SLIDES: Adapting to Climate and to Climate Change

Presenter: Roger S. Pulwarty, Research Scientist, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/CIRES, Boulder. 50 slides

Climate Variability and Western Water: What Can We Expect?

7 pages

Transboundary Watersheds: Changing Environments and Streams of Thought [abstract]

2 pages

Tiered Approach to Resilience Assessment

Regulatory agencies have long adopted a three-tier framework for risk assessment. We build on this structure to propose a tiered approach for resilience assessment that can be integrated into the existing regulatory processes. Comprehensive approaches to assessing resilience at appropriate and operational scales, reconciling analytical complexity as needed with stakeholder needs and resources available, and ultimately creating actionable recommendations to enhance resilience are still lacking. Our proposed framework consists of tiers by which analysts can select resilience assessment and decision support tools to inform associated management actions relative to the scope and urgency of the risk and the capacity of resource managers to improve system resilience. The resilience management framework proposed is not intended to supplant either risk management or the many existing efforts of resilience quantification method development, but instead provide a guide to selecting tools that are appropriate for the given analytic need. The goal of this tiered approach is to intentionally parallel the tiered approach used in regulatory contexts so that resilience assessment might be more easily and quickly integrated into existing structures and with existing policies

BUILDING A SUSTAINABLE NETWORK OF DROUGHT COMMUNITIES

The first step in managing large-scale (national) collaborations and networks is to consider and address how a group and a potential partnership may match up (Luther, 2005). To explore this concept and many other collaborative concepts, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) hosted a workshop, “Building a Sustainable Network of Drought Communities,” which was facilitated by the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) in Chicago, IL, June 8-9, 2011. The workshop explored current examples of good communication and lessons learned within the realm of drought planning in order to address a future NIDIS Engaging Preparedness Communities (EPC) working group that is solution-focused and collaborative. With the diversity and experience of the participants at this meeting, a wealth of good practices or lessons learned in drought planning, preparedness, and general stakeholder engagement set the pathway for building a sustainable community of drought practitioners. In his opening remarks, NIDIS Director Roger Pulwarty noted that adaptive institutions can show robustness in the following ways: Levels of alertness—monitoring the external world for early warning signs that key assumptions are likely to verify/fail and a commitment to rigorous monitoring of performance; Agility—the ability to react to early warning signs of problems or opportunities; flow of knowledge across components, and to adjust strategies and tactics rapidly to meet changes in the environment; and Alignment—the ability to align the whole organization (and partners) to its mission-policies and practices that give rise to failures/successes. Through an interactive workshop format that used Appreciative Inquiry (framing breakout sessions on success), the group was able to effectively discuss topics such as: • Integrating Planning Efforts • Planning Under Uncertainty • Evaluating, Assessing, and Updating Drought Plans • Leveraging Resources for Risk Management • Implementing Plans and Planning Information • Synthesizing Success Stories and Lessons Learned • Creating a Sustainable Network of Drought Professionals The most common themes resulting from the workshop included: • Importance of networking and collaboration—this is a necessity. Figuring out how to make it seamless is the main goal that the NIDIS EPC Community should foster. Good communication is the key among the drought practitioners and their stakeholders. • Celebrate success—in this future drought network, successes related to drought efforts should be highlighted within the community and to the public. This will help drive future positive interactions and collaborations. It also gives the community a sense of pride. • “Stakeholder Buy-In”—why should stakeholders stay engaged in an ongoing drought community? Especially when there is no drought? Again, good communication and collaborations with other multi-hazard, sustainability, and natural resources planning efforts will help keep drought a priority. • Economic, environmental, and social aspects of planning for drought—these should always be considered. This was a recurrent theme in the workshop. • Planners should not “reinvent the wheel”—planners involved in climate adaptation work can and should reference the best drought planning resources and case studies to help them incorporate drought in their overall planning efforts. • “Have a plan for the plan”—how and who will make it happen? What kind of leadership is needed within the NIDIS EPC community to track its progress and success? • Sharing of resources—as budgets become slimmer, a central location of available resources and the sharing of resources in the area of drought preparedness and mitigation is necessary. Communication regarding these potential resources should also be integrated into this NIDIS EPC community. Since the occurrence of the workshop, several EPC-related activities have taken place, including a webinar in December 2011. This workshop report and additional EPC updates will be placed on the U.S. Drought portal (www.drought.gov). Currently, the American Planning Association (APA), NIDIS and the NDMC are collaborating to produce a Planning Advisory Service (PAS) Report to connect drought mitigation resources with the planning practices of local, regional, tribal and state governments. This builds on the work of the APA’s Hazard Planning Center, which produced a similar PAS Report (sponsored by FEMA) on how to integrate multi-hazard planning into planning practices. In May 2012: The APA’s drought planning project webpage went live and can be found at: http://www.planning.org/research/drought/index.ht

Toward impact-based monitoring of drought and its cascading hazards

Growth in satellite observations and modelling capabilities has transformed drought monitoring, offering near-real-time information. However, current monitoring efforts focus on hazards rather than impacts, and are further disconnected from drought-related compound or cascading hazards such as heatwaves, wildfires, floods and debris flows. In this Perspective, we advocate for impact-based drought monitoring and integration with broader drought-related hazards. Impact-based monitoring will go beyond top-down hazard information, linking drought to physical or societal impacts such as crop yield, food availability, energy generation or unemployment. This approach, specifically forecasts of drought event impacts, would accordingly benefit multiple stakeholders involved in drought planning, and risk and response management, with clear benefits for food and water security. Yet adoption and implementation is hindered by the absence of consistent drought impact data, limited information on local factors affecting water availability (including water demand, transfer and withdrawal), and impact assessment models being disconnected from drought monitoring tools. Implementation of impact-based drought monitoring thus requires the use of newly available remote sensors, the availability of large volumes of standardized data across drought-related fields, and the adoption of artificial intelligence to extract and synthesize physical and societal drought impacts.</p

A USCLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results

The USCLI VAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are the mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next? What is the role of the leading patterns of SST variability, and what are the physical mechanisms linking the remote SST forcing to regional drought, including the role of land-atmosphere coupling? The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM5), and one coupled atmosphere-ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This paper provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the U.S. tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite sign. That is, a cold Pacific and warm Atlantic tend to produce the largest precipitation reductions, whereas a warm Pacific and cold Atlantic tend to produce the greatest precipitation enhancements. Further analysis of the response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing highlights a number of noteworthy and to some extent unexpected results. These include a seasonal dependence of the precipitation response that is characterized by signal-to-noise ratios that peak in spring, and surface temperature signal-to-noise ratios that are both lower and show less agreement among the models than those found for the precipitation response. Another interesting result concerns what appears to be a substantially different character in the surface temperature response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing by the only model examined here that was developed for use in numerical weather prediction. The response to the positive SST trend forcing pattern is an overall surface warming over the world's land areas with substantial regional variations that are in part reproduced in runs forced with a globally uniform SST trend forcing. The precipitation response to the trend forcing is weak in all the models

Drought Information Systems: Improving International and National Linkages

Drought information systems have multiple sub-systems which include an integrated risk assessment, communication and decision support system of which early warning is a central component and output. There are numerous drought systems warning systems being implemented at different scales of governance from the international to the community. An early warning system is much more than a forecast-it is a linked risk information (including peoples’ perception of risk) and communication system that actively engages communities involved in preparedness. The successes illustrate that effective early warning depends upon a multi-sectoral and interdisciplinary collaboration among all concerned actors at each stage in the warning process from monitoring to response and evaluation. However, the links between the community-based approach and the national and global EWSs are relatively weak. The paper identifies pathways for knowledge management and action at the relevant scales for decision-making