical asperity model that considers the scale dependence of the critical displacement of the rate- and state-dependent friction law have been proposed. Modeling with dynamic weakening of faults has also been proposed. In the model using the shallow friction characteristics obtained by the Japan Trench Fast Drilling Project, rupture from depth can propagate to the trench, resulting in shallow large slips. Submarine crustal deformation has been observed for the first time in addition to dense observations of the inland crustal deformation. The observation of the seafloor deformation near the trench showed that viscoelastic relaxation played an important role in short-term postseismic deformation near the trench. The effects of the low-viscosity region at the oceanic lithosphere and asthenosphere boundary, and the cold forearc mantle wedge (cold nose) have been discussed. Simulations using the nonlinear flow law of rock in the mantle, where a power–law relationship holds between stress and strain rate, and the fault friction law at the plate boundary, show that the Tohoku-oki earthquake caused large stress fluctuations, resulting in a sudden viscosity decrease and rapid flow in the asthenosphere below the oceanic lithosphere. The simulations of the crustal deformation associated with the Tohoku-oki earthquake cycle also indicate that in the later stage of the earthquake cycle, the Pacific coastal region begins to subside due to the increasing slip deficit rate on the deeper parts of the plate interface. These results explain the subsidence of the Pacific coast of northeast Japan observed for about 100 years prior to the Tohoku-oki earthquake. In the future, a model that explains the long-term crust and mantle deformation during the entire Tohoku-oki earthquake cycle must be constructed

Supplementary information from Earthquake sequence simulations with measured properties for JFAST core samples

This file includes parameters of the fault constitutive law used in the present study and detailed description of a catastrophic earthquake produced in a simulation

Mechanism of subsidence of the Northeast Japan forearc during the late period of a gigantic earthquake cycle

東北地方太平洋沿岸域が沈降するメカニズムを解明 --超巨大地震サイクル後半の沈降速度の増加--. 京都大学プレスリリース. 2019-04-09.The forearc in Northeast Japan subsided (3–4 mm/year) in the interseismic ~100 years before the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (MW9.1) just like it did during this event. This study attempts to understand the mechanism of the vertical displacement of the forearc during gigantic earthquake cycles via numerical modeling. The results suggest that the interseismic subsidence rate in the forearc increases with the duration of the locking of the asperity of the gigantic earthquake over several hundred years, due to the increasing slip deficit rate on the deeper parts of the plate interface. The increasing slip deficit rate is caused by both the decreasing the shear stress in the shear zone owing to the continuous locking of the asperity and the increasing the mobility of the continental lithosphere owing to the viscoelastic relaxation in the mantle wedge. The deep slip deficit rate extending to ~100 km depth of the plate interface is necessary to explain the observed interseismic forearc subsidence rate. The results also suggest hundreds of years of continuous locking of the asperities of a gigantic earthquake in the western Kuril subduction zone, where fast forearc subsidence has been observed as well

Near-trench slip potential of megaquakes evaluated from fault properties and conditions.

「ちきゅう」の断層掘削試料の分析と動力学解析による南海トラフ地震での断層すべり量の定量的評価. 京都大学プレスリリース. 2016-06-27.Near-trench slip during large megathrust earthquakes (megaquakes) is an important factor in the generation of destructive tsunamis. We proposed a new approach to assessing the near-trench slip potential quantitatively by integrating laboratory-derived properties of fault materials and simulations of fault weakening and rupture propagation. Although the permeability of the sandy Nankai Trough materials are higher than that of the clayey materials from the Japan Trench, dynamic weakening by thermally pressurized fluid is greater at the Nankai Trough owing to higher friction, although initially overpressured fluid at the Nankai Trough restrains the fault weakening. Dynamic rupture simulations reproduced the large slip near the trench observed in the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake and predicted the possibility of a large slip of over 30 m for the impending megaquake at the Nankai Trough. Our integrative approach is applicable globally to subduction zones as a novel tool for the prediction of extreme tsunami-producing near-trench slip