Temperature loggers (HOBO) placed in two locations off the coast of the West coast of Leyte, the Philippines , 2012-2019.

Dataset: Temperature LoggersTemperature loggers (HOBO) placed in two locations (HOBO1: 10.74373, 124.78668, HOBO2: 10.74364, 124.78665) off the coast of the West coast of Leyte, the Philippines , 2012-2019. For a complete list of measurements, refer to the full dataset description in the supplemental file 'Dataset_description.pdf'. The most current version of this dataset is available at: https://www.bco-dmo.org/dataset/862415NSF Division of Ocean Sciences (NSF OCE) OCE-143021

Open and Closed Seascapes: Where Does Habitat Patchiness Create Populations with High Fractions of Self-Recruitment?

Which populations are replenished primarily by immigrants (open) and which by local production (closed) remains an important question for management with implications for response to exploitation, protection, and disturbance. However, we lack methods for predicting population openness. Here, we develop a model for openness and show that considering habitat isolation explains the existence of surprisingly closed populations in high-dispersal species, including many marine organisms. Relatively closed populations are expected when patch spacing is more than twice the standard deviation of a species\u27 dispersal kernel. In addition, natural scales of habitat patchiness on coral reefs are sufficient to create both largely open and largely closed populations. Contrary to some previous interpretations, largely closed marine populations do not require mean dispersal distances that are unusually short, even for species with relatively long pelagic larval durations. We predict that habitat patchiness has strong control over population openness for many marine and terrestrial species with a highly dispersive life stage and relatively sedentary adults. This information can be used to make initial predictions about where populations will be more or less resilient to local exploitation and disturbance

Range contraction enables harvesting to extinction

Economic incentives to harvest a species usually diminish as its abundance declines, because harvest costs increase. This prevents harvesting to extinction. A known exception can occur if consumer demand causes a declining species' harvest price to rise faster than costs. This threat may affect rare and valuable species, such as large land mammals, sturgeons, and bluefin tunas. We analyze a similar but underappreciated threat, which arises when the geographic area (range) occupied by a species contracts as its abundance declines. Range contractions maintain the local densities of declining populations, which facilitates harvesting to extinction by preventing abundance declines from causing harvest costs to rise. Factors causing such range contractions include schooling, herding, or flocking behaviors--which, ironically, can be predator-avoidance adaptations; patchy environments; habitat loss; and climate change. We use a simple model to identify combinations of range contractions and price increases capable of causing extinction from profitable overharvesting, and we compare these to an empirical review. We find that some aquatic species that school or forage in patchy environments experience sufficiently severe range contractions as they decline to allow profitable harvesting to extinction even with little or no price increase; and some high-value declining aquatic species experience severe price increases. For terrestrial species, the data needed to evaluate our theory are scarce, but available evidence suggests that extinction-enabling range contractions may be common among declining mammals and birds. Thus, factors causing range contraction as abundance declines may pose unexpectedly large extinction risks to harvested species.Comment: 25 pages total, 8 pages main text, 17 pages supporting informatio

Estimating the economic impacts of climate change on 16 major US fisheries

Observational evidence shows marine species are shifting their geographic distribution in response to warming ocean temperatures. These shifts have implications for the US fisheries and seafood consumers. The analysis presented here employs a two-stage inverse demand model to estimate the consumer welfare impacts of projected increases or decreases in commercial landings for 16 US fisheries from 2021 to 2100, based on the predicted changes in thermally available habitat. The fisheries analyzed together account for 56% of the current US commercial fishing revenues. The analysis compares welfare impacts under two climate scenarios: a high emissions case that assumes limited efforts to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas and a low emissions case that assumes more stringent mitigation. The present value of consumer surplus impacts when discounted at 3% is a net loss of $2.1 billion (2018 US$) in the low emissions case and $4.2 billion in the high emissions scenario. Projected annual losses reach$278–901 million by 2100

Climate change\u27s impact on key ecosystem services and the human well-being they support in the US

Climate change alters the functions of ecological systems. As a result, the provision of ecosystem services and the well-being of people that rely on these services are being modified. Climate models portend continued warming and more frequent extreme weather events across the US. Such weather-related disturbances will place a premium on the ecosystem services that people rely on. We discuss some of the observed and anticipated impacts of climate change on ecosystem service provision and livelihoods in the US. We also highlight promising adaptive measures. The challenge will be choosing which adaptive strategies to implement, given limited resources and time. We suggest using dynamic balance sheets or accounts of natural capital and natural assets to prioritize and evaluate national and regional adaptation strategies that involve ecosystem services. © The Ecological Society of America

Preparing ocean governance for species on the move

Policy must anticipate conflict over geographic shifts</jats:p

The Practice and Promise of Temporal Genomics for Measuring Evolutionary Responses to Global Change

Understanding the evolutionary consequences of anthropogenic change is imperative for estimating long-term species resilience. While contemporary genomic data can provide us with important insights into recent demographic histories, investigating past change using present genomic data alone has limitations. In comparison, temporal genomics studies, defined herein as those that incorporate time series genomic data, utilize museum collections and repeated field sampling to directly examine evolutionary change. As temporal genomics is applied to more systems, species and questions, best practices can be helpful guides to make the most efficient use of limited resources. Here, we conduct a systematic literature review to synthesize the effects of temporal genomics methodology on our ability to detect evolutionary changes. We focus on studies investigating recent change within the past 200 years, highlighting evolutionary processes that have occurred during the past two centuries of accelerated anthropogenic pressure. We first identify the most frequently studied taxa, systems, questions and drivers, before highlighting overlooked areas where further temporal genomic studies may be particularly enlightening. Then, we provide guidelines for future study and sample designs while identifying key considerations that may influence statistical and analytical power. Our aim is to provide recommendations to a broad array of researchers interested in using temporal genomics in their work

Building confidence in projections of the responses of living marine resources to climate change

The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlights that climate change and ocean acidification are challenging the sustainable management of living marine resources (LMRs). Formal and systematic treatment of uncertainty in existing LMR projections, however, is lacking. We synthesize knowledge of how to address different sources of uncertainty by drawing from climate model intercomparison efforts. We suggest an ensemble of available models and projections, informed by observations, as a starting point to quantify uncertainties. Such an ensemble must be paired with analysis of the dominant uncertainties over different spatial scales, time horizons, and metrics. We use two examples: (i) global and regional projections of Sea Surface Temperature and (ii) projection of changes in potential catch of sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) in the 21st century, to illustrate this ensemble model approach to explore different types of uncertainties. Further effort should prioritize understanding dominant, undersampled dimensions of uncertainty, as well as the strategic collection of observations to quantify, and ultimately reduce, uncertainties. Our proposed framework will improve our understanding of future changes in LMR and the resulting risk of impacts to ecosystems and the societies under changing ocean conditions

Integrated modeling framework to quantify the coastal protection services supplied by vegetation

Vegetation can protect communities by reducing nearshore wave height and altering sediment transport processes. However, quantitative approaches for evaluating the coastal protection services, or benefits, supplied by vegetation to people in a wide range of coastal environments are lacking. To begin to fill this knowledge gap, we propose an integrated modeling approach for quantifying how vegetation modifies nearshore processes—including the attenuation of wave height, mean and total water level—and reduces shoreline erosion during storms. We apply the model to idealized seagrass-sand and mangrove-mud cases, and illustrate its potential by quantifying how those habitats reduce water levels and sediment loss beyond what would be observed in the absence of vegetation. The integrated modeling approach provides an efficient way to quantify the coastal protection services supplied by vegetation and highlights specific research needs for improved representations of the ways in which vegetation modifies wave-induced processes.Keywords: coastal vegetation, wave setup and runup, coastal erosion, mud bed scou

Data-driven approach for highlighting priority areas for protection in marine areas beyond national jurisdiction

One of the aims of the United Nations (UN) negotiations on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biodiversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ) is to develop a legal process for the establishment of area-based management tools, including marine protected areas, in ABNJ. Here we use a conservation planning algorithm to integrate 55 global data layers on ABNJ species diversity, habitat heterogeneity, benthic features, productivity, and fishing as a means for highlighting priority regions in ABNJ to be considered for spatial protection. We also include information on forecasted species distributions under climate change. We found that parameterizing the planning algorithm to protect at least 30% of these key ABNJ conservation features, while avoiding areas of high fishing effort, yielded a solution that highlights 52,545,634 km2 (23.7%) of ABNJ as high priority regions for protection. Instructing the planning model to avoid ABNJ areas with high fishing effort resulted in relatively minor shifts in the planning solution, when compared to a separate model that did not consider fishing effort. Integrating information on climate change had a similarly minor influence on the planning solution, suggesting that climate-informed ABNJ protected areas may be able to protect biodiversity now and in the future. This globally standardized, data-driven process for identifying priority ABNJ regions for protection serves as a valuable complement to other expert-driven processes underway to highlight ecologically or biologically significant ABNJ regions. Both the outputs and methods exhibited in this analysis can additively inform UN decision-making concerning establishment of ABNJ protected areas