Un modèle économétrique de l’économie canadienne pendant l’entre-deux-guerres

Even though the Canadian Great Depression was one of the worst in the Western World, there are no recent articles where the phenomenon is analyzed as a whole. In this paper, the Interwar business cycles are analyzed in the context of amacroeconomic model with monthly data. The model features the specification of the money supply process, of the balance of payments and of the interaction between these variables.The results of estimation of the model indicate that Canada followed the US in its depression because it adhered too closely to the rules of the GoId Standard. Canada should have depreciated its currency at least to the extent of the depreciation of the pound sterling with respect to the US dollar. The results also indicate that the Finance Act did not play the important role that was assigned to it in the literature (Courchene, 1969)

Un modèle économétrique de l’économie canadienne pendant l’entre-deux-guerres

Even though the Canadian Great Depression was one of the worst in the Western World, there are no recent articles where the phenomenon is analyzed as a whole. In this paper, the Interwar business cycles are analyzed in the context of a macroeconomic model with monthly data. The model features the specification of the money supply process, of the balance of payments and of the interaction between these variables.

La politique monétaire canadienne : entre l’arbre, l’écorce et la forêt

Depuis quelques années, la Banque du Canada a adopté un objectif ferme de stabilité des prix. Dans ce texte, nous caractérisons les gestes de politique véritablement posés par la Banque en regard de son objectif. Contrairement aux analyses habituelles qui se concentrent sur l’évolution des conditions sur les marchés financiers et de change, nous insistons sur des indicateurs systématiquement liés aux actions de la politique monétaire. Nos résultats indiquent une forme d’antinomie entre l’objectif de long terme et les actions posées dans une perspective de court terme. Par exemple, alors que plusieurs observateurs ont qualifié la politique de très restrictive en 1989, nous décelons plutôt une prédominance de gestes expansionnistes ou, au mieux, neutres. Ces contradictions entre les gestes posés dans un cadre discrétionnaire, les déclarations de la Banque et son objectif de long terme peuvent, à la longue, entacher la crédibilité de la Banque et ainsi être responsables des retards dans l’atteinte de l’objectif de stabilité des prix.Starting in 1988, the Bank of Canada has adopted price stability as its sole long-run objective. In this paper, we critically assess the policy actions effectively undertaken in light of this objective. Instead of using the so-called monetary conditions (interest rates and the exchange rate), we base our analysis on the movements of indicators closely related to true policy actions. Our results show a clear dichotomy between the long-run objective and the short-run policy actions. For example, while some policy analysts have identified a restrictive monetary stance in 1989, we detect rather expansionnist or at best neutral policy actions. We argue that the Bank of Canada's delay in meeting its long-run objective can be attributed to the discretionary framework under which its policy is conducted. This may undermine in the long run the Bank's credibility in its fight against inflation

La Grande dépression américaine et la neutralité de la monnaie : un test économétrique

Dans ce texte, nous utilisons des données de la période de l’entre-deux-guerres aux États-Unis pour vérifier l’hypothèse de la neutralité de la monnaie. Dans l’ensemble, nos résultats démontrent que l’hypothèse de la neutralité est rejetée par les données même dans le cas où l’on élimine la variable de faillites bancaires du domaine de l’information disponible dans l’équation d’anticipation de la monnaie. Ces résultats vont donc à l’encontre de ceux obtenus pour l’après-guerre par Barro (1977, 1978) et Barro et Rush (1980) mais vont dans le sens de ceux de Mishkin (1982).In this paper, the neutrality hypothesis is tested for the U.S. Great Depression. Neutrality is generally rejected by the data even when banking failures are excluded from the available information set in generating the anticipated rate of growth of money series. Hence our results are contrary to those of Barro (1977, 1978) and Barro and Rush (1980) for the Post War years. They confirm those of Mishkin (1982)

La Grande dépression américaine et la neutralité de la monnaie : un test économétrique

In this paper, the neutrality hypothesis is tested for the U.S. Great Depression. Neutrality is generally rejected by the data even when banking failures are excluded from the available information set in generating the anticipated rate of growth of money series. Hence our results are contrary to those of Barro (1977, 1978) and Barro and Rush (1980) for the Post War years. They confirm those of Mishkin (1982). Dans ce texte, nous utilisons des données de la période de l’entre-deux-guerres aux États-Unis pour vérifier l’hypothèse de la neutralité de la monnaie. Dans l’ensemble, nos résultats démontrent que l’hypothèse de la neutralité est rejetée par les données même dans le cas où l’on élimine la variable de faillites bancaires du domaine de l’information disponible dans l’équation d’anticipation de la monnaie. Ces résultats vont donc à l’encontre de ceux obtenus pour l’après-guerre par Barro (1977, 1978) et Barro et Rush (1980) mais vont dans le sens de ceux de Mishkin (1982).

La politique monétaire canadienne : entre l’arbre, l’écorce et la forêt

Starting in 1988, the Bank of Canada has adopted price stability as its sole long-run objective. In this paper, we critically assess the policy actions effectively undertaken in light of this objective. Instead of using the so-called monetary conditions (interest rates and the exchange rate), we base our analysis on the movements of indicators closely related to true policy actions. Our results show a clear dichotomy between the long-run objective and the short-run policy actions. For example, while some policy analysts have identified a restrictive monetary stance in 1989, we detect rather expansionnist or at best neutral policy actions. We argue that the Bank of Canada's delay in meeting its long-run objective can be attributed to the discretionary framework under which its policy is conducted. This may undermine in the long run the Bank's credibility in its fight against inflation. Depuis quelques années, la Banque du Canada a adopté un objectif ferme de stabilité des prix. Dans ce texte, nous caractérisons les gestes de politique véritablement posés par la Banque en regard de son objectif. Contrairement aux analyses habituelles qui se concentrent sur l’évolution des conditions sur les marchés financiers et de change, nous insistons sur des indicateurs systématiquement liés aux actions de la politique monétaire. Nos résultats indiquent une forme d’antinomie entre l’objectif de long terme et les actions posées dans une perspective de court terme. Par exemple, alors que plusieurs observateurs ont qualifié la politique de très restrictive en 1989, nous décelons plutôt une prédominance de gestes expansionnistes ou, au mieux, neutres. Ces contradictions entre les gestes posés dans un cadre discrétionnaire, les déclarations de la Banque et son objectif de long terme peuvent, à la longue, entacher la crédibilité de la Banque et ainsi être responsables des retards dans l’atteinte de l’objectif de stabilité des prix.

La règle monétaire de McCallum revue à la lumière de la méthodologie de Litterman

Depuis l’abandon du contrôle des agrégats monétaires par les grandes banques centrales, la règle de McCallum a attiré une attention soutenue dans la littérature macroéconomique. Tant McCallum que ses critiques ont tenté de cerner le caractère stabilisateur de la règle et sa robustesse sous différents régimes et modèles. Dans cet article, nous adoptons une vision pragmatique et tentons de mettre en lumière des facettes empiriques méconnues de la règle de McCallum en utilisant une méthodologie qui allie judicieusement l’utilisation d’un modèle BVAR de l’économie américaine et la théorie du contrôle optimal (Litterman, 1987). Nos résultats montrent i. que la base monétaire est un instrument relativement anémique de la politique monétaire américaine; ii. que son utilisation pour stabiliser le revenu nominal peut mener à des fluctuations difficilement acceptables de l’ensemble des autres variables du système et est donc sujette à la critique de Lucas; iii. qu’il est possible, à l’aide du contrôle optimal, de pousser l’analyse de la règle et de trouver de nouvelles configurations qui ont de meilleures propriétés stabilisatrices des variables objectifs.Since the abandonment of monetary targeting by the Central Banks of major industrial nations, McCallum's rule has attracted renewed attention in the macroeconomic literature. Both McCallum and his critics have investigated the stabilizing properties of the rule and its robustness across regimes and models. In this paper, we adopt the same pragmatic view and seek to discover some unknown empirical properties of McCallum's rule by using a methodology that blends a BVAR model of the U.S. economy to the theory of optimal control (Litterman, 1987). Our results indicate that i. the monetary base is a rather weak instrument of U.S. monetary policy; ii. its use to stabilize nominal income leads to large fluctuations in the other variables of the system subjecting the whole exercise to the Lucas critique; iii. that optimal control analysis can be used to investigate marginally different configurations of McCallum's rule that have better overall stabilizing properties

Walks4work: Rationale and study design to investigate walking at lunchtime in the workplace setting

Background: Following recruitment of a private sector company, an 8week lunchtime walking intervention was implemented to examine the effect of the intervention on modifiable cardiovascular disease risk factors, and further to see if walking environment had any further effect on the cardiovascular disease risk factors. Methods. For phase 1 of the study participants were divided into three groups, two lunchtime walking intervention groups to walk around either an urban or natural environment twice a week during their lunch break over an 8week period. The third group was a waiting-list control who would be invited to join the walking groups after phase 1. In phase 2 all participants were encouraged to walk during their lunch break on self-selecting routes. Health checks were completed at baseline, end of phase 1 and end of phase 2 in order to measure the impact of the intervention on cardiovascular disease risk. The primary outcome variables of heart rate and heart rate variability were measured to assess autonomic function associated with cardiovascular disease. Secondary outcome variables (Body mass index, blood pressure, fitness, autonomic response to a stressor) related to cardiovascular disease were also measured. The efficacy of the intervention in increasing physical activity was objectively monitored throughout the 8-weeks using an accelerometer device. Discussion. The results of this study will help in developing interventions with low researcher input with high participant output that may be implemented in the workplace. If effective, this study will highlight the contribution that natural environments can make in the reduction of modifiable cardiovascular disease risk factors within the workplace. © 2012 Brown et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

A rare sequence variant in intron 1 of THAP1 is associated with primary dystonia

Although coding variants in THAP1 have been causally associated with primary dystonia, the contribution of noncoding variants remains uncertain. Herein, we examine a previously identified Intron 1 variant (c.71+9C>A, rs200209986). Among 1672 subjects with mainly adult-onset primary dystonia, 12 harbored the variant in contrast to 1/1574 controls (P < 0.01). Dystonia classification included cervical dystonia (N = 3), laryngeal dystonia (adductor subtype, N = 3), jaw-opening oromandibular dystonia (N = 1), blepharospasm (N = 2), and unclassified (N = 3). Age of dystonia onset ranged from 25 to 69 years (mean = 54 years). In comparison to controls with no identified THAP1 sequence variants, the c.71+9C>A variant was associated with an elevated ratio of Isoform 1 (NM_018105) to Isoform 2 (NM_199003) in leukocytes. In silico and minigene analyses indicated that c.71+9C>A alters THAP1 splicing. Lymphoblastoid cells harboring the c.71+9C>A variant showed extensive apoptosis with relatively fewer cells in the G2 phase of the cell cycle. Differentially expressed genes from lymphoblastoid cells revealed that the c.71+9C>A variant exerts effects on DNA synthesis, cell growth and proliferation, cell survival, and cytotoxicity. In aggregate, these data indicate that THAP1 c.71+9C>A is a risk factor for adult-onset primary dystonia

High-throughput mutational analysis of TOR1A in primary dystonia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although the c.904_906delGAG mutation in Exon 5 of <it>TOR1A </it>typically manifests as early-onset generalized dystonia, DYT1 dystonia is genetically and clinically heterogeneous. Recently, another Exon 5 mutation (c.863G>A) has been associated with early-onset generalized dystonia and some ΔGAG mutation carriers present with late-onset focal dystonia. The aim of this study was to identify <it>TOR1A </it>Exon 5 mutations in a large cohort of subjects with mainly non-generalized primary dystonia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>High resolution melting (HRM) was used to examine the entire <it>TOR1A </it>Exon 5 coding sequence in 1014 subjects with primary dystonia (422 spasmodic dysphonia, 285 cervical dystonia, 67 blepharospasm, 41 writer's cramp, 16 oromandibular dystonia, 38 other primary focal dystonia, 112 segmental dystonia, 16 multifocal dystonia, and 17 generalized dystonia) and 250 controls (150 neurologically normal and 100 with other movement disorders). Diagnostic sensitivity and specificity were evaluated in an additional 8 subjects with known ΔGAG DYT1 dystonia and 88 subjects with ΔGAG-negative dystonia.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>HRM of <it>TOR1A </it>Exon 5 showed high (100%) diagnostic sensitivity and specificity. HRM was rapid and economical. HRM reliably differentiated the <it>TOR1A </it>ΔGAG and c.863G>A mutations. Melting curves were normal in 250/250 controls and 1012/1014 subjects with primary dystonia. The two subjects with shifted melting curves were found to harbor the classic ΔGAG deletion: 1) a non-Jewish Caucasian female with childhood-onset multifocal dystonia and 2) an Ashkenazi Jewish female with adolescent-onset spasmodic dysphonia.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>First, HRM is an inexpensive, diagnostically sensitive and specific, high-throughput method for mutation discovery. Second, Exon 5 mutations in <it>TOR1A </it>are rarely associated with non-generalized primary dystonia.</p