What do we know about adult mortality and data quality in Peru? Mortality coverage levels and trends from recent decades

Accurate knowledge of adult mortality levels and trends in the developing world is hampered by its widespread lack of complete vital registration systems. Although knowledge of infant and child mortality was once affect by the same problem, survey-based techniques have been more successful in estimating child and infant than adult mortality. The main objective of this paper is to estimate mortality rates for the population aged 5 and above, in Peru by sex. The study evaluates the degree of coverage, and corrects the level of mortality, when necessary, using different methodologies. The literature does not indicate the best method to investigate mortality data problems. Thus, the implementation of alternative methods will improve the understanding of the mortality levels and trends in Peru in recent decades.Peru, adult mortality, demographic methods

Human capital differentials across municipalities and states in Brazil

In this paper, we investigate the distribution of more educated and skilled people in Brazilian municipalities and states. Previous evidence shows a high concentration of college educated and high skilled workers in some areas of the country. We investigate whether the increase in the number of high skill workers is faster in municipalities with high initial levels of human capital than in municipalities with lower initial levels. We develop a theoretical model to explain the convergence/divergence of regional skill levels In Brazil. We estimate OLS models based on the theoretical model to explain empirically wage differentials in Brazil. Last, we compute standard segregation and isolation measures to show the trends in the distribution of skilled workers across states and cities in Brazil. We find that educated and qualified workers are concentrated in some areas of the country and recent decades show a higher concentration of them across states and cities.human capital, segregation, regional differences, Brazil

National transfer accounts and generational flows

The economic life cycle is characterised by three distinct phases: two phases of economic dependence and one phase of economic independence. In most societies, children consume resources generated by adults, transferred to them by family or by the public sector. The elderly, in turn, possess an accumulation of assets accrued during their active economic phase, and of resources produced and transferred by adults or other credit operations. Over each period of time, every society determines - by social norms, laws and individual decisions - the combination of mechanisms for resource allocation over life cycles. Intergenerational transfers represent a significant portion of the distributed production and time allocation over the life cycle and become increasingly important given the rapid demographic changes that have been happening around the world over the last decades. [...

Temporal and spatial trends of adult mortality in small areas of Brazil, 1980–2010

To determine the variations and spatial patterns of adult mortality across regions, over time, and by sex for 137 small areas in Brazil, we first apply TOPALS to estimate and smooth mortality rates and then use death distribution methods to evaluate the quality of the mortality data. Lastly, we employ spatial autocorrelation statistics and cluster analysis to identify the adult mortality trends and variations in these areas between 1980 and 2010. We find not only that regions in Brazil’s South and Southeast already had complete death registration systems prior to the study period, but that the completeness of death count coverage improved over time across the entire nation—most especially in lesser developed regions—probably because of public investment in health data collection. By also comparing adult mortality by sex and by region, we document a mortality sex differential in favor of women that remains high over the entire study period, most probably as a result of increased morbidity from external causes, especially among males. This increase also explains the concentration of high male mortality levels in some areas76CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICO - CNPQCOORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DE PESSOAL DE NÍVEL SUPERIOR - CAPES470866/2014-4; 454223/2014-5não te

An indirect method to monitor the fraction of people ever infected with COVID-19: An application to the United States

The number of COVID-19 infections is key for accurately monitoring the pandemics. However, due to differential testing policies, asymptomatic individuals and limited large-scale testing availability, it is challenging to detect all cases. Seroprevalence studies aim to address this gap by retrospectively assessing the number of infections, but they can be expensive and time-intensive, limiting their use to specific population subgroups. In this paper, we propose a complementary approach that combines estimated (1) infection fatality rates (IFR) using a Bayesian melding SEIR model with (2) reported case-fatality rates (CFR) in order to indirectly estimate the fraction of people ever infected (from the total population) and detected (from the ever infected). We apply the technique to the U.S. due to their remarkable regional diversity and because they count with almost a quarter of all global confirmed cases and deaths. We obtain that the IFR varies from 1.25% (0.39–2.16%, 90% CI) in Florida, the most aged population, to 0.69% in Utah (0.21–1.30%, 90% CI), the youngest population. By September 8, 2020, we estimate that at least five states have already a fraction of people ever infected between 10% and 20% (New Jersey, New York, Massachussets, Connecticut, and District of Columbia). The state with the highest estimated fraction of people ever infected is New Jersey with 17.3% (10.0, 55.8, 90% CI). Moreover, our results indicate that with a probability of 90 percent the fraction of detected people among the ever infected since the beginning of the epidemic has been less than 50% in 15 out of the 20 states analyzed in this paper. Our approach can be a valuable tool that complements seroprevalence studies and indicates how efficient have testing policies been since the beginning of the outbreak

Alternative information sources on deaths in Brazil in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic

An alternative source of information on vital statistics that has gained attention during the pandemic is the Civil Registry Transparency Portal. This paper discusses the role of alternative sources of mortality information in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. Data is made available monthly by municipal and state health departments, with only information for 2018 available. Given this context, what alternative sources of mortality information and death data classified by infection (SARS-CoV-2) can fill the time gap left by official sources of mortality information? This detailed report covers the development of Civil Registration and Vital Statistics systems in Brazil and responds to challenges of data collection.Global Affairs Canad

Autres sources d’information sur les décès au Brésil dans le contexte de la pandémie de COVID-19

Affaires mondiales Canad

Fontes alternativas de informação de óbitos no Brasil : contexto de pandemia Covid-19 Everton

Global Affairs Canada (GAC

Differentials in death count records by databases in Brazil in 2010

OBJECTIVE To compare the death counts from three sources of information on mortality available in Brazil in 2010, the Mortality Information System (SIM - Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade ), Civil Registration Statistic System (RC - Sistema de Estatísticas de Resgistro Civil ), and the 2010 Demographic Census at various geographical levels, and to confirm the association between municipal socioeconomic characteristics and the source which showed the highest death count. METHODS This is a descriptive and comparative study of raw data on deaths in the SIM, RC and 2010 Census databases, the latter held in Brazilian states and municipalities between August 2009 and July 2010. The percentage of municipalities was confirmed by the database showing the highest death count. The association between the source of the highest death count and socioeconomic indicators - the Índice de Privação Brasileiro (IBP – Brazilian Deprivation Index) and Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano Municipal (IHDM – Municipal Human Development Index) - was performed by bivariate choropleth and Moran Local Index of Spatial Association (LISA) cluster maps. RESULTS Confirmed that the SIM is the database with the highest number of deaths counted for all Brazilian macroregions, except the North, in which the highest coverage was from the 2010 Census. Based on the indicators proposed, in general, the Census showed a higher coverage of deaths than the SIM and the RC in the most deprived (highest IBP values) and less developed municipalities (lowest IDHM values) in the country. CONCLUSION The results highlight regional inequalities in how the databases chosen for this study cover death records, and the importance of maintaining the issue of mortality on the basic census questionnaire

Portuguese recommendations for the use of biological therapies in patients with psoriatic arthritis - 2015 update

OBJECTIVE: To update recommendationsforthe treatment of psoriatic arthritis with biological therapies, endorsed by the Portuguese Society of Rheumatology (SPR). METHODS: These treatment recommendations were formulated by Portuguese rheumatologists based on literature evidence and consensus opinion. At a national meeting the 16 recommendations included in this document were discussed and updated. The level of agreement among Portuguese Rheumatologists was assessed using an online survey. A draft of the full text of the recommendations was then circulated and suggestions were incorporated. A final version was again circulated before publication. RESULTS: A consensus was achieved regarding the initiation, assessment of response and switching biological therapies in patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA). Specific recommendations were developed for several disease domains: peripheral arthritis, axial disease, enthesitis and dactylitis. CONCLUSION: These recommendations may be used for guidance in deciding which patients with PsA should be treated with biological therapies. They cover a rapidly evolving area oftherapeutic intervention.Asmore evidence becomes available and more biological therapies are licensed, these recommendations will have to be updated