An Agent-Based Exploration of the Hurricane Forecast-Evacuation System Dynamics

In the mainland US, the hurricane-forecast-evacuation system is uncertain, dynamic, and complex. As a result, it is difficult to know whether to issue warnings, implement evacuation management strategies, or how to make forecasts more useful for evacuations. This dissertation helps address these needs, by holistically exploring the system’s complex dynamics from a new perspective. Specifically, by developing – and using – an empirically informed, agent-based modeling framework called FLEE (Forecasting Laboratory for Exploring the Evacuation-system). The framework represents the key, interwoven elements to hurricane evacuations: the natural hazard (hurricane), the human system (information flow, evacuation decisions), the built environment (road infrastructure), and connections between systems (forecasts and warning information, traffic). The dissertation’s first article describes FLEE’s conceptualization, implementation, and validation, and presents proof-of-concept experiments illustrating its behaviors when key parameters are modified. In the second article, sensitivity analyses are conducted on FLEE to assess how evacuations change with evacuation management strategies and policies (public transportation, contraflow, evacuation order timing), evolving population characteristics (population growth, urbanization), and real and synthetic forecast scenarios impacting the Florida peninsula (Irma, Dorian, rapid-onset version of Irma). The third article begins to explore how forecast elements (e.g., track and intensity) contribute to evacuation success, and whether improved forecast accuracy over time translates to improved evacuations outcomes. In doing so, we demonstrate how coupled natural-human models – including agent-based models –can be a societally-relevant alternative to traditional metrics of forecast accuracy. Lastly, the fourth article contains a brief literature review of inequities in transportation access and their implication on evacuation modeling. Together, the articles demonstrate how modeling frameworks like FLEE are powerful tools capable of studying the hurricane-forecast-evacuation system across many real and hypothetical forecast-population-infrastructure scenarios. The research compliments, and builds-upon empirical work, and supports researchers, practitioners, and policy-makers in hazard risk management, meteorology, and related disciplines, thereby offering the promise of direct applications to mitigate hurricane losses

On Establishing a Climatology of Gust Factors and Assessing Their Ability to Forecast Wind Gusts in Milwaukee, WI

Wind gust forecasts are difficult given the small spatial and temporal scales at which they occur. As a result, a variety of statistical and numerical modeling approaches are used to forecast wind gusts, but a best practice has yet to be determined. One statistical approach, called a gust factor, is advantageous in its simplicity, and is often used operationally. Derived empirically from hourly and one-minute wind observations, we establish a climatology of gust factors for the 2000 to 2014 period at Milwaukee, WI. The gust factors are then stratified by wind speed, direction, time of day and year, and stability to gain insight into the potential sensitivities of the gust factor. Once the climatology of gust factors was established, the ability of the gust factor to forecast wind gusts was assessed deterministically for a variety of wind scenarios. The results suggest that gust factors derived from the standard hourly observational data tend to under-forecast the peak wind each hour. Some stratified gust factors show improvements relative to the non-stratified, mean gust factors. However, nearly all gust factor models show improvements relative to persistence and climatology forecasts

Quantifying the search for solid Li-ion electrolyte materials by anion: a data-driven perspective

We compile data and machine learned models of solid Li-ion electrolyte performance to assess the state of materials discovery efforts and build new insights for future efforts. Candidate electrolyte materials must satisfy several requirements, chief among them fast ionic conductivity and robust electrochemical stability. Considering these two requirements, we find new evidence to suggest that optimization of the sulfides for fast ionic conductivity and wide electrochemical stability may be more likely than optimization of the oxides, and that the oft-overlooked chlorides and bromides may be particularly promising families for Li-ion electrolytes. We also find that the nitrides and phosphides appear to be the most promising material families for electrolytes stable against Li-metal anodes. Furthermore, the spread of the existing data in performance space suggests that fast conducting materials that are stable against both Li metal and a >4V cathode are exceedingly rare, and that a multiple-electrolyte architecture is a more likely path to successfully realizing a solid-state Li metal battery by approximately an order of magnitude or more. Our model is validated by its reproduction of well-known trends that have emerged from the limited existing data in recent years, namely that the electronegativity of the lattice anion correlates with ionic conductivity and electrochemical stability. In this work, we leverage the existing data to make solid electrolyte performance trends quantitative for the first time, building a roadmap to complement material discovery efforts around desired material performance.Comment: Main text is 41 pages with 3 figures and 2 tables; attached supplemental information is 8 pages with 3 figure

Kinetics of Mashing in Beer Brewing Process

The process called mashing, which steeps malted grain in water at specific temperatures in order to optimize enzymatic sugar production, is critical for the beer brewing process. Each kind of grain used to make beer could have unique optimal mashing temperatures since the α- and β-amylase enzymes that produce the sugars are a result of genetic differences. Beer has mainly been brewed with barley, wheat, rye, and less common grains such as corn and rice. Gluten free beer options are very limited, and this is problematic for those suffering from Celiac disease. Quinoa is the focus grain of this project as it is gluten free. An optimal mashing temperature profile for barley and quinoa was measured by derivatizing the sugars in order to use GC-MS analysis. A calibration curve was produced for the four main sugars (fructose, glucose, maltose, and sucrose) using the method of external standards with an internal standard (2-deoxy-D-glucose). The mashing profile of barley was analyzed to compare with previously found literature values. Quinoa was then analyzed in the same way to produce a mashing profile specific to it

Birds of Bylot Island and Adjacent Baffin Island, Northwest Territories, Canada, 1979 To 1997

Observations of birds in the Bylot Island region from 1979 to 1997, with emphasis on the southwest part of the island each summer since 1989, revealed an avifauna composed of 63 species, of which 35 were breeding. Thirteen species are new records for the region, including one for the Northwest Territories (black-headed gull, Larus ridibundus) and two for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (killdeer, Charadrius vociferus; mew gull, Larus canus). Two species, Canada goose (Brant canadensis) and red knot (Calidris canutus), were also confirmed as breeders for the first time in the region. A summary of these avifaunal observations, along with a review of previous observations made in the region, allows changes in population size and status of individual species to be identified. These records combined with those from earlier studies give a total of 74 species for the Bylot Island region, 45 confirmed as breeders. This makes the avian community in the area one of the most diverse known north of 70° N latitude in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.Nos observations d'oiseaux dans la région de l'île Bylot entre 1979 et 1997, et en particulier dans la région du sud-ouest depuis 1989, ont permis de recenser une avifaune de 63 espèces, dont 35 nicheuses. Treize n'avaient jamais été rapportées précédemment dans la région, incluant une nouvelle mention pour les Territoires du Nord-Ouest (mouette rieuse, Larus ridibundus) et deux pour l'archipel arctique canadien (pluvier kildir, Charadrius vociferus; goéland cendré, Larus canus). De plus, nous avons confirmé la nidification de deux nouvelles espèces pour la région, soit la bernache du Canada (Branta canadensis) et le bécasseau maubèche (Calidris canutus). Nous présentons le sommaire de ces observations, de même qu'une revue de la littérature touchant les oiseaux de la région et nous discutons des changements récents dans l'état des populations de certaines espèces. Avec un total de 74 espèces et plus de 45 nicheurs confirmés, la région comprend probablement l'avifaune la plus diversifiée de l'archipel arctique canadien au nord du 70° de lat. N

Breeding, Moulting, and Site Fidelity of Brant (Branta bernicla) on Bathurst and Seymour Islands in the Canadian High Arctic

We studied the breeding and moulting ecology of eastern High Arctic brant Branta bernicla hrota on Bathurst and Seymour Islands in the central Canadian High Arctic from 1968 to 1989. In most years, brant arrived in Polar Bear Pass, Bathurst Islnd, during the first few days of June (earliest 28 May 1977), where they fed for several days in small flocks before dispersing to nesting areas. First eggs were usually laid on 13 June and the peak of nest initiation occurred about 16 June. The mean clutch size was 4.5 eggs, and the mean incubation period 23 days. Broods were raised along the shorelines of lakes, ponds, estuaries, and rivers. Goslings were capable of flight by 42-43 days. During the 10 years when the studies were most intensive (1974-77 and 1984-89), there were three years in which brant did not attempt to nest (1974, 1986, 1988); they nested in all other years and were known to produce fledged young in at least four of them. Nesting was not attempted when the mean temperature for the period 1-20 June was below -3 C. On Bathurst Island in 1987, arctic foxes (Alopex lagopus) preyed heavily on brant eggs, and no young were fledged. Nonbreeding adults assembled in small flocks to moult around nerby inland lakes, in river valleys, and at the mouths of estuaries, and concentrated in the latter in cold summers when inland sites had heavier ice cover. The flightless period began about 6 July and lasted 20-22 days. The recapture or resighting of brant marked on Bathurst Island showed that many adults returned in subsequent years to the same breeding territories, and in nonbreeding years they moulted nearby. A smaller proportion of the brant that had been marked as goslings and yearlings also returned to the island. In comparison with most other stocks of North American brant, those we studied bred at high latitude. That choice of breeding site subjected them to periodic breeding failures caused by cold springs and to a reduced availability of plant biomass, but it offered the advantage of reduced spring snow depth and a full 24 h of daylight for feeding during nesting and brood rearing. By using small wetlands which thaw early in close proximity to nesting sites, these brant were able to initiate egg laying relatively early and produce large clutches in most years. The low availability of plant biomass in the High Arctic probably explained the wide dispersal and low densities of these brant during breeding and moulting.De 1968 à 1989, nous avons étudié l'écologie de reproduction et de mue de la bernache cravant à ventre pâle Branta bernicla hrota dans les îles Bathurst et Seymour situées dans la partie centrale de l'Extrême-Arctique canadien. En général, les bernaches cravants arrivaient dans la vallée Polar Bear de l'île Bathurst durant les premiers jours de juin (le plus tôt étant le 28 mai 1977); elles s'alimentaient par petits groupes pendant plusieurs jours avant de se disperser vers les sites de nidification. Les premiers oeufs étaient généralement pondus le 13 juin et le pic du début de la ponte se situait vers le 16 juin. La taille moyenne de la couvée était de 4,5 oeufs/nid et la durée moyenne d'incubation était de 23 jours. Les couvées étaient élevées en bordure des lacs, des étangs, des estuaires et des cours d'eau. Les oisons étaient capables de voler à 42 ou 43 jours. Au cours des 10 années d'étude intensive (1974-77 et 1984-89), il y en a eu trois pendant lesquelles les bernaches cravants n'ont pas essayé de nicher (1974, 1986, 1988); par contre, elles ont niché toutes les autres années et ont réussi à élever des oisons jusqu'à l'âge d'envol au moins quatre de ces années. Les bernaches cravants n'ont pas essayé de nicher les années où la température moyenne pour la période allant du 1er au 20 juin était inférieure à -3 °C. En 1987, des renards arctiques Alopex lagopus ont prélevé quantité d'oeufs de bernaches cravants dans l'île Bathurst et aucun oison n'a survécu jusqu'à l'âge d'envol. Des adultes non reproducteurs se rassemblaient localement en petits groupes pour muer près des lacs, des rivières et de l'embouchure des estuaires, préférant, durant les étés froids, des estuaires normalement plus dégagés de glace que des sites à l'intérieur des terres. La période de mue débutait autour du 6 juillet et durait de 20 à 22 jours environ. Des bernaches cravants qui avaient été marquées dans l'île Bathurst y ont été observées de nouveau ou y ont été recapturées durant les années subséquentes, prouvant ainsi qu'un grand nombre d'adultes reviennent sur les mêmes aires de reproduction et, pendant les années de non-reproduction, elles muaient à proximité. Une proportion moindre de bernaches cravants marquées au stade juvénile (soit < 2 mois, soit à l'âge d'un an) sont aussi revenues à l'île Bathrust. Comparées à d'autres populations nord-américaines de bernaches, celles que nous avons étudiées se reproduisent à une latitude élevée. En nichant dans l'Extrême-Arctique, cette population était sujette à des échecs périodiques dus à des printemps froids ainsi qu'à une disponibilité réduite de biomasse végétale. Elle bénéficiait par contre d'une faible accumulation de neige au printemps et de 24 heures quotidiennes de clarté pour se nourrir pendant la nidification et l'élevage des oisons. En exploitant de petites superficies de terres humides qui dégèlent tôt, à proximité des sites de nidification, ce bernaches cravants pouvaient, la plupart des années, pondre relativement tôt en saison et produire des couvées de bonne taille. La disponibilité réduite de biomasse végétale dans l'Extrême-Arctique expliquait probablement la dispersion étendue et les faibles densités de ces bernaches cravants en période de reproduction et de mue

The Numbers and Distribution of Greater Snow Geese on Bylot Island and near Jungersen Bay, Baffin Island, in 1988 And 1983

We conducted aerial photographic surveys of greater snow geese on portions of Bylot Island and northern Baffin Island during August 1988 to determine whether changes had occurred since a similar survey in 1983. On the 1600 sq/km south plain of Bylot Island, using a quadrat system and stratified random sampling, we estimated a population of 26,300 breeding adults, 5,400 failed- and non-breeding adults, and 41,400 goslings; the breeding component had increased by 58% from the 1983 survey. In a 274 sq/km study area in Jungersen Bay on northern Baffin Island, we conducted total counts and recorded 2,555 adult breeders, 546 failed- and non-breeders, and 4,127 goslings; the breeding segment had declined by 15% since 1983. The later date of the survey in 1988, relative to that of 1983, is believed to have been the main cause of a more even distribution of broods among strata on Bylot Island and may have contributed to an underestimation of breeding geese at Jungersen Bay. Both survey areas supported high densities of breeding greater snow geese in both years. Bylot Island supported a similar proportion of the entire greater snow goose breeding population in 1988 (13%) and 1983 (15%).Key words: Anser caerulescens atlanticus, Baffin Island, breeding distribution, Bylot Island, Canada, goose surveys, greater snow gooseRÉSUMÉ. En août 1988, nous avons effectué un inventaire heliporté-photographique des Grandes Oies des neiges sur une partie des îles Bylot et Baffin afin de déterminer s’il y avait eu des changements d’effectifs depuis 1983. Nous avons employé un système de quadrats et un échantillonnage aléatoire stratifié sur une surface de 1600 km2 de la plaine sud de l’île Bylot; une estimation de 26 300 adultes nicheurs, 5400 adultes non-nicheurs, et 41 400 oisons fut obtenue. Le nombre d’adultes nicheurs avait augmenté de 58% depuis 1983. Dans une aire d’étude de 274 km’ à Jungersen Bay dans la partie nord de l’île Baffin, nous avons dénombré 2555 adultes nicheurs, 546 adultes non-nicheurs, et 4127 oisons; le nombre d’adultes nicheurs avait diminué de 15% depuis 1983. La date plus tardive de l’inventaire de 1988, en comparaison avec celui de 1983, semblait être la cause d’une répartition plus égale des couvées d’oies parmi les différents strates à l’île Bylot, et a peut être conduit à une sous-estimation à Jungersen Bay. Les deux régions ont supporté des densités élevées de couvées de Grandes Oies des neiges durant les deux années. L’île Bylot a servi de lieu de nidification à une proportion similaire de la population totale de reproducteurs en 1988 (13%) et en 1983 (15%).Mots clés: aire de nidification, Anser caerulescens atlanticus, Canada, Grande Oie des neiges, île Baffiin, île Bylot, inventaire d’oie

Relationship of School Achievement to Animistic Thinking and the Size-Weight Illusion in Grades One, Two, and Three

Educational Psycholog