Optimal properties of some Bayesian inferences

Relative surprise regions are shown to minimize, among Bayesian credible regions, the prior probability of covering a false value from the prior. Such regions are also shown to be unbiased in the sense that the prior probability of covering a false value is bounded above by the prior probability of covering the true value. Relative surprise regions are shown to maximize both the Bayes factor in favor of the region containing the true value and the relative belief ratio, among all credible regions with the same posterior content. Relative surprise regions emerge naturally when we consider equivalence classes of credible regions generated via reparameterizations.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-EJS126 the Electronic Journal of Statistics (http://www.i-journals.org/ejs/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Factors Associated with Contraceptive Use among Jordanian Muslim Women: Implications for Health and Social Policy

The objectives of this quantitative study were to identify factors associated with contraceptive use by Jordanian Muslim women; to estimate factors that predict the variance in contraceptive use; and recommend appropriate health and social policies to enhance quality of life of Jordanian women. A cross -sectional design was used to collect data from 487 married non-pregnant women aged 18 to 49 years who resided in three southern governorates in Jordan using a structured interview guide. Results showed that 63.2% of women used some form of contraceptive method; IUD was the most frequently used method (44.2%). The percentage of women exposed to violence was 5% and 9.2% for physical and verbal abuse respectively. Findings also showed that there was a significant relationship between psychological wellbeing of women and contraceptive use. Furthermore, no relationship between women’s perceived religious stance towards contraceptives and their use. Predictors of contraceptive use were: women aged 40-45 years explained 23.3% of the variance in contraceptive use; and the woman’s approval of contraceptive use for birth spacing explained 21.4% of the variance in contraceptive use. The Islamic stance towards contraceptive use was not significant in these women; however further studies are needed to confirm these findings as well as the generalizability to Muslim women in other countries. The study findings have implications for health and social policies relevant to family planning services in order to enhance and increase the use of contraceptives to reduce the TFR in Jordan. Furthermore, health care providers, social and economical policy makers need to integrate women’s cultural views and contraceptive use in strategies and policies beyond health to improve women’s quality of life and build on the global consensus for women and children to achieve the Millennium Development goals

Agricultural resource and risk management with multiperiod stochastics: A case of the mixed crop-livestock production system in the drylands of Jordan

Generally, agricultural production involves several challenges. In the drylands, it is further complicated by weather-related risks and resource degradation. In this paper, we present a case study of the mixed crop-livestock production system in Jordan. To better capture the nature of response farming in the drylands, we develop a methodology for using crop simulation models to directly generate data for optimizing production practices of an integrated crop-livestock producing household in a dynamic stochastic context. The approach optimizes producer's adaptations to random events, such as weather, which are realized throughout the planning horizon. To ensure the sustainability of the optimized production decisions, long-term valuations of end of horizon soil attributes are included in the objective function. This approach endogenizes the tradeoff between short-and long-run productivity. Model results show that due to the limited natural resource endowments and financial liquidity constraints of the typical farm households in the study area, we find these households have limited options. To optimally respond to weather conditions during the production season, better manage risk, and achieve improvements in soil attributes, a typical household would need larger farm size, larger flock, and better financial liquidity than it currently commands. Like all such models, the farm household model used in this paper is not suitable for drawing policy implications. Therefore, targeted analysis using appropriate sectoral or economy-wide models will be needed in the future to identify and test the efficacy of different policy and institutional interventions including land consolidation, establishment of producer and marketing cooperatives, access to financial services including agricultural credit, and crop insurance in expanding the resource base of farmers-thereby positioning them for higher earnings, ensuring soil conservation, and enhancing the sustainability of the production system

Numerical solution of n’th order fuzzy initial value problems by six stages

The purpose of this paper is to present a numerical approach to solve fuzzy initial value problems (FIVPs) involving n-th order ordinary differential equations.The idea is based on the formulation of the six stages Runge-Kutta method of order five (RKM56) from crisp environment to fuzzy environment followed by the stability definitions and the convergence proof.It is shown that the n-th order FIVP can be solved by RKM56 by transforming the original problem into a system of first-order FIVPs. The results indicate that the method is very effective and simple to apply.An efficient procedure is proposed of RKM56 on the basis of the principles and definitions of fuzzy sets theory and the capability of the method is illustrated by solving second-order linear FIVP involving a circuit model problem

Association mapping of spot blotch resistance in wild barley

Spot blotch, caused by Cochliobolus sativus, is an important foliar disease of barley. The disease has been controlled for over 40 years through the deployment of cultivars with durable resistance derived from the line NDB112. Pathotypes of C. sativus with virulence for the NDB112 resistance have been detected in Canada; thus, many commercial cultivars are vulnerable to spot blotch epidemics. To increase the diversity of spot blotch resistance in cultivated barley, we evaluated 318 diverse wild barley accessions comprising the Wild Barley Diversity Collection (WBDC) for reaction to C. sativus at the seedling stage and utilized an association mapping (AM) approach to identify and map resistance loci. A high frequency of resistance was found in the WBDC as 95% (302/318) of the accessions exhibited low infection responses. The WBDC was genotyped with 558 Diversity Array Technology (DArT®) and 2,878 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers and subjected to structure analysis before running the AM procedure. Thirteen QTL for spot blotch resistance were identified with DArT and SNP markers. These QTL were found on chromosomes 1H, 2H, 3H, 5H, and 7H and explained from 2.3 to 3.9% of the phenotypic variance. Nearly half of the identified QTL mapped to chromosome bins where spot blotch resistance loci were previously reported, offering some validation for the AM approach. The other QTL mapped to unique genomic regions and may represent new spot blotch resistance loci. This study demonstrates that AM is an effective technique for identifying and mapping QTL for disease resistance in a wild crop progenitor

Multicenter evaluation of the clinical utility of laparoscopy-assisted ERCP in patients with Roux-en-Y gastric bypass

Background and Aims The obesity epidemic has led to increased use of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB). These patients have an increased incidence of pancreaticobiliary diseases yet standard ERCP is not possible due to surgically altered gastroduodenal anatomy. Laparoscopic-ERCP (LA-ERCP) has been proposed as an option but supporting data are derived from single center small case-series. Therefore, we conducted a large multicenter study to evaluate the feasibility, safety, and outcomes of LA-ERCP. Methods This is retrospective cohort study of adult patients with RYGB who underwent LA-ERCP in 34 centers. Data on demographics, indications, procedure success, and adverse events were collected. Procedure success was defined when all of the following were achieved: reaching the papilla, cannulating the desired duct and providing endoscopic therapy as clinically indicated. Results A total of 579 patients (median age 51, 84% women) were included. Indication for LA-ERCP was biliary in 89%, pancreatic in 8%, and both in 3%. Procedure success was achieved in 98%. Median total procedure time was 152 minutes (IQR 109-210) with median ERCP time 40 minutes (IQR 28-56). Median hospital stay was 2 days (IQR 1-3). Adverse events were 18% (laparoscopy-related 10%, ERCP-related 7%, both 1%) with the clear majority (92%) classified as mild/moderate whereas 8% were severe and 1 death occurred. Conclusion Our large multicenter study indicates that LA-ERCP in patients with RYGB is feasible with a high procedure success rate comparable with that of standard ERCP in patients with normal anatomy. ERCP-related adverse events rate is comparable with conventional ERCP, but the overall adverse event rate was higher due to the added laparoscopy-related events

Biosynthesis of silver nanoparticles from Citrobacter freundii as antibiofilm agents with their cytotoxic effects on human cells

Background: Nanomaterials have recently been identified for their potential benefits in the areas of medicine and pharmaceuticals. Among these nanomaterials, silver nanoparticles (Ag-NPs) have been widely utilized in the fields of diagnostics, antimicrobials, and catalysis. Objective: To investigate the potential utility of Citrobacter freundii in the synthesis of silver Nanoparticles (Ag-NPs), and to determine the antimicrobial activities of the Ag-NPs produced. Methods: Aqueous Ag+ ions were reduced when exposed to C. freundii extract and sunlight, leading to the formation of Ag-NPs. Qualitative microanalysis for the synthesized Ag-NPs was done using UVvis spectrometry, Energy Dispersive X-ray analysis (EDX), and scanning and transmission electron microscopy. The hydrodynamic size and stability of the particles were detected using Dynamic Light Scattering (DLS) analysis. The Ag-NPs’ anti-planktonic and anti-biofilm activities against Staphylococcus aureus and Pseudomonas aeruginosa, which are two important skin and wound pathogens, were investigated. The cytotoxicity on human dermal fibroblast cell line was also determined. Results: Ag-NPs were spherical with a size range between 15 to 30 nm. Furthermore, Ag-NPs displayed potent bactericidal activities against both S. aureus and P. aeruginosa and showed noticeable anti-biofilm activity against S. aureus biofilms. Ag-NPs induced minor cytotoxic effects on human cells as indicated by a reduction in cell viability, a disruption of plasma membrane integrity, and apoptosis induction. Conclusion: Ag-NPs generated in this study might be a future potential alternative to be used as antimicrobial agents in pharmaceutical applications for wound and skin related infections.</p