Estimated HIV Incidence in the United States, 2006–2009

Background The estimated number of new HIV infections in the United States reflects the leading edge of the epidemic. Previously, CDC estimated HIV incidence in the United States in 2006 as 56,300 (95% CI: 48,200–64,500). We updated the 2006 estimate and calculated incidence for 2007–2009 using improved methodology. Methodology We estimated incidence using incidence surveillance data from 16 states and 2 cities and a modification of our previously described stratified extrapolation method based on a sample survey approach with multiple imputation, stratification, and extrapolation to account for missing data and heterogeneity of HIV testing behavior among population groups. Principal Findings Estimated HIV incidence among persons aged 13 years and older was 48,600 (95% CI: 42,400–54,700) in 2006, 56,000 (95% CI: 49,100–62,900) in 2007, 47,800 (95% CI: 41,800–53,800) in 2008 and 48,100 (95% CI: 42,200–54,000) in 2009. From 2006 to 2009 incidence did not change significantly overall or among specific race/ethnicity or risk groups. However, there was a 21% (95% CI:1.9%–39.8%; p = 0.017) increase in incidence for people aged 13–29 years, driven by a 34% (95% CI: 8.4%–60.4%) increase in young men who have sex with men (MSM). There was a 48% increase among young black/African American MSM (12.3%–83.0%; p<0.001). Among people aged 13–29, only MSM experienced significant increases in incidence, and among 13–29 year-old MSM, incidence increased significantly among young, black/African American MSM. In 2009, MSM accounted for 61% of new infections, heterosexual contact 27%, injection drug use (IDU) 9%, and MSM/IDU 3%. Conclusions/Significance Overall, HIV incidence in the United States was relatively stable 2006–2009; however, among young MSM, particularly black/African American MSM, incidence increased. HIV continues to be a major public health burden, disproportionately affecting several populations in the United States, especially MSM and racial and ethnic minorities. Expanded, improved, and targeted prevention is necessary to reduce HIV incidence

Assessment of BED HIV-1 Incidence Assay in Seroconverter Cohorts: Effect of Individuals with Long-Term Infection and Importance of Stable Incidence

BACKGROUND: Performance of the BED assay in estimating HIV-1 incidence has previously been evaluated by using longitudinal specimens from persons with incident HIV infections, but questions remain about its accuracy. We sought to assess its performance in three longitudinal cohorts from Thailand where HIV-1 CRF01_AE and subtype B' dominate the epidemic. DESIGN: BED testing was conducted in two longitudinal cohorts with only incident infections (a military conscript cohort and an injection drug user cohort) and in one longitudinal cohort (an HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trial cohort) that also included long-term infections. METHODS: Incidence estimates were generated conventionally (based on the number of annual serocoversions) and by using BED test results in the three cohorts. Adjusted incidence was calculated where appropriate. RESULTS: For each longitudinal cohort the BED incidence estimates and the conventional incidence estimates were similar when only newly infected persons were tested, whether infected with CRF01_AE or subtype B'. When the analysis included persons with long-term infections (to mimic a true cross-sectional cohort), BED incidence estimates were higher, although not significantly, than the conventional incidence estimates. After adjustment, the BED incidence estimates were closer to the conventional incidence estimates. When the conventional incidence varied over time, as in the early phase of the injection drug user cohort, the difference between the two estimates increased, but not significantly. CONCLUSIONS: Evaluation of the performance of incidence assays requires the inclusion of a substantial number of cohort-derived specimens from individuals with long-term HIV infection and, ideally, the use of cohorts in which incidence remained stable. Appropriate adjustments of the BED incidence estimates generate estimates similar to those generated conventionally

Dual Testing Algorithm of BED-CEIA and AxSYM Avidity Index Assays Performs Best in Identifying Recent HIV Infection in a Sample of Rwandan Sex Workers

To assess the performance of BED-CEIA (BED) and AxSYM Avidity Index (Ax-AI) assays in estimating HIV incidence among female sex workers (FSW) in Kigali, Rwanda. Eight hundred FSW of unknown HIV status were HIV tested; HIV-positive women had BED and Ax-AI testing at baseline and ≥12 months later to estimate assay false-recent rates (FRR). STARHS-based HIV incidence was estimated using the McWalter/Welte formula, and adjusted with locally derived FRR and CD4 results. HIV incidence and local assay window periods were estimated from a prospective cohort of FSW. At baseline, 190 HIV-positive women were BED and Ax-AI tested; 23 were classified as recent infection (RI). Assay FRR with 95% confidence intervals were: 3.6% (1.2-8.1) (BED); 10.6% (6.1-17.0) (Ax-AI); and 2.1% (0.4-6.1) (BED/Ax-AI combined). After FRR-adjustment, incidence estimates by BED, Ax-AI, and BED/Ax-AI were: 5.5/100 person-years (95% CI 2.2-8.7); 7.7 (3.2-12.3); and 4.4 (1.4-7.3). After CD4-adjustment, BED, Ax-AI, and BED/Ax-AI incidence estimates were: 5.6 (2.6-8.6); 9.7 (5.0-14.4); and 4.7 (2.0-7.5). HIV incidence rates in the first and second 6 months of the cohort were 4.6 (1.6-7.7) and 2.2 (0.1-4.4). Adjusted incidence estimates by BED/Ax-AI combined were similar to incidence in the first 6 months of the cohort. Furthermore, false-recent rate on the combined BED/Ax-AI algorithm was low and substantially lower than for either assay alone. Improved assay specificity with time since seroconversion suggests that specificity would be higher in population-based testing where more individuals have long-term infectio

Impaired alveolar macrophage 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 1 reductase activity contributes to increased pulmonary inflammation and mortality in sepsis-related ARDS

commonly precipitated by sepsis. Glucocorticoids are immunomodulatory steroids that can suppress inflammation. Their anti-inflammatory properties within tissues are influenced by their pre-receptor metabolism and amplification from inactive precursors by 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type-1 (HSD-1). We hypothesised that in sepsis-related ARDS, alveolar macrophage (AM) HSD-1 activity and glucocorticoid activation are impaired, and associated with greater inflammatory injury and worse outcomes. Methods: We analysed broncho-alveolar lavage (BAL) and circulating glucocorticoid levels, AM HSD-1 reductase activity and Receptor for Advanced Glycation End-products (RAGE) levels in two cohorts of critically ill sepsis patients, with and without ARDS. AM HSD-1 reductase activity was also measured in lobectomy patients. We assessed inflammatory injury parameters in models of lung injury and sepsis in HSD-1 knockout (KO) and wild type (WT) mice. Results: No difference in serum and BAL cortisol: cortisone ratios are shown between sepsis patients with and without ARDS. Across all sepsis patients, there is no association between BAL cortisol: cortisone ratio and 30-day mortality. However, AM HSD-1 reductase activity is impaired in patients with sepsis-related ARDS, compared to sepsis patients without ARDS and lobectomy patients (0.075 v 0.882 v 0.967 pM/hr/106 AMs, p=0.004). Across all sepsis patients (with and without ARDS), impaired AM HSD-1 reductase activity is associated with defective efferocytosis (r=0.804, p=0.008) and increased 30-day mortality. AM HSD-1 reductase activity negatively correlates with BAL RAGE in sepsis patients with ARDS (r=-0.427, p=0.017). Following intra-tracheal lipopolysaccharide (IT-LPS) injury, HSD-1 KO mice demonstrate increased alveolar neutrophil infiltration, apoptotic neutrophil accumulation, alveolar protein permeability and BAL RAGE concentrations compared to WT mice. Caecal Ligation and Puncture (CLP) injury in HSD-1 KO mice results in greater peritoneal apoptotic neutrophil accumulation compared to WT mice. Conclusions: AM HSD-1 reductase activity does not shape total BAL and serum cortisol: cortisone ratios, however impaired HSD-1 autocrine signalling renders AMs insensitive to the anti-inflammatory effects of local glucocorticoids. This contributes to the decreased efferocytosis, increased BAL RAGE concentrations and mortality seen in sepsis-related ARDS. Upregulation of alveolar HSD-1 activity could restore AM function and improve clinical outcomes in these patients

Estimation of HIV-1 incidence among five focal populations in Dehong, Yunnan: a hard hit area along a major drug trafficking route

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Since 1989 when the first 146 HIV positives in China were identified, Dehong Prefecture had been one of the areas hardest-hit by HIV in China. The local and national governments have put substantial financial resources into tackling the HIV epidemic in Dehong from 2004. The objective of this study was to track dynamic changes in HIV-1 prevalence and incidence among five focal populations in Dehong and to assess the impact of HIV prevention and control efforts.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Consecutive cross-sectional surveys conducted in five focal populations between 2004 and 2008. Specimens seropositive for HIV were tested with the BED IgG capture enzyme immunoassay to identify recent seroconversions (median, 155 days) using normalized optical density of 0.8 and adjustments.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>From 2004 to 2008, estimated annual HIV incidence among injecting drug users (IDUs) decreased significantly [from 15.0% (95% CI = 11.4%-18.5%) in 2004 to 4.3% (95% CI = 2.4%-6.2%) in 2008; trend test P < 0.0001]. The incidence among other focal populations, such as HIV discordant couples (varying from 5.5% to 4.7%), female sex workers (varying from 1.4% to 1.3%), pregnant women (0.1%), and pre-marital couples (0.2 to 0.1%) remained stable. Overall, the proportion of recent HIV-1 infections was higher among females than males (P < 0.0001).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The HIV epidemic in Dehong continued to expand during a five-year period but at a slowing rate among IDUs, and HIV incidence remains high among IDUs and discordant couples. Intensive prevention measures should target sub-groups at highest risk to further slow the epidemic and control the migration of HIV to other areas of China, and multivariate analysis is needed to explore which measures are more effective for different populations.</p

Estimating HIV Incidence among Adults in Kenya and Uganda: A Systematic Comparison of Multiple Methods

CITATION: Kim, A. A. et al. 2011. Estimating HIV incidence among adults in Kenya and Uganda : a systematic comparison of multiple methods. PLos ONE, 6(3): e17535, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0017535.The original publication is available at http://journals.plos.org/plosoneBackground: Several approaches have been used for measuring HIV incidence in large areas, yet each presents specific challenges in incidence estimation. Methodology/Principal Findings: We present a comparison of incidence estimates for Kenya and Uganda using multiple methods: 1) Epidemic Projections Package (EPP) and Spectrum models fitted to HIV prevalence from antenatal clinics (ANC) and national population-based surveys (NPS) in Kenya (2003, 2007) and Uganda (2004/2005); 2) a survey-derived model to infer age-specific incidence between two sequential NPS; 3) an assay-derived measurement in NPS using the BED IgG capture enzyme immunoassay, adjusted for misclassification using a locally derived false-recent rate (FRR) for the assay; (4) community cohorts in Uganda; (5) prevalence trends in young ANC attendees. EPP/Spectrum-derived and survey-derived modeled estimates were similar: 0.67 [uncertainty range: 0.60, 0.74] and 0.6 [confidence interval: (CI) 0.4, 0.9], respectively, for Uganda (2005) and 0.72 [uncertainty range: 0.70, 0.74] and 0.7 [CI 0.3, 1.1], respectively, for Kenya (2007). Using a local FRR, assay-derived incidence estimates were 0.3 [CI 0.0, 0.9] for Uganda (2004/2005) and 0.6 [CI 0, 1.3] for Kenya (2007). Incidence trends were similar for all methods for both Uganda and Kenya. Conclusions/Significance: Triangulation of methods is recommended to determine best-supported estimates of incidence to guide programs. Assay-derived incidence estimates are sensitive to the level of the assay's FRR, and uncertainty around high FRRs can significantly impact the validity of the estimate. Systematic evaluations of new and existing incidence assays are needed to the study the level, distribution, and determinants of the FRR to guide whether incidence assays can produce reliable estimates of national HIV incidence.http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0017535Publisher's versio