A system approach for measuring the euro area NAIRU

This paper addresses the issue of measuring the NAIRU for the euro area and assessing the robustness and precision of the obtained estimates. The empirical framework adopted is based on systems combining an Okun-type relationship between cyclical unemployment and the output gap with a Phillips curve and stochastic laws of motion for the NAIRU and potential output. Such systems have been estimated using Kalman-filter techniques. The aim of this approach is double: on the one hand, recent advances in the mentioned techniques are exploited, also with the aim of assessing the degree of uncertainty around the derived measures; on the other hand, the robustness of the approach is tested by looking at alternative versions of the systems themselves. The results obtained point to an estimate of the area-wide NAIRU that is robust to changes in the underlying models. This robustness is shown to hold both in terms of the mean - i.e., the shape of the resulting NAIRU - and the variance of the process. The latter is derived through bootstrap exercises using the models alone or pooled together. The evidence found suggests that the increase in the aggregate NAIRU that took place in the early part of the sample period has come to a halt and may be about to be reversed. The estimated final level for the NAIRU is around 10 per cent. Furthermore, the bootstrap exercises point to confidence bands close to 1 per cent around the estimated value. JEL Classification: C11, C15, E31, E32Bootstrap, Kalman filter, NAIRU, Unobserved Components

Is forecasting with large models informative? Assessing the role of judgement in macroeconomic forecasts

We evaluate residual projection strategies in the context of a large-scale macro model of the euro area and smaller benchmark time-series models. The exercises attempt to measure the accuracy of model-based forecasts simulated both out-of-sample and in-sample. Both exercises incorporate alternative residual-projection methods, to assess the importance of unaccounted-for breaks in forecast accuracy and off-model judgment. Conclusions reached are that simple mechanical residual adjustments have a significant impact of forecasting accuracy irrespective of the model in use, ostensibly due to the presence of breaks in trends in the data. The testing procedure and conclusions are applicable to a wide class of models and thus of general interest. JEL Classification: C52, E30, E32, E37Forecast accuracy, Forecast Projections, In-Sample, Macro-model, Out-of-Sample, Structural Break

The role of oil prices in the euro area economy since the 1970s

This paper explores the role of oil prices in the euro area economy since the 1970s by applying a VAR framework with time varying parameters and stochastic volatility in which oil supply and global demand shocks are identified. Our results show that both types of shock contributed substantially to the oil price surges during historical oil crises and likewise to those over the past decade. Counterfactual histories of the price and activity variables, moreover, reveal much larger adverse contributions of both shocks to HICP inflation and GDP in the first half of the sample than in the second, which suggests that changes related to these shocks have contributed to the Great Moderation. Impulse responses, moreover, show that a decline in the pass through of the two shocks has added to the moderating contribution over time, while variance decompositions indicate no change in the relative importance of the two shocks overtime. JEL Classification: E3euro area, Great Moderation, Oil prices, stochastic volatility, time varying parameter VAR model

Are survey-based inflation expections in the euro area informative?

This paper contributes to the old theme of testing for rationality of inflation expectations in surveys, using two very different surveys in parallel. Focusing on the euro area and using two well-known surveys that include questions on inflation expectations, the Consensus Forecast survey and the European Commission Household survey, a battery of tests is applied to inflation forecasts. Tests are based on a preliminary discussion of the meaning of Rational Expectations in the macro-economic literature, and how this maps into specific econometric tests. Tests used are both standard ones already reported in the literature and less standard ones of potential interest within the framework discussed. Tests focus on in-sample properties of the forecasts, both in static and dynamic settings, and in out-ofsample tests to explore the performance of the forecasts in a simulated out-of-sample setting. As a general conclusion, both surveys are found to contain potentially useful information. Although the Consensus Forecasts survey is the best one in terms of quality of the forecasts, rationality in the European Commission Household survey, once measurement issues are taken into account, cannot be ruled out

Error-correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single-equation Framework

A new test is proposed for cointegration in a single-equation framework where the regressors are weakly exogenous for the parameters of interest. The test is denoted as an error-correction mechanism (ECM) test and is based upon the ordinary least squares coefficient of the lagged dependent variable in an autoregressive distributed lag model augmented with leads of the regressors. The limit distributions of the standardized coeffi cient and t-ratio versions of the ECM tests are obtained and critical values are provided. These limit distributions do not depend upon nuisance parameters but they depend on the number of regressors. Finally, we compare their power properties with those of other cointegration tests available in the literature and find the circumstances under which the ECM tests have a better performance.Publicad

Diffusion index-based inflation forecasts for the euro area

Diffusion indexes based on dynamic factors have recently been advocated by Stock and Watson (1998), and further used to perform forecasting tests by the same authors on US data. This technique is explored for the euro area using a multi-country data set and a broad array of variables, in order to test the inflation forecasting performance of extracted factors at the aggregate euro area level. First, a description of factors extracted from different data sets is performed using a number of different approaches. Conclusions reached are that nominal phenomena in the original variables might be well captured in-sample using the factor approach. Out-of-sample tests have more ambiguous interpretation, as factors seem to be good leading indicators of inflation, but the comparative advantage of the factors is less clear. Nevertheless, alternative indicators such as unemployment or money growth do not outperform them JEL Classification: C53, E31, E37

A multi-country trend indicator for euro area inflation: computation and properties

This paper applies the 'diffusion indices' approach proposed by Stock and Watson [1998] to the euro area. Following their methodology a set of factors are extracted from a balanced and unbalanced panel dataset comprising nominal variables for 11 countries of the euro area. The estimated factors appear to be fairly stable over time. It is also shown that the first factor is cointegrated with area wide HICP and private consumption deflator supporting the idea that it represents 'a common trend of inflation' for the euro area. The other factors, which are stationary instead, seem to capture dispersion of inflation across countries. There is moreover evidence of unilateral causality from the first factor with respect to HICP, suggesting that this factor could be valuably employed in forecasting euro area inflation JEL Classification: E52, E58

Are survey-based inflation expections in the euro area informative?

This paper contributes to the old theme of testing for rationality of inflation expectations in surveys, using two very different surveys in parallel. Focusing on the euro area and using two well-known surveys that include questions on inflation expectations, the Consensus Forecast survey and the European Commission Household survey, a battery of tests is applied to inflation forecasts. Tests are based on a preliminary discussion of the meaning of Rational Expectations in the macro-economic literature, and how this maps into specific econometric tests. Tests used are both standard ones already reported in the literature and less standard ones of potential interest within the framework discussed. Tests focus on in-sample properties of the forecasts, both in static and dynamic settings, and in out-ofsample tests to explore the performance of the forecasts in a simulated out-of-sample setting. As a general conclusion, both surveys are found to contain potentially useful information. Although the Consensus Forecasts survey is the best one in terms of quality of the forecasts, rationality in the European Commission Household survey, once measurement issues are taken into account, cannot be ruled out. JEL Classification: C40, C42, C50, C53, E37inflation forecasting, Rational Expectations, tests of rationality

A macroeconomic evaluation of the Spanish monetary policy transmission mechanism

Este documento analiza el mecanismo de transmision de la politica monetaria, con ayuda de un modelo macroeconometrico de la economia española relativamente estandar. Se simula un incremento temporal en los tipos de interes de intervencion bajo diferentes regimenes del tipo de cambio, y se procede a una descomposicion de sus canales de transmision. El ejercicio realza la importancia tanto de la inversion privada como del tipo de cambio en el proceso de transmision. Tambien se toma en consideracion la influencia del ciclo economico. (rmz) (igg

Global policy at the zero lower bound in a large-scale DSGE model

The purpose of this paper is to analyse whether fiscal policies can alleviate the effects of the zero lower bound (ZLB) on interest rates and if they should be coordinated internationally. The analysis is carried out using EAGLE, a DSGE model of the global economy. We consider that the fiscal shocks are temporary and that fiscal policy retains full credibility at all times. In this setup we find significant non-linearities in a ZLB situation that amplify the effects of fiscal shocks compared to the non-ZLB case. International coordination is helpful but does not play a major role in the results. JEL Classification: E40, E62, E63, F42DSGE Models, Fiscal Moultipliers, monetary policy, zero lower bound