Probabilistic equilibria for evolutionarily stable strategies

Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 30(1): pp. 34-36.This comment suggest that an equilibrium framework may be retained, in an evolutionary model such as Gintis’ and with far more realistic results, if rationality is relaxed in a slightly different way than he proposes: decisions are assumed to be related to rewards probabilistically, rather than with certainty. This relaxed concept of rationality gives rise to probabilistic equilibria

Acceptable Contracts, Opportunism, and Rigid Hourly Wages

This paper presents a model of opportunism and contingent wage schedules in labor markets, which is, in a sense, intermediate between the "implicit" and explicit contract approaches. The "expected utility" condition is not a part of the contract, but is a condition for the acceptability of a contract form by employees. Contract forms are constrained by conditions that are enforcable ex post. Of the contract forms examined, the only one mutually acceptable is one with inflexible hourly wages.

Sharing Detailed Research Data Is Associated with Increased Citation Rate

BACKGROUND: Sharing research data provides benefit to the general scientific community, but the benefit is less obvious for the investigator who makes his or her data available. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We examined the citation history of 85 cancer microarray clinical trial publications with respect to the availability of their data. The 48% of trials with publicly available microarray data received 85% of the aggregate citations. Publicly available data was significantly (p = 0.006) associated with a 69% increase in citations, independently of journal impact factor, date of publication, and author country of origin using linear regression. SIGNIFICANCE: This correlation between publicly available data and increased literature impact may further motivate investigators to share their detailed research data

Elevational species richness gradients in a hyperdiverse insect taxon: a global meta-study on geometrid moths

AIMS: We aim to document elevational richness patterns of geometrid moths in a globally replicated, multi-gradient setting, and to test general hypotheses on environmental and spatial effects (i.e. productivity, temperature, precipitation, area, mid-domain effect and human habitat disturbance) on these richness patterns. LOCATION: Twenty-six elevational gradients world-wide (latitudes 28° S to 51° N). METHODS: We compiled field datasets on elevational gradients for geometrid moths, a lepidopteran family, and documented richness patterns across each gradient while accounting for local undersampling of richness. Environmental and spatial predictor variables as well as habitat disturbance were used to test various hypotheses. Our analyses comprised two pathways: univariate correlations within gradients, and multivariate modelling on pooled data after correcting for overall variation in richness among different gradients. RESULTS: The majority of gradients showed midpeak patterns of richness, irrespective of climate and geographical location. The exclusion of human-affected sampling plots did not change these patterns. Support for univariate main drivers of richness was generally low, although there was idiosyncratic support for particular predictors on single gradients. Multivariate models, in agreement with univariate results, provided the strongest support for an effect of area-integrated productivity, or alternatively for an elevational area effect. Temperature and the mid-domain effect received support as weaker, modulating covariates, while precipitation-related variables had no explanatory potential. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Despite the predicted decreasing diversity–temperature relationship in ectotherms, geometrid moths are similar to ants and salamanders as well as small mammals and ferns in having predominantly their highest diversity at mid-elevations. As in those comparative analyses, single or clear sets of drivers are elusive, but both productivity and area appear to be influential. More comparative elevational studies for various insect taxa are necessary for a more comprehensive understanding of elevational diversity and productivity

The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p  90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care

Game theory and public policy

This book provides a critical, selective review of concepts from game theory and their applications in public policy, and further suggests some modifications for some of the models (chiefly in cooperative game theory) to improve their applicability to economics and public policy

Markets, Decisions, And Organizations : intermediate microeconomic theory

New Jerseyxiv, 555 p.: illus.; 24 c