1,464 research outputs found

    Modification of the pattern informatics method for forecasting large earthquake events using complex eigenvectors

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    Recent studies have shown that real-valued principal component analysis can be applied to earthquake fault systems for forecasting and prediction. In addition, theoretical analysis indicates that earthquake stresses may obey a wave-like equation, having solutions with inverse frequencies for a given fault similar to those that characterize the time intervals between the largest events on the fault. It is therefore desirable to apply complex principal component analysis to develop earthquake forecast algorithms. In this paper we modify the Pattern Informatics method of earthquake forecasting to take advantage of the wave-like properties of seismic stresses and utilize the Hilbert transform to create complex eigenvectors out of measured time series. We show that Pattern Informatics analyses using complex eigenvectors create short-term forecast hot-spot maps that differ from hot-spot maps created using only real-valued data and suggest methods of analyzing the differences and calculating the information gain.Comment: 13 pages, 1 figure. Submitted to Tectonophysics on 30 August 200

    Sympatric speciation in an age-structured population living on a lattice

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    A square lattice is introduced into the Penna model for biological aging in order to study the evolution of diploid sexual populations under certain conditions when one single locus in the individual's genome is considered as identifier of species. The simulation results show, after several generations, the flourishing and coexistence of two separate species in the same environment, i.e., one original species splits up into two on the same territory (sympatric speciation). As well, the mortalities obtained are in a good agreement with the Gompertz law of exponential increase of mortality with age.Comment: 5 pages including 3 encapsulated postscript (*.eps) figures; To appear in European Physical Journal

    Near mean-field behavior in the generalized Burridge-Knopoff earthquake model with variable range stress transfer

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    Simple models of earthquake faults are important for understanding the mechanisms for their observed behavior in nature, such as Gutenberg-Richter scaling. Because of the importance of long-range interactions in an elastic medium, we generalize the Burridge-Knopoff slider-block model to include variable range stress transfer. We find that the Burridge-Knopoff model with long-range stress transfer exhibits qualitatively different behavior than the corresponding long-range cellular automata models and the usual Burridge-Knopoff model with nearest-neighbor stress transfer, depending on how quickly the friction force weakens with increasing velocity. Extensive simulations of quasiperiodic characteristic events, mode-switching phenomena, ergodicity, and waiting-time distributions are also discussed. Our results are consistent with the existence of a mean-field critical point and have important implications for our understanding of earthquakes and other driven dissipative systems.Comment: 24 pages 12 figures, revised version for Phys. Rev.

    Lophophore of the Eocene brachiopod Terebratulina wardenensis Elliott

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    8 p., 2 fig.http://paleo.ku.edu/contributions.htm

    Correlated Avalanche-Burst Invasion Percolation: Multifractal Origins of a Characteristic Self-Organized Critical System

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    We extend our previous model, avalanche-burst invasion percolation (AIP)model by introducing long-range correlations between sites described by fractional Brownian statistics. In our previous models with independent, random site strengths, we reproduced a unique set of power-laws consistent with some of the b-values observed during induced seismicity. We expand upon these models to produce a family of critical exponents which would be characterized by the local long-range correlations inherent to host sediment. Further, in previous correlated invasion percolation studies, fractal behavior was found in only a subset of the range of Hurst exponent, HH. We find fractal behavior persists for the entire range of Hurst exponent. Additionally, we show how multiple cluster scaling power laws results from changing the generalized Hurst parameter controlling long-range site correlations, and gives rise to a truly multifractal system. This emergent multifractal behavior plays a central role in allowing us to extend our model to better account for variations in the observed Gutenber-Richter b-values of induced seismicity.Comment: To be Published in Phys. Rev. E 202

    Breaking a one-dimensional chain: fracture in 1 + 1 dimensions

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    The breaking rate of an atomic chain stretched at zero temperature by a constant force can be calculated in a quasiclassical approximation by finding the localized solutions ("bounces") of the equations of classical dynamics in imaginary time. We show that this theory is related to the critical cracks of stressed solids, because the world lines of the atoms in the chain form a two-dimensional crystal, and the bounce is a crack configuration in (unstable) mechanical equilibrium. Thus the tunneling time, Action, and breaking rate in the limit of small forces are determined by the classical results of Griffith. For the limit of large forces we give an exact bounce solution that describes the quantum fracture and classical crack close to the limit of mechanical stability. This limit can be viewed as a critical phenomenon for which we establish a Levanyuk-Ginzburg criterion of weakness of fluctuations, and propose a scaling argument for the critical regime. The post-tunneling dynamics is understood by the analytic continuation of the bounce solutions to real time.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figure

    Trait compensation in marine gastropods: shell shape, avoidance behavior, and susceptibility to predation

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    Many organisms have evolved morphological and behavioral traits that reduce their susceptibility to predation. However, few studies have explicitly investigated the relationships between defensive traits and susceptibility. Here we demonstrate a negative correlation between morphological defenses and behavioral avoidance across several species of marine gastropod that is linked to vulnerability to crab predation. Snails that had relatively taller shell spires (high aspect ratio) showed greater responsiveness when exposed to predation cues than did species with disc-like shells (low aspect ratio). Our results suggest that the snail species most vulnerable to predation compensated by showing the highest levels of behavioral avoidance, and hence may be at a disadvantage in competition with less vulnerable species. This has important implications because the behavioral response of herbivorous gastropods to predation cues may play a central role in structuring rocky intertidal communities through trait-mediated indirect effects

    The issue of truth in the thought of Martin Heidegger

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