Susceptibility to Vibrio cholerae Infection in a Cohort of Household Contacts of Patients with Cholera in Bangladesh

Vibrio cholerae is the bacterium that causes cholera, a severe form of diarrhea that leads to rapid and potentially fatal dehydration when the infection is not treated promptly. Cholera remains an important cause of diarrhea globally, and V. cholerae continues to cause major epidemics in the most vulnerable populations. Although there have been recent discoveries about how the bacterium adapts to the human intestine and causes diarrhea, there is little understanding of why some people are protected from infection with V. cholerae. This article describes several factors that are associated with the risk of developing V. cholerae infection among people living in the same household with a patient with severe cholera who are at high risk of contracting the infection. One of the findings is that IgA antibodies, a type of antibody associated with immunity at mucosal surfaces such as the intestine, that target several components of the bacteria are associated with immunity to V. cholerae infection. This article also describes genetic and nutritional factors that additionally influence susceptibility to V. cholerae infection

Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics

In many infectious diseases, an unknown fraction of infections produce symptoms mild enough to go unrecorded, a fact that can seriously compromise the interpretation of epidemiological records. This is true for cholera, a pandemic bacterial disease, where estimates of the ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic infections have ranged from 3 to 100 (refs 1-5). In the absence of direct evidence, understanding of fundamental aspects of cholera transmission, immunology and control has been based on assumptions about this ratio and about the immunological consequences of inapparent infections. Here we show that a model incorporating high asymptomatic ratio and rapidly waning immunity, with infection both from human and environmental sources, explains 50 yr of mortality data from 26 districts of Bengal, the pathogen's endemic home. We find that the asymptomatic ratio in cholera is far higher than had been previously supposed and that the immunity derived from mild infections wanes much more rapidly than earlier analyses have indicated. We find, too, that the environmental reservoir(5,6) (free-living pathogen) is directly responsible for relatively few infections but that it may be critical to the disease's endemicity. Our results demonstrate that inapparent infections can hold the key to interpreting the patterns of disease outbreaks. New statistical methods(7), which allow rigorous maximum likelihood inference based on dynamical models incorporating multiple sources and outcomes of infection, seasonality, process noise, hidden variables and measurement error, make it possible to test more precise hypotheses and obtain unexpected results. Our experience suggests that the confrontation of time-series data with mechanistic models is likely to revise our understanding of the ecology of many infectious diseases.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62519/1/nature07084.pd

Measuring Coverage in MNCH:A Validation Study Linking Population Survey Derived Coverage to Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health Care Records in Rural China

Accurate data on coverage of key maternal, newborn, and child health (MNCH) interventions are crucial for monitoring progress toward the Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5. Coverage estimates are primarily obtained from routine population surveys through self-reporting, the validity of which is not well understood. We aimed to examine the validity of the coverage of selected MNCH interventions in Gongcheng County, China.We conducted a validation study by comparing women's self-reported coverage of MNCH interventions relating to antenatal and postnatal care, mode of delivery, and child vaccinations in a community survey with their paper- and electronic-based health care records, treating the health care records as the reference standard. Of 936 women recruited, 914 (97.6%) completed the survey. Results show that self-reported coverage of these interventions had moderate to high sensitivity (0.57 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.50-0.63] to 0.99 [95% CI: 0.98-1.00]) and low to high specificity (0 to 0.83 [95% CI: 0.80-0.86]). Despite varying overall validity, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) ranging between 0.49 [95% CI: 0.39-0.57] and 0.90 [95% CI: 0.88-0.92], bias in the coverage estimates at the population level was small to moderate, with the test to actual positive (TAP) ratio ranging between 0.8 and 1.5 for 24 of the 28 indicators examined. Our ability to accurately estimate validity was affected by several caveats associated with the reference standard. Caution should be exercised when generalizing the results to other settings.The overall validity of self-reported coverage was moderate across selected MNCH indicators. However, at the population level, self-reported coverage appears to have small to moderate degree of bias. Accuracy of the coverage was particularly high for indicators with high recorded coverage or low recorded coverage but high specificity. The study provides insights into the accuracy of self-reports based on a population survey in low- and middle-income countries. Similar studies applying an improved reference standard are warranted in the future

Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics

Outbreaks of many infectious diseases, including cholera, malaria and dengue, vary over characteristic periods longer than 1 year(1,2). Evidence that climate variability drives these interannual cycles has been highly controversial, chiefly because it is difficult to isolate the contribution of environmental forcing while taking into account nonlinear epidemiological dynamics generated by mechanisms such as host immunity(2-4). Here we show that a critical interplay of environmental forcing, specifically climate variability, and temporary immunity explains the interannual disease cycles present in a four-decade cholera time series from Matlab, Bangladesh. We reconstruct the transmission rate, the key epidemiological parameter affected by extrinsic forcing, over time for the predominant strain ( El Tor) with a nonlinear population model that permits a contributing effect of intrinsic immunity. Transmission shows clear interannual variability with a strong correspondence to climate patterns at long periods ( over 7 years, for monsoon rains and Brahmaputra river discharge) and at shorter periods ( under 7 years, for flood extent in Bangladesh, sea surface temperatures in the Bay of Bengal and the El Nino Southern Oscillation). The importance of the interplay between extrinsic and intrinsic factors in determining disease dynamics is illustrated during refractory periods, when population susceptibility levels are low as the result of immunity and the size of cholera outbreaks only weakly reflects climate forcing.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62876/1/nature03820.pd

Evaluation and use of surveillance system data toward the identification of high-risk areas for potential cholera vaccination: a case study from Niger.

In 2008, Africa accounted for 94% of the cholera cases reported worldwide. Although the World Health Organization currently recommends the oral cholera vaccine in endemic areas for high-risk populations, its use in Sub-Saharan Africa has been limited. Here, we provide the principal results of an evaluation of the cholera surveillance system in the region of Maradi in Niger and an analysis of its data towards identifying high-risk areas for cholera

Prevalence and factors associated with rotavirus infection among children admitted with acute diarrhea in Uganda

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Rotavirus remains the commonest cause of severe dehydrating diarrhea among children worldwide. Children in developing countries die more because of several factors including poorer access to hydration therapy and greater prevalence of malnutrition. Hitherto, the magnitude of rotavirus disease in Uganda has remained unknown. This study was therefore done to determine the prevalence and factors associated with rotavirus infection among children aged 3-59 months admitted with acute diarrhea to paediatric emergency ward of Mulago Hospital, Uganda</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Three hundred and ninety children, aged between 3-59 months with acute diarrhoea were recruited. The clinical history, socio-demographic characteristics, physical examination findings and laboratory investigations were recorded. Stool samples were tested for rotavirus antigens using the DAKO IDEIA rotavirus EIA detection kit.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The prevalence of rotavirus infection was 45.4%. On multivariate analysis rotavirus was significantly associated with a higher education (above secondary) level of the mother [OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.1-2.7]; dehydration [OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.1-3.0] and breastfeeding [OR 2.6; 95% CI 1.4-4.0]. Although age was significantly associated with rotavirus on bivariate analysis; this association disappeared on multivariate analysis. No significant association was found between rotavirus infection and nutritional status, HIV status and attendance of day care or school.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Rotavirus infection is highly prevalent among children with acute diarrhoea admitted to Mulago Hospital in Uganda.</p

A predictive score to identify hospitalized patients' risk of discharge to a post-acute care facility

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Early identification of patients who need post-acute care (PAC) may improve discharge planning. The purposes of the study were to develop and validate a score predicting discharge to a post-acute care (PAC) facility and to determine its best assessment time.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a prospective study including 349 (derivation cohort) and 161 (validation cohort) consecutive patients in a general internal medicine service of a teaching hospital. We developed logistic regression models predicting discharge to a PAC facility, based on patient variables measured on admission (day 1) and on day 3. The value of each model was assessed by its area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). A simple numerical score was derived from the best model, and was validated in a separate cohort.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Prediction of discharge to a PAC facility was as accurate on day 1 (AUC: 0.81) as on day 3 (AUC: 0.82). The day-3 model was more parsimonious, with 5 variables: patient's partner inability to provide home help (4 pts); inability to self-manage drug regimen (4 pts); number of active medical problems on admission (1 pt per problem); dependency in bathing (4 pts) and in transfers from bed to chair (4 pts) on day 3. A score ≥ 8 points predicted discharge to a PAC facility with a sensitivity of 87% and a specificity of 63%, and was significantly associated with inappropriate hospital days due to discharge delays. Internal and external validations confirmed these results.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A simple score computed on the 3rd hospital day predicted discharge to a PAC facility with good accuracy. A score > 8 points should prompt early discharge planning.</p

Radiating Shear-Free Gravitational Collapse with Charge

We present a new shear free model for the gravitational collapse of a spherically symmetric charged body. We propose a dissipative contraction with radiation emitted outwards. The Einstein field equations, using the junction conditions and an ansatz, are integrated numerically. A check of the energy conditions is also performed. We obtain that the charge delays the black hole formation and it can even halt the collapse.Comment: 22 pages, 9 figures. It has been corrected several typos and included several references. Accepted for publication in GR

Chronic diarrhea associated with persistent norovirus excretion in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia: report of two cases

BACKGROUND: Chronic diarrhea in patients treated with immunosuppressive agents or suffering from immunosuppressive disease can represent a diagnostic and therapeutic challenge to the clinician. Norovirus infection, a major cause of acute epidemic diarrhea, has been described as a cause of chronic diarrhea in patients who are immunosuppressed, including transplant recipients and the very young. CASE PRESENTATIONS: We describe two patients, a 64 year-old man and a 59 year-old woman, both suffering from chronic lymphocytic leukemia and hypogammaglobulinemia, who developed chronic diarrhea resistant to therapy. In both cases, after months of symptoms, persistent norovirus infection--documented by repeatedly-positive high-sensitivity stool enzyme immunoassay--was found to be the cause. Both patients died with active diarrheal symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: We describe the first cases of advanced chronic lymphocytic leukemia to suffer from chronic symptomatic norovirus infection. Clinicians caring for such patients, particularly those with concomitant hypogammaglobulinema, who have chronic unexplained diarrhea, should consider norovirus infection in the differential diagnosis