98 research outputs found

    Semiquantitative Decision Tools for FMD Emergency Vaccination Informed by Field Observations and Simulated Outbreak Data

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    We present two simple, semiquantitative model-based decision tools, based on the principle of first 14 days incidence (FFI). The aim is to estimate the likelihood and the consequences, respectively, of the ultimate size of an ongoing FMD epidemic. The tools allow risk assessors to communicate timely, objectively, and efficiently to risk managers and less technically inclined stakeholders about the potential of introducing FMD suppressive emergency vaccination. To explore the FFI principle with complementary field data, we analyzed the FMD outbreaks in Argentina in 2001, with the 17 affected provinces as the units of observation. Two different vaccination strategies were applied during this extended epidemic. In a series of 5,000 Danish simulated FMD epidemics, the numbers of outbreak herds at day 14 and at the end of the epidemics were estimated under different control strategies. To simplify and optimize the presentation of the resulting data for urgent decisions to be made by the risk managers, we estimated the sensitivity, specificity, as well as the negative and positive predictive values, using a chosen day-14 outbreak number as predictor of the magnitude of the number of remaining post-day-14 outbreaks under a continued basic control strategy. Furthermore, during an ongoing outbreak, the actual cumulative number of detected infected herds at day 14 will be known exactly. Among the number of epidemics lasting >14 days out of the 5,000 simulations under the basic control scenario, we selected those with an assumed accumulated number of detected outbreaks at day 14. The distribution of the estimated number of detected outbreaks at the end of the simulated epidemics minus the number at day 14 was estimated for the epidemics lasting more than 14 days. For comparison, the same was done for identical epidemics (i.e., seeded with the same primary outbreak herds) under a suppressive vaccination scenario. The results indicate that, during the course of an FMD epidemic, simulated likelihood predictions of the remaining epidemic size and of potential benefits of alternative control strategies can be presented to risk managers and other stakeholders in objective and easily communicable ways

    The herd-level sensitivity of abattoir surveillance for bovine tuberculosis: Simulating the effects of current and potentially modified meat inspection procedures in irish cattle

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    The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has published a series of opinions to assess the impact of changing from the current meat inspection procedures (CMI) to visual-only inspection (VOI) procedures. Concern has been raised that changes from CMI to VOI would adversely affect the effectiveness of surveillance for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in EU member states, both for countries with and without official status of bTB freedom (OTF and non-OTF countries, respectively). This study was conducted to estimate the impact of a change from CMI to VOI in abattoirs on herd-level detection sensitivity in Ireland, a non-OTF country. Using national Irish data, we identified all herds that sold at least one animal to slaughter during 2010–12 whilst unrestricted for bTB. For each of these herds, we calculated the number of cattle sent to slaughter whilst unrestricted, the number of factory lesion tests (FLT) that had been performed, and estimated the apparent within-herd prevalence (APwh). A FLT is a whole-herd test conducted in a herd following the confirmation of bTB in an animal at slaughter. We considered five different inspection scenarios, each based on meat inspection and bacteriology in series, including current meat inspection (CMI) and four visual-only inspection scenarios (VOI2, VOI3, VOI4, VOI5) with reducing inspection sensitivities. Separately for each inspection scenario, a simulation model was used to estimate the herd-level detection sensitivity and the number of bTB-herds (that is, herds that sent at least one animal detected with M. bovis to slaughter when unrestricted during 2010–12) that would and would not be detected. The simulated mean herd-level detection sensitivity estimates were 0.24 for CMI, and 0.16, 0.12, 0.10 and 0.08 for VOI2-5, assuming a 2-, 3-, 4- and 5-fold decrease, respectively, in the animal-level detection sensitivity of VOI relative to that of CMI. The estimated number of non-detected bTB-herds is substantial with CMI, and increases in the series of VOI scenarios with decreasing herd-level detection sensitivity. If VOI were introduced without alternative surveillance means to compensate for the decrease in animal-level inspection sensitivity, such changes might jeopardise bTB surveillance, control and eradication programmes in cattle herds of non-OTF countries, including Ireland

    Scientific Opinion on peste des petits ruminants

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    Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a severe viral disease of small ruminants caused by a Morbillivirus closely related to rinderpest virus. It is widespread in Africa and Asia and is currently also found in Turkey and Northern Africa. PPR is transmitted via direct contact, and the disease would mainly be transferred to infection-free areas by transport of infected animals. In the EU, it could only happen through illegal transport of animals. The risk of that depends on the prevalence in the country of origin and the number of animals illegally moved. The extent of the spread would depend mainly on the time during which it is undetected, the farm density, the frequency and distance of travel of animals. PPR has a high within-herd transmission rate, therefore contacts between flocks, e.g. through common grazing areas, should be avoided when PPR is present. If PPR enters EU areas with dense sheep population but low goat density, it may spread rapidly undetected, since goats are considered more susceptible than sheep. Effective measures in limiting the spread of PPR in the EU include prompt culling of infected herds, rapid detection, movement restriction, and disinfection. Live attenuated vaccines against PPR are available, safe and effective, and have been successfully used to control PPR epidemics, but no method exists for differentiating between infected and vaccinated animals; therefore, the development of one is recommended. Awareness-raising campaigns for farmers and veterinary staff to promote recognition of the disease should be considered. The cooperation of the EU with neighbouring countries should be encouraged to prevent the spread 20 of PPR and other transboundary diseases
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