Liberalizing Trade, and its Impact on Poverty and Inequality in Nicaragua

The Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations stalled in 2008 owing in no small degree to a lack of agreement on the terms of substantially reducing trade-distorting support for agricultural products and to what extent this would be beneficial to developing countries. Nicaragua presents an interesting case in point, being one of the poorest economies in Latin America with still a relatively large agricultural sector and high degrees of rural poverty. In 2005, the country signed a free trade agreement with the United States. A previous study showed that most welfare gains of this agreement for Nicaragua would potentially come from the increased market access for textiles and clothing exported to the United States. Under the agreement, the country stands to benefit much less from reducing tariffs on agricultural imports or agro-industrial export quotas. Since the United States is Nicaragua’s main trading partner, this raises the question whether further trade liberalization with all trading partners, including full elimination of all taxes and tariffs on agricultural production and trade, would be any more beneficial. Using a CGE model and a microsimulation methodology, this study shows that small welfare gains in terms of increased output and poverty reduction may be expected for Nicaragua under various scenarios of trade opening. At best, however, there would be a static gain in aggregate output of 1.5 percent as compared with the baseline scenario. This outcome would materialize only in a scenario of worldwide liberalization of trade in agricultural and non-agricultural products as this would yield relatively strong positive terms-of-trade effects for Nicaragua. Employment and real wage growth would contribute to poverty reduction, but only very modestly in a country with still widespread poverty. Most of these small gains would accrue to the rural poor. The analysis further shows that these gains tend to be smaller when using trade elasticity estimates based on country-specific data as compared with the much higher elasticities typically assumed by global trade models, including the Global Linkage model.Distorted incentives, agricultural and trade policy reforms, national agricultural development, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, F13, F14, Q17, Q18,

Constraints to achieving the MDGs through domestic resource mobilization

The present paper focuses on the role of domestic resource mobilization for financing poverty reduction strategies. Policy makers should be aware of important macroeconomic trade-offs associated with MDG strategies financed from tax increases or domestic borrowing. The trade-offs are largely intertemporal: can poor and middle-income countries absorb the initial financing costs in order to achieve expected gains in productivity and human development over time? This calls for a dynamic economy-wide framework to identify the importance of such trade-offs. The paper presents such a framework and illustrates its usefulness in applications for Costa Rica and Ecuador.computable general equilibrium models; distribution; welfare and poverty; foreign aid; macroeconomic analyses of economic development.

Using Data Mining to Support the University Decision Process: A Case in a Chilean University

Data mining is increasingly becoming an essential tool in organizations today. Particularly, academic organizations are requesting more sophisticated tools to improve their decision making process. A large quantity of data and information is produced during the student’s life, but it is still necessary to turn them into insight. This paper describes a project that use data mining to support the decision making process in higher education in Chile. The aim of this project is to find patterns that allow the identification and determination of relationships among the initial conditions of students and with their final status as a student (drop-out or graduated). The study is conducted in a university in the north of Chile and it considers five undergraduate majors. The final results of this project are expected to support the decisions making process related with university admission policies, causes of student failure or success, and university marketing policies

Analysis of Process Configurations for CO2 Capture by Precipitating Amino Acid Solvents

Precipitating amino acid solvents are an alternative to conventional amine scrubbing for CO2 capture from flue gas. Process operation with these solvents leads to the formation of precipitates during absorption that need to be re-dissolved prior to desorption of CO2. The process configuration is crucial for the successful application of these solvents. Different process configurations have been analyzed in this work, including a full analysis of the baseline operating conditions (based on potassium taurate), the addition of lean vapor compression, multiple absorber feeds, and the use of different amino acids as alternative solvents to the baseline based on potassium taurate. The analysis is carried out with an equilibrium model of the process that approximates the thermodynamics of the solvents considered. The results show that the precipitating amino acid solvents can reduce the reboiler duty needed to regenerate the solvent with respect to a conventional MEA process. However, this reduction is accompanied by an expenditure in lower grade energy needed to dissolve the precipitates. To successfully implement these processes into power plants, an internal recycle of the rich stream is necessary. This configuration, known as DECAB Plus, can lower the overall energy use of the capture process, which includes the energy needed to regenerate the solvent, the energy needed to dissolve the precipitates, and the energy needed to compress the CO2 to 110 bar. With respect to the energy efficiency, the DECAB Plus with lean vapor compression configuration is the best configuration based on potassium taurate, which reduces the reboiler duty for regeneration by 45% with respect to conventional MEA. Retrofitting this process into a coal fired power plant will result in overall energy savings of 15% with respect to the conventional MEA process, including compression of the CO2 stream to 110 bar. Potassium alanate was found to reduce the energy use with respect to potassium taurate under similar process configurations. Therefore, the investigation of potassium alanate in a DECAB Plus configuration is highly recommended, since it can reduce the energy requirements of the best process configuration based on potassium taurat

Levels and patterns of objectively assessed physical activity and compliance with different public health guidelines in university students

ArticleBackground Physical activity (PA) is associated with health enhancement. The aim of this study was to assess: 1) levels and patterns of PA in university students by using accelerometers; and 2) the percentage of fulfilment of PA recommendations for adults, according to different public health guidelines. Methods Observational cross-sectional study (Cuenca’s Adults Study) involving 296 (206 women) healthy Spanish university students aged 18–25 years old. Participants wore the ActiGraph GT1M accelerometer for seven consecutive days. Total PA, steps and time spent in sedentary time, light, moderate, vigorous, and moderate to vigorous PA (MVPA) was assessed, and the prevalence of sufficient PA was calculated according to various public health guidelines. Results No sex differences in total PA were found. University students were more sedentary during weekend days than weekdays (p<0.05). Only 30.3% of participants accumulated 30 min/day at least five days a week of MVPA. A total of 5.4% of students met the recommendation of 150 min/week of MVPA or 75 min/week of vigorous PA, in PA bouts of at least 10 min. using the same definition, but on five or more days a week, only 0.5% students were found to meet the recommendation. In addition, only 0.5% of students met the recommendation of 30 min/day of MVPA, at least five days a week and in bouts of at least 10 min. Finally, 28.1% of the students met the recommendation of 10,000 steps/day. Conclusions Our study shows a high incidence of sedentary time in university students. The number of students meeting PA recommendations significantly differed depending on the recommendation proposed. Specific strategies to promote PA in this population are necessary as well as an agreement as to which PA guidelines should be used.Fundación para la Investigación SanitariaMinistry of Health and Consumer AffairsInstituto de Salud Carlos IIIRed de Investigación en Actividades Preventivas y de Promoción de Salu

Comparative efficacy between atorvastatin and rosuvastatin in the prevention of cardiovascular disease recurrence

Background: There is no randomized clinical trials with recurrence of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) as a major outcome with rosuvastatin. In order to analyze potential differences in the clinical response to atorvastatin and rosuvastatin in secondary ASCVD prevention, we have analyzed the clinical evolution of those subjects of the Dyslipemia Registry of the Spanish Society of Arteriosclerosis (SEA) who at the time of inclusion in the Registry had already suffered an ASCVD. Methods: This observational, retrospective, multicenter, national study was designed to determine potential differences between the use of atorvastatin and rosuvastatin in the ASCVD recurrence. Three different follow-up start-times were performed: time of inclusion in the registry; time of first event if this occurred after 2005, and time of first event without date restriction. Results: Baseline characteristics were similar between treatment groups. Among atorvastatin or rosuvastatin users, 89 recurrences of ASCVD were recorded (21.9%), of which 85.4% were coronary. At the inclusion of the subject in the registry, 345 participants had not suffered a recurrence yet. These 345 subjects accumulated 1050 person-years in a mean follow-up of 3 years. Event rates were 2.73 (95% CI: 1.63, 4.25) cases/100 person-years and 2.34 (95% CI: 1.17, 4.10) cases/100 person-years in the atorvastatin and rosuvastatin groups, respectively. There were no statistically significant differences between the two groups independently of the follow-up start-time. Conclusions: This study does not find differences between high doses of rosuvastatin and atorvastatin in the recurrence of ASCVD, and supports their use as clinically equivalent in secondary prevention of ASCVD

GEMS Survey Data and Catalog

We describe the data reduction and object cataloging for the GEMS survey, a large-area (800 arcmin(2)) two-band (F606W and F850LP) imaging survey with the Advanced Camera for Surveys on the Hubble Space Telescope, centered on the Chandra Deep Field-South.STScI HST-GO-9500.01NASA GO-9500, NAS5-26555, NAG5-13063, NAG5-13102European Community’s Human Potential Programunder contractHPRN-CT-2002-00316, HPRN-CT-2002-00305McDonald Observator

GEMS: Galaxy fitting catalogues and testing parametric galaxy fitting codes

In the context of measuring structure and morphology of intermediate redshift galaxies with recent HST/ACS surveys, we tune, test, and compare two widely used fitting codes (GALFIT and GIM2D) for fitting single-component Sersic models to the light profiles of both simulated and real galaxy data. We find that fitting accuracy depends sensitively on galaxy profile shape. Exponential disks are well fit with Sersic models and have small measurement errors, whereas fits to de Vaucouleurs profiles show larger uncertainties owing to the large amount of light at large radii. We find that both codes provide reliable fits and little systematic error, when the effective surface brightness is above that of the sky. Moreover, both codes return errors that significantly underestimate the true fitting uncertainties, which are best estimated with simulations. We find that GIM2D suffers significant systematic errors for spheroids with close companions owing to the difficulty of effectively masking out neighboring galaxy light; there appears to be no work around to this important systematic in GIM2D's current implementation. While this crowding error affects only a small fraction of galaxies in GEMS, it must be accounted for in the analysis of deeper cosmological images or of more crowded fields with GIM2D. In contrast, GALFIT results are robust to the presence of neighbors because it can simultaneously fit the profiles of multiple companions thereby deblending their effect on the fit to the galaxy of interest. We find GALFIT's robustness to nearby companions and factor of >~20 faster runtime speed are important advantages over GIM2D for analyzing large HST/ACS datasets. Finally we include our final catalog of fit results for all 41,495 objects detected in GEMS.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJS October 2007, v172n2; 25 pages, 16 Figures, 9 Tables; for hi-resolution version, see http://www.mpia.de/homes/bhaeussl/galaxy_fitting.pdf. For results, catalogues and files for code-testing, see http://www.mpia.de/GEMS/fitting_paper.htm