Forecasting Interest Rates and Inflation: Blue Chip Clairvoyants or Econometrics?

Abstract This is the first study to examine the forecasting performance of the individual participants in the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts -a unique collection of cross-sectional time series survey data on interest rates and inflation. An empirical examination reveals that fed funds futures prices best predict the fed funds rate at very short horizons, and that survey forecasters are competitive at short horizon forecasts of short to medium maturity interest rates. The Diebold-Li model with VAR(3) dynamics, enhanced by shrinking the parameter estimates toward the long run mean using the Qrinkage estimator, emerges as the best performing model for long horizon forecasts of yields up to 2 years. For forecasting 5 and 10-year maturity yields, autoregressive Qrinkage models dominate. Individual survey forecasters, including the mean forecaster, do particularly well at forecasting inflation

Selective Regulation of Cardiac Organic Cation Transporter Novel Type 2 (OCTN2) in Dilated Cardiomyopathy

Organic cation transporters (OCT1-3 and OCTN1/2) facilitate cardiac uptake of endogenous compounds and numerous drugs. Genetic variants of OCTN2, for example, reduce uptake of carnitine, leading to heart failure. Whether expression and function of OCTs and OCTNs are altered by disease has not been explored in detail. We therefore studied cardiac expression, heart failure–dependent regulation, and affinity to cardiovascular drugs of these transporters. Cardiac transporter mRNA levels were OCTN2>OCT3>OCTN1>OCT1 (OCT2 was not detected). Proteins were localized in vascular structures (OCT3/OCTN2/OCTN1) and cardiomyocytes (OCT1/OCTN1). Functional studies revealed a specific drug-interaction profile with pronounced inhibition of OCT1 function, for example, carvedilol [half maximal inhibitory concentration (IC50), 1.4 μmol/L], diltiazem (IC50, 1.7 μmol/L), or propafenone (IC50, 1.0 μmol/L). With use of the cardiomyopathy model of coxsackievirus-infected mice, Octn2mRNA expression was significantly reduced (56% of controls, 8 days after infection). Accordingly, in endomyocardial biopsy specimens OCTN2 expression was significantly reduced in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy, whereas the expression of OCT1-3 and OCTN1 was not affected. For OCTN2 we observed a significant correlation between expression and left ventricular ejection fraction (r = 0.53, P < 0.0001) and the presence of cardiac CD3+ T cells (r = −0.45, P < 0.05), respectively. OCT1, OCT3, OCTN1, and OCTN2 are expressed in the human heart and interact with cardiovascular drugs. OCTN2 expression is selectively reduced in dilated cardiomyopathy patients and predicts the impairment of cardiac function