Estimating US persistent and transitory monetary shocks: implications for monetary policy

This paper proposes an estimation method for persistent and transitory monetary shocks using the monetary policy modeling proposed in Andolfatto et al, [Journal of Monetary Economics, 55 (2008), pp.: 406-422]. The contribution of the paper is threefold: a) to deal with non-Gaussian innovations, we consider a convenient reformulation of the state-space representation that enables us to use the Kalman filter as an optimal estimation algorithm. Now the state equation allows expectations play a significant role in explaining the future time evolution of monetary shocks; b) it offers the possibility to perform maximum likelihood estimation for all the parameters involved in the monetary policy, and c) as a consequence, we can estimate the conditional probability that a regime change has occurred in the current period given an observed monetary shock. Empirical evidence on US monetary policy making is provided through the lens of a Taylor rule, suggesting that the Fed’s policy was implemented accordingly with the macroeconomic conditions after the Great Moderation. The use of the particle filter produces similar quantitative and qualitative findings. However, our procedure has much less computational cost.Kalman filter, Non-normality, Particle filter, Monetary policy

Environmental fiscal policies might be ineffective to control pollution

In a one sector growth model with pollution in the utility function, the competitive equilibrium can be indeterminate for plausible values of the intertemporal substitution elasticity of consumption and under constant returns to scale. The tax rate on pollution does not enter the condition characterizing indeterminacy. This means that the government is not able to control emissions in the economy by using environmental policies. Non-separability between private consumption and pollution in the utility function is crucial for this result.Indeterminacy, Environmental taxes, Pollution

Tax Reforms in an Endogenous Growth Model with Pollution

This paper discusses the effects of a green tax reform in an AK growth model without abatement activities and with a negative environmental externality in utility function. There is also a non-optimal level of public spending. The results depend on the financing source of public spending. When there is not public debt, a revenue-neutral green tax reform has not any effect on pollution, growth and welfare. On the contrary, when short-run deficits are financed by debt issuing, a variety of green tax reforms increase welfare. Nevertheless, in this framework, non-green tax reforms are also welfare improving.Environmental externalities, Economic growth, Pollution taxes, Laffer Curve.

Double Dividend in an Endogenous Growth Model with Pollution and Abatement

This paper discusses wether by implementing an environmental tax reform, a government may achieve a double dividend. We consider the simplest endogenous growth model (AK model) and include a negative environmental externality in the utility function. Pollution flow can be reduced by means of private abatenment activities. There is a predetermined non-optimal level of public spending financed by environmental taxes and pre-existing taxes on income and consumption. The major contribution of the paper is to show that, under this simple framework, a double dividend may arise if tax reform consists of substituing environmental tax for income tax, in such a way that the government budget constraint holds in a present value sense.Environmental tax reform, Double dividend, Abatement activities.

Mixed Variational Inequality Interval-valued Problem: Theorems of Existence of Solutions

In this article, our efforts focus on finding the conditions for the existence of solutions of Mixed Stampacchia Variational Inequality Interval-valued Problem on Hadamard manifolds with monotonicity assumption by using KKM mappings. Conditions that allow us to prove the existence of equilibrium points in a market of perfect competition. We will identify solutions of Stampacchia variational problem and optimization problem with the interval-valued convex objective function, improving on previous results in the literature. We will illustrate the main results obtained with some examples and numerical results

Global and local indeterminacy and optimal environmental public policies in an economy with public abatement activities

We study the dynamic properties of an endogenous growth model with pollution in which the government can control the pollution through distorting taxes on the pollutant firms and through public abatement activities. First, we characterize the conditions for indeterminacy of equilibria when the government is benevolent and chooses its tax policy by taking into account the decentralized competitive equilibrium. Under this second best setup we show that two balanced growth paths can be found (one with a low level of pollution and the other with a high level) both of which can be locally indeterminate. Therefore, under indeterminacy, the optimal public policies do not guarantee that the economy will converge towards the steady state characterized by a low level of pollution and neither guarantee that the economy will display, along the transition, low levels of pollution. Second, we show that the central planner solution might also display indeterminacy; in particular, two Pigouvian taxes can be found.Global and local indeterminacy, Environmental taxes, Pollution, Abatement, Pigouvian taxes

Monetary policy regimes and the forward bias for foreign exchange

This paper provides a theoretical discussion of the forward premium anomaly. We reformulate the well-known Lucas (1982) model by allowing for the existence of monetary policy regimes. The monetary supply is viewed as having two stochastic components: a) a persistent component that reflects the preferences of the central bank regarding the long-run money supply or inflation target, and b) a transitory component that represents short-lived interventions. To generate agents forecasts, we consider two scenarios: a) consumers can distinguish the permanent and the transitory components of the money supply, and b) consumers can observe only historical series of the aggregate monetary supply and face a signal-extraction problem. We simulate the model from a carefully estimation for the parameters involved in the model. Numerical simulations reveal that, under complete information, forward unbiasedness cannot be rejected at conventionally significant levels. However, when learning about monetary policy is incorporated, the forward bias can be reproduced without artificially assuming an unreasonable degree of risk aversion

Estimating US persistent and transitory monetary shocks: implications for monetary policy

This paper proposes an estimation method for persistent and transitory monetary shocks using the monetary policy modeling proposed in Andolfatto et al, [Journal of Monetary Economics, 55 (2008), pp.: 406-422]. The contribution of the paper is threefold: a) to deal with non-Gaussian innovations, we consider a convenient reformulation of the state-space representation that enables us to use the Kalman filter as an optimal estimation algorithm. Now the state equation allows expectations play a significant role in explaining the future time evolution of monetary shocks; b) it offers the possibility to perform maximum likelihood estimation for all the parameters involved in the monetary policy, and c) as a consequence, we can estimate the conditional probability that a regime change has occurred in the current period given an observed monetary shock. Empirical evidence on US monetary policy making is provided through the lens of a Taylor rule, suggesting that the Fed’s policy was implemented accordingly with the macroeconomic conditions after the Great Moderation. The use of the particle filter produces similar quantitative and qualitative findings. However, our procedure has much less computational cost

Rockets and feathers behaviour in the Spanish gasoline and diesel market: New evidence

In this paper we analyse the potential asymmetric response of retail prices for gasoline and diesel-fuel to changes in oil prices for the Spanish economy and its relation with the so-called ‘rockets and feathers’ behaviour. We show that the assumption made by previous studies, which use as the key explanatory variable the sign –positive or negativeof the change in international oil prices, is inadequate for the Spanish case and the magnitude of the change in international oil prices is also relevant. For small changes in international oil prices there is neither price asymmetry nor rockets and feathers behavior in the retail markets. However, price asymmetries in line with rockets and feathers behavior in retail gasoline and gasoil markets are present when these changes exceed a certain threshold. Following Martín-Moreno et al. (2018) we first apply an Auto-regressive Error Correction Model and endogenously estimate the threshold triggering the rockets and feathers behaviour. A time-varying nature for the dynamic response of retail prices to oil price shocks is revealed when we estimate the TAR-ECM model using rolling windows. Hence, in a second stage, we use a Markov-switching estimation of the model to test the robustness of the results given its suitability to changing environments. This study could have relevant policy implications for the Spanish gasoline and gasoil retail markets due to the ongoing debate on the existence of a rockets and feathers behavior in gasoline and gasoil retail markets between the Spanish regulatory body and the oil companies.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad | Ref. ECO2015-67305-PMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad | Ref. ECO2015-68367-RXunta de Galicia | Ref. GRC2014/02

Necessary and Sufficient Optimality Conditions for Vector Equilibrium Problems on Hadamard Manifolds

The aim of this paper is to show the existence and attainability of Karush–Kuhn–Tucker optimality conditions for weakly efficient Pareto points for vector equilibrium problems with the addition of constraints in the novel context of Hadamard manifolds, as opposed to the classical examples of Banach, normed or Hausdorff spaces. More specifically, classical necessary and sufficient conditions for weakly efficient Pareto points to the constrained vector optimization problem are presented. The results described in this article generalize results obtained by Gong (2008) andWei and Gong (2010) and Feng and Qiu (2014) from Hausdorff topological vector spaces, real normed spaces, and real Banach spaces to Hadamard manifolds, respectively. This is done using a notion of Riemannian symmetric spaces of a noncompact type as special Hadarmard manifolds