Agricultural Market Performance in the EU after the 2000 and 2003 CAP Reform An Ex-post Evaluation based on AGMEMOD

The paper investigates the CAP impacts on the EU agriculture by means of policy simulations conducted with the AGMEMOD model. To isolate the policy effects in the historical period 2000-2005, counterfactual simulations for this period are run. To simulate the response of the EU agriculture on different policy changes in the period 2006-2020, a ‘no-policy change’ baseline scenario is developed and then policy experiments are conducted such as the abolition of milk quota, the implementation of the regional payments and some budget cuts. To identify the policy effects, the policy scenarios are compared with the ‘no-policy change’ baseline.CAP Reform, ex-post evaluation, agricultural sector modelling, Agricultural and Food Policy,

Bringing together stakeholders’ interaction and economic modelling: Recent experiences in designing research and agricultural policy

Policies are becoming intensively interrelated while increasing numbers of societal groups and stakeholders are affected. At the same time, current and future challenges require improved capacity in terms of models, their linkages or redesigns to deliver forward-looking insights on policies. Different stakeholder workshops have recently been applied in two projects to support these activities, including stocktaking, inputs for narratives, feedbacks to outcomes, acceptance of analysis and drafting future research agendas. This paper describes approaches applied in both projects, shortly presents their results and findings to finally draw some general conclusions

Bringing together Stakeholders’ Interaction and Economic Modelling: Recent Experiences in Designing Research and Agricultural Policy

Policies are becoming intensively interrelated while increasing numbers of societal groups and stakeholders are affected. At the same time, current and future challenges require improved capacity in terms of models, their linkages or redesigns to deliver forward-looking insights on policies. Different stakeholder workshops have recently been carried out in the context of two scenario studies to support these activities, including stocktaking, inputs for narratives, validation of the outcomes, acceptance of analysis and drafting future research agendas. This paper describes the approaches applied in both projects, shortly presents their results and findings to finally draw some general conclusions

Impedance analysis of electrolyte processes in a solid oxide cell

Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and the distribution of relaxation times are powerful tools to study polarization processes in solid oxide cells (SOC). Commonly the measured polarization resistance is solely attributed to polarization phenomena in the electrodes whereas the electrolyte is assumed to act as purely ohmic series resistance. In this study an electrolyte supported SOC is investigated by impedance spectroscopy from the nominal operating temperature range of 700–900°C down to temperatures as low as 350°C. At such low temperatures the dielectric polarization of the electrolyte is shifted into the accessible frequency range, providing access to additional processes which are deconvoluted and quantified. It is discussed to which extent the additional layers like gadolinia doped ceria diffusion barrier and electrode layers influence the electrolyte processes as grain and grain boundary

Future Developments in German Fish Market – Integration of Market Expert Knowledge into a Modelling System

Globally, fish has become more important in human nutrition, thus global consumption is expected to highly increase in the future years. Business-as-usual projections for fish market are limited by availability of reliable data at fish category level that hinders the differentiation in more detail on supply and demand as well as across EU member states. The new fish module in AGMEMOD provides midterm projections for the fish category markets in EU member states. For this, a status-quo simulation to the year 2030 is developed in AGMEMOD. In order to deal with the poor data availability, the model employs expert opinions about the German market, obtained through an elaborate questionnaire. Thus, expertise knowledge provides more detailed and accurate information on the German fish sector that helps to improve the insights in future German market developments. Based on this, AGMEMOD shows somewhat higher production development up to 2030, than in the original projections