Scales for scales: An open look at the open sea

Fisheries are among the most complex and tightly coupled social-ecological systems. This thesis develops new perspectives on the spatial features of fisheries, and on common pool resources in general. The central model of the work is the Distributed Commons, a commons spread across space with local and cross-boundary interactions. The model is founded in evidence from historical analysis and complexity theory, and offers insights for management and broader sustainable development policy. The second part of the thesis uses empirical analysis, applying Bayesian and econometric techniques, to study the spatial features exposed by the model. Finally, a computational model is calibrated for exploring the consequences of this theory through experiments. The implications of the Distributed Commons model are relevant to many areas of sustainable development, including atmospheric pollution, environmental degradation, and the use of ecosystem resources

The missing risks of climate change

The risks of climate change are enormous, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions to billions. The economic consequences of many of the complex risks associated with climate change cannot, however, currently be quantified. We argue that these unquantified, poorly understood, and often deeply uncertain risks can and should be included in economic evaluations and decision making processes. We present an overview of these unquantified risks and an ontology of them founded on the reasons behind their lack of robust evaluation. These consist of risks missing due to (a) delays in sharing knowledge and expertise across disciplines, (b) spatial and temporal variations of climate impacts, (c) feedbacks and interactions between risks, (d) deep uncertainty in our knowledge, and (e) currently unidentified risks. We highlight collaboration needs within and between the natural and social science communities to address these gaps. We also provide an qpproach for integrating assessments or speculations of these risks in a way which accounts for interdependencies, avoids double counting and makes assumptions clear. Multiple paths exist for engaging with these missing risks, with both model-based quantification and non-model-based qualitative assessments playing crucial roles

Behavioral, morphological, and ecological trait evolution in two clades of New World Sparrows (Aimophila and Peucaea, Passerellidae)

Copyright 2020 Cicero et al. The New World sparrows (Passerellidae) are a large, diverse group of songbirds that vary in morphology, behavior, and ecology. Thus, they are excellent for studying trait evolution in a phylogenetic framework. We examined lability versus conservatism in morphological and behavioral traits in two related clades of sparrows (Aimophila, Peucaea), and assessed whether habitat has played an important role in trait evolution. We first inferred a multi-locus phylogeny which we used to reconstruct ancestral states, and then quantified phylogenetic signal among morphological and behavioral traits in these clades and in New World sparrows more broadly. Behavioral traits have a stronger phylogenetic signal than morphological traits. Specifically, vocal duets and song structure are the most highly conserved traits, and nesting behavior appears to be maintained within clades. Furthermore, we found a strong correlation between open habitat and unpatterned plumage, complex song, and ground nesting. However, even within lineages that share the same habitat type, species vary in nesting, plumage pattern, song complexity, and duetting. Our findings highlight trade-offs between behavior, morphology, and ecology in sparrow diversification

Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change

A large discrepancy exists between the dire impacts that most natural scientists project we could face from climate change and the modest estimates of damages calculated by mainstream economists. Economic assessments of climate change risks are intended to be comprehensive, covering the full range of physical impacts and their associated market and non-market costs, considering the greater vulnerability of poor people and the challenges of adaptation. Available estimates still fall significantly short of this goal, but alternative approaches that have been proposed attempt to address these gaps. This review seeks to provide a common basis for natural scientists, social scientists, and modellers to understand the research challenges involved in evaluating the economic risks of climate change. Focusing on the estimation processes embedded in economic integrated assessment models and the concerns raised in the literature, we summarise the frontiers of research relevant to improving quantitative damage estimates, representing the full complexity of the associated systems, and evaluating the impact of the various economic assumptions used to manage this complexity

New paths for modelling freshwater nature futures

Freshwater ecosystems are exceptionally rich in biodiversity and provide essential benefits to people. Yet they are disproportionately threatened compared to terrestrial and marine systems and remain underrepresented in the scenarios and models used for global environmental assessments. The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) has recently been proposed to advance the contribution of scenarios and models for environmental assessments. This framework places the diverse relationships between people and nature at its core, identifying three value perspectives as points of departure: Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. We explore how the NFF may be implemented for improved assessment of freshwater ecosystems. First, we outline how the NFF and its main value perspectives can be translated to freshwater systems and explore what desirable freshwater futures would look like from each of the above perspectives. Second, we review scenario strategies and current models to examine how freshwater modelling can be linked to the NFF in terms of its aims and outcomes. In doing so, we also identify which aspects of the NFF framework are not yet captured in current freshwater models and suggest possible ways to bridge them. Our analysis provides future directions for a more holistic freshwater model and scenario development and demonstrates how society can benefit from freshwater modelling efforts that are integrated with the value-perspectives of the NFF. Graphical abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.]</p

Developing a sustainability science approach for water systems

We convened a workshop to enable scientists who study water systems from both social science and physical science perspectives to develop a shared language. This shared language is necessary to bridge a divide between these disciplines’ different conceptual frameworks. As a result of this workshop, we argue that we should view socio-hydrological systems as structurally co-constituted of social, engineered, and natural elements and study the “characteristic management challenges” that emerge from this structure and reoccur across time, space, and socioeconomic contexts. This approach is in contrast to theories that view these systems as separately conceptualized natural and social domains connected by bi-directional feedbacks, as is prevalent in much of the water systems research arising from the physical sciences. A focus on emergent characteristic management challenges encourages us to go beyond searching for evidence of feedbacks and instead ask questions such as: What types of innovations have successfully been used to address these challenges? What structural components of the system affect its resilience to hydrological events and through what mechanisms? Are there differences between successful and unsuccessful strategies to solve one of the characteristic management challenges? If so, how are these differences affected by institutional structure and ecological and economic contexts? To answer these questions, social processes must now take center stage in the study and practice of water management. We also argue that water systems are an important class of coupled systems with relevance for sustainability science because they are particularly amenable to the kinds of systematic comparisons that allow knowledge to accumulate. Indeed, the characteristic management challenges we identify are few in number and recur over most of human history and in most geographical locations. This recurrence should allow us to accumulate knowledge to answer the above questions by studying the long historical record of institutional innovations to manage water systems

Prevalence of Symptoms ≤12 Months After Acute Illness, by COVID-19 Testing Status Among Adults - United States, December 2020-March 2023

To further the understanding of post-COVID conditions, and provide a more nuanced description of symptom progression, resolution, emergence, and reemergence after SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-like illness, analysts examined data from the Innovative Support for Patients with SARS-CoV-2 Infections Registry (INSPIRE), a prospective multicenter cohort study. This report includes analysis of data on self-reported symptoms collected from 1,296 adults with COVID-like illness who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 using a Food and Drug Administration-approved polymerase chain reaction or antigen test at the time of enrollment and reported symptoms at 3-month intervals for 12 months. Prevalence of any symptom decreased substantially between baseline and the 3-month follow-up, from 98.4% to 48.2% for persons who received a positive SARS-CoV-2 test results (COVID test-positive participants) and from 88.2% to 36.6% for persons who received negative SARS-CoV-2 test results (COVID test-negative participants). Persistent symptoms decreased through 12 months; no difference between the groups was observed at 12 months (prevalence among COVID test-positive and COVID test-negative participants = 18.3% and 16.1%, respectively; p\u3e0.05). Both groups reported symptoms that emerged or reemerged at 6, 9, and 12 months. Thus, these symptoms are not unique to COVID-19 or to post-COVID conditions. Awareness that symptoms might persist for up to 12 months, and that many symptoms might emerge or reemerge in the year after COVID-like illness, can assist health care providers in understanding the clinical signs and symptoms associated with post-COVID-like conditions

The missing risks of climate change

The risks of climate change are enormous, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions to billions of people. The economic consequences of many of the complex risks associated with climate change cannot, however, currently be quantified. Here we argue that these unquantified, poorly understood and often deeply uncertain risks can and should be included in economic evaluations and decision-making processes. We present an overview of these unquantified risks and an ontology of them founded on the reasons behind their lack of robust evaluation. These consist of risks missing owing to delays in sharing knowledge and expertise across disciplines, spatial and temporal variations of climate impacts, feedbacks and interactions between risks, deep uncertainty in our knowledge, and currently unidentified risks. We highlight collaboration needs within and between the natural and social science communities to address these gaps. We also provide an approach for integrating assessments or speculations of these risks in a way that accounts for interdependencies, avoids double counting and makes assumptions clear. Multiple paths exist for engaging with these missing risks, with both model-based quantification and non-model-based qualitative assessments playing crucial roles. A wide range of climate impacts are understudied or challenging to quantify, and are missing from current evaluations of the climate risks to lives and livelihoods. Strong interdisciplinary collaboration and deeper engagement with uncertainty is needed to properly inform policymakers and the public about climate risks