Assessing Human Error Against a Benchmark of Perfection

An increasing number of domains are providing us with detailed trace data on human decisions in settings where we can evaluate the quality of these decisions via an algorithm. Motivated by this development, an emerging line of work has begun to consider whether we can characterize and predict the kinds of decisions where people are likely to make errors. To investigate what a general framework for human error prediction might look like, we focus on a model system with a rich history in the behavioral sciences: the decisions made by chess players as they select moves in a game. We carry out our analysis at a large scale, employing datasets with several million recorded games, and using chess tablebases to acquire a form of ground truth for a subset of chess positions that have been completely solved by computers but remain challenging even for the best players in the world. We organize our analysis around three categories of features that we argue are present in most settings where the analysis of human error is applicable: the skill of the decision-maker, the time available to make the decision, and the inherent difficulty of the decision. We identify rich structure in all three of these categories of features, and find strong evidence that in our domain, features describing the inherent difficulty of an instance are significantly more powerful than features based on skill or time.Comment: KDD 2016; 10 page

Learning to rank from medical imaging data

Medical images can be used to predict a clinical score coding for the severity of a disease, a pain level or the complexity of a cognitive task. In all these cases, the predicted variable has a natural order. While a standard classifier discards this information, we would like to take it into account in order to improve prediction performance. A standard linear regression does model such information, however the linearity assumption is likely not be satisfied when predicting from pixel intensities in an image. In this paper we address these modeling challenges with a supervised learning procedure where the model aims to order or rank images. We use a linear model for its robustness in high dimension and its possible interpretation. We show on simulations and two fMRI datasets that this approach is able to predict the correct ordering on pairs of images, yielding higher prediction accuracy than standard regression and multiclass classification techniques

Web-Scale Bayesian click-through rate prediction for sponsored search advertising in Microsoft's Bing search engine

We describe a new Bayesian click-through rate (CTR) prediction algorithm used for Sponsored Search in Microsoft's Bing search engine. The algorithm is based on a probit regression model that maps discrete or real-valued input features to probabilities. It maintains Gaussian beliefs over weights of the model and performs Gaussian online updates derived from approximate message passing. Scalability of the algorithm is ensured through a principled weight pruning procedure and an approximate parallel implementation. We discuss the challenges arising from evaluating and tuning the predictor as part of the complex system of sponsored search where the predictions made by the algorithm decide about future training sample composition. Finally, we show experimental results from the production system and compare to a calibrated Naïve Bayes algorithm

A network-based dynamical ranking system for competitive sports

From the viewpoint of networks, a ranking system for players or teams in sports is equivalent to a centrality measure for sports networks, whereby a directed link represents the result of a single game. Previously proposed network-based ranking systems are derived from static networks, i.e., aggregation of the results of games over time. However, the score of a player (or team) fluctuates over time. Defeating a renowned player in the peak performance is intuitively more rewarding than defeating the same player in other periods. To account for this factor, we propose a dynamic variant of such a network-based ranking system and apply it to professional men's tennis data. We derive a set of linear online update equations for the score of each player. The proposed ranking system predicts the outcome of the future games with a higher accuracy than the static counterparts.Comment: 6 figure

A Uniform Lower Error Bound for Half-Space Learning

We give a lower bound for the error of any unitarily invariant algorithm learning half-spaces against the uniform or related distributions on the unit sphere. The bound is uniform in the choice of the target half-space and has an exponentially decaying deviation probability in the sample. The technique of proof is related to a proof of the Johnson Lindenstrauss Lemma. We argue that, unlike previous lower bounds, our result is well suited to evaluate the benefits of multi-task or transfer learning, or other cases where an expense in the acquisition of domain knowledge has to be justified

APRIL: Active Preference-learning based Reinforcement Learning

This paper focuses on reinforcement learning (RL) with limited prior knowledge. In the domain of swarm robotics for instance, the expert can hardly design a reward function or demonstrate the target behavior, forbidding the use of both standard RL and inverse reinforcement learning. Although with a limited expertise, the human expert is still often able to emit preferences and rank the agent demonstrations. Earlier work has presented an iterative preference-based RL framework: expert preferences are exploited to learn an approximate policy return, thus enabling the agent to achieve direct policy search. Iteratively, the agent selects a new candidate policy and demonstrates it; the expert ranks the new demonstration comparatively to the previous best one; the expert's ranking feedback enables the agent to refine the approximate policy return, and the process is iterated. In this paper, preference-based reinforcement learning is combined with active ranking in order to decrease the number of ranking queries to the expert needed to yield a satisfactory policy. Experiments on the mountain car and the cancer treatment testbeds witness that a couple of dozen rankings enable to learn a competent policy

Detecting Remote Evolutionary Relationships among Proteins by Large-Scale Semantic Embedding

Virtually every molecular biologist has searched a protein or DNA sequence database to find sequences that are evolutionarily related to a given query. Pairwise sequence comparison methods—i.e., measures of similarity between query and target sequences—provide the engine for sequence database search and have been the subject of 30 years of computational research. For the difficult problem of detecting remote evolutionary relationships between protein sequences, the most successful pairwise comparison methods involve building local models (e.g., profile hidden Markov models) of protein sequences. However, recent work in massive data domains like web search and natural language processing demonstrate the advantage of exploiting the global structure of the data space. Motivated by this work, we present a large-scale algorithm called ProtEmbed, which learns an embedding of protein sequences into a low-dimensional “semantic space.” Evolutionarily related proteins are embedded in close proximity, and additional pieces of evidence, such as 3D structural similarity or class labels, can be incorporated into the learning process. We find that ProtEmbed achieves superior accuracy to widely used pairwise sequence methods like PSI-BLAST and HHSearch for remote homology detection; it also outperforms our previous RankProp algorithm, which incorporates global structure in the form of a protein similarity network. Finally, the ProtEmbed embedding space can be visualized, both at the global level and local to a given query, yielding intuition about the structure of protein sequence space