Gravity Equation and Trade Agreements: A Different Econometric Approach

This paper is aimed at multiplicatively estimating the parameters of the gravity equation by using the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood (PPML) estimator, and taking heteroskedasticity into account at the same time. Besides, in order to compare the results, the model will be estimated trough OLS and Tobit, and the precision of the different estimators will be assessed by a set of specification tests. Results indicate that the effects of Preferential Trade Agreements are very sensitive to the method chosen to estimate the gravity model and the results obtained under PPML are the most reliable.Preferential Trade Agreements, Gravity Model, Trade Creation and Trade Diversion, Generalized Lineal Models

Causes and effects of economic integration in Latin America

El tema central a abordar en este artículo es la medición de las causas y efectos de los acuerdos de integración en Latino América. Se consideran los efectos de la integración en el ALADI y el Mercosur sobre las cadenas de valor o producción en red, sobre las exportaciones de bienes, el grado de profundización y la calidad institucional de estos acuerdos. En este análisis se distingue entre los efectos en el margen intensivo y en el margen extensivo de comercio. Finalmente, se analizan los factores que contribuyen a la creación o profundización de los acuerdos comerciales en Latino América, distinguiendo entre determinantes económicos, geográficos y político-institucionales.The central issue to be addressed in this article is the measurement of the causes and effects of integration agreements in Latin America. The role of integration of two trade agreements, LAIA and Mercosur, in value chains or production networks, in exports of goods, as well as the degree of depth and institutional quality of these trade agreements are studied. In this analysis, a distinction is made between the intensive margin and the extensive margin of trade. Finally, the factors contributing to creating or strengthening trade agreements in Latin America, by distinguishing between economic, geographic, political and institutional determinants, are analyzed

The education networks of Latin America. Effects on bilateral trade during and after the cold war

This paper tests the effects of students´ movements from eleven LAIA countries into nine OECD economies on bilateral trade flows during years 1971 to 2012. We use several cofactors, different econometric specifications and controls for endogeneity. Our main results are that education networks have positive and significant effects on bilateral exports and imports. The impact of students on trade is higher during the cold war period than afterwards, and it concentrates on differentiated goods. Political, cultural and institutional similarities decrease the effect. We find the impact of education networks to be robust to different specifications and regressors.El presente trabajo analiza el efecto sobre el intercambio comercial bilateral del stock de estudiantes internacionales provenientes de once países de ALADI en nueve países de la OCDE, para el periodo 1971-2012. Se utilizan distintos cofactores y especificaciones econométricas, y se controla por endogeneidad. Se encuentra que las redes educativas tienen efectos positives y significativos sobre importaciones y exportaciones. El impacto es mayor durante la Guerra Fría que luego de la misma, y se concentra en los bienes diferenciados. Similitudes políticas, institucionales y culturales disminuyen el efecto. El impacto de las redes educativas es robusto a distintas especificaciones y regresores.https://aaep.org.ar/anales/works/works2015/Murat_AAEP2015.pdfFil: Murat, Marina. University of Modena and Reggio Emilia. Department of Economics; Italy.Fil: Recalde, María Luisa. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto de Economía y Finanzas; Argentina.Fil: Degiovanni, Pedro. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto de Economía y Finanzas; Argentina.Economía, Econometrí

On the relationship between trade agreements and institutional and political factors

The present paper focuses on the importance that institutional and political factors play on Latin American (LA) economic integration, where there is an increasing heterogeneity among countries. By focusing on both a cross-sectional and a panel data analysis for the LA integration process, we prove that institutional and political factors do matter. Furthermore, the role of these factors has been strengthened at the beginning of the present century due two main issues: the 11S and the Revolución Bolivariana. Finally, our analysis also confirms that geographic, economic and trade policy aspects are key elements for the formation and enhancement of economic integration agreements.En el presente documento se busca determinar la importancia que tienen los factores institucionales y políticos sobre el proceso de integración económica de Latinoamérica, donde se presenta una heterogeneidad creciente entre los distintos países. Mediante un análisis de sección cruzada y datos de panel, se demuestra que los factores institucionales y políticos importan. Además su rol ha ido en aumento al comenzar el presente siglo, debido a dos circunstancias: el 11 de Septiembre y la Revolución Bolivariana. Por último, nuestro análisis confirma que los aspectos geográficos, económicos y de política comercial son claves para la formación y ampliación de los acuerdos de integración económica.http://www.aaep.org.ar/anales/works/works2015/Florensa_AAEP2015.pdfFil: Florensa, Luis Marcelo. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto de Economía y Finanzas; Argentina.Fil: Márquez-Ramos, Laura. Universitat Jaume I. Facultad de Ciencias Jurídicas y Económicas. Departamento de Economía. Instituto de Economía Internacional; España.Fil: Recalde, María Luisa. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto de Economía y Finanzas; Argentina.Otras Economía y Negocio

Latin American integration and the survival of trade relationships

In a previous work, Besedes et al. (2015) studied the effects of trade agreements on the survival of trade relationships. Their main results were that trade agreements significantly increase the survival of trade relationships which had already started when the agreement takes place. Moreover, they find that these agreements increase the hazard and reduce the initial volumes for those that start afterwards.These results, however, may not be homogeneous across regions as aggregation may hide different reactions of trade to economic integration agreements (EIAs).In the present paper we use annual trade data at the 5-digit SITC level for Latin America exports to over 150 countries from 1962 to 2009. We analyze whether the effects of EIAs on trade survival, initial volumes of trade and export growthare the same as those described for the whole world (mostly, they are not).As our main contribution, we examine if these effects differ depending on the required depth for an agreement to be considered as an EIA (they do).We also test if the quality of trade agreements, as measured by Kohl et al. (2016) has an impact on the survival of trade relationships (it does).http://www.etsg.orgFil: Recalde, María Luisa. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto de Economía y Finanzas; Argentina.Fil: Florensa, Luis Marcelo. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto de Economía y Finanzas; Argentina.Fil: Degiovanni, Pedro Gabriel. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto de Economía y Finanzas; Argentina.Economía, Econometrí

Is the effect of the economic integration on trade margins time sensitive? Sectoral evidence from Latin America

The present paper follows the methodology of Baier et al (2011) and Hummels and Klenow (2005) to determine the effects of different levels of EIAs (non-reciprocal PTA, PTA, FTA and customs unions) on the intensive and the extensive margins of trade. It uses a gravity equation for the exports of eleven countries of the Latin American Integration Association (LAIA) to 161 partners over the period 1962-2009. The long time period considered will allow us to determine whether different effects on trade margins might arise on the following two sub-periods: 1962-1989 and from 1989 onwards (before and after the proliferation of regional integration agreements and the deepening of the liberalization process in the region). Finally, we focus on those specific sectors in which Latin American countries present a higher relative participation.http://www.etsg.org/ETSG2013/Papers/201.pdfFil: Florensa, Luis Marcelo. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto de Economía y Finanzas; Argentina.Fil: Marquez-Ramos, Laura. Universitat Jaume I. Departamento de Economía; España.Fil: Recalde, María Luisa. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto de Economía y Finanzas; Argentina.Economía, Econometrí

Understanding the determinants of economic integration in Latin America

When signing or enhancing trade agreements with Latin America, political and institutional factors play a more important role at present compared with their role in the past. In addition, a better institutional framework increases covered and legally enforceable provisions in Latin America trade agreements. This paper analyzes the determinants of economic integration in Latin America and the institutional quality of signed trade agreements with this region. By focusing on both a discrete choice and a linear framework, the study results prove that economic, geographic, institutional, and political factors influence economic integration. This is because these aspects are key elements in the formation and enhancement of trade agreements both within and outside Latin America. This study considers the role of additional exogenous political facts, such as the September 11 attacks in New York City, and the Revolución Bolivariana, a leftist movement in Venezuela, which affected economic integration in Latin America.http://www.e-jei.org/journal/view.php?number=2013600134publishedVersionFil: Márquez-Ramos, Laura. University of Adelaide. Institute for International Trade; Australia.Fil: Márquez-Ramos, Laura. Universitat Jaume I. Department of Economics; España.Fil: Florensa, Luis Marcelo. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto de Economía y Finanzas; Argentina.Fil: Recalde, María Luisa. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto de Economía y Finanzas; Argentina.Economía, Econometrí

Is the effect of economic integration on trade margins time sensitive? Sectoral evidence from Latin America

The present paper follows the methodology of Baier et al (2011) and Hummels and Klenow (2005) to determine the effects of different levels of EIAs on the intensive and the extensive margins of trade. The long time period considered will allow us to determine whether different effects on trade margins might arise on the following two sub-periods: 1962-1989 and from 1990 onwards (before and after the proliferation of regional integration agreements and the deepening of the liberalization process in the region). Finally, we focus on those specific sectors in which Latin American countries present a higher relative participation.El presente trabajo estudia los efectos de diferentes niveles de integración económica sobre los márgenes intensivo y extensivo de comercio, siguiendo la metodología de Baier et al (2011) y Hummels y Klenow (2005). La longitud del periodo bajo estudio permite determinar si los efectos sobre los márgenes de comercio han sido diferentes para los sub periodos 1962-1989 y 1990-2009, es decir antes y después de la proliferación de acuerdos de integración regional y la profundización del proceso de liberalización comercial que tuvo lugar en la región. Por último, el trabajo analiza los efectos sobre aquellos sectores donde los países latinoamericanos presentan una mayor participación relativa.http://www.aaep.org.ar/anales/works/works2013/florensa.pdfFil: Florensa, Luis Marcelo. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto de Economía y Finanzas; Argentina.Fil: Marquez-Ramos, Laura. Universitat Jaume I. Departamento de Economía; España.Fil: Recalde, María Luisa. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto de Economía y Finanzas; Argentina.Economía, Econometrí

Latin American integration effects on trade relationships: survival, growth and initial volume

In this paper, we analyze the effects of economic integration agreements on trade survival, initial volumes of trade, and export growth. We focus on annual trade data at the 5-digit SITC level for Latin America exports to over 150 countries from 1962 to 2009 and examine whether these effects differ depending on the required depth of the agreement. We also test whether the quality of trade agreements has an impact on the survival of trade relationships. Results indicate that the effects of trade agreements in Latin America differ from those found in previous studies; that those effects are also different depending on the trade agreements depth, and that higher quality agreements lead to higher increases in the survival rate of trade relationships.http://cesmaa.eu/journals/jaes/publishedVersionFil: Degiovanni, Pedro Gabriel. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto de Economía y Finanzas; Argentina.Fil: Florensa, Luis Marcelo. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto de Economía y Finanzas; Argentina.Fil: Recalde, María Luisa. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultasd de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto de Econoomía y Finanzas; Argentina.Economía, Econometrí

Interdependence of preferential trade agreements in Latin America

Fil: Florensa, Luis Marcelo. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina.Fil: Recalde, María Luisa. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina.The aim of this paper is to identify the main sources of interdependence that have taken place in Latin America and that may have influenced the signing of a high number of PTAs in this region.That is, we study empirically whether the signing of a new preferential trade agreement or the expansion of existing ones creates incentives for other countries or pairs of countries in the region to join or form new PTAs.To achieve this goal we are going to apply two empirical strategies: on the one hand, the one used by Egger and Larch (2008) and Baldwin and Jaimovich (2012) and on the other, the one applied by Baier, Bergstrand and Mariutto (2014). A probit is estimated in both strategies, as the dependent variable reflects the existence or absence of an agreement between a given pair ofcountries. To predict both, PTA membership levels and changes, the two methodologies use panel data where the explanatory variables are lagged to avoid a bias associated with feedback effects.Fil: Florensa, Luis Marcelo. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina.Fil: Recalde, María Luisa. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina.Economía, Econometrí