La structure à terme des taux d'intérêt

Rapport de rechercheNuméro de référence interne originel : a1.1 g 82

Affordability of cigarettes products in the WHO Report on the Global Tobacco Epidemic, 2017

Background The idea of whether cigarettes have become cheaper or more expensive over time can be answered in two ways, one with reference to real prices alone (i.e whether prices change in relation to the prices of other goods and services in a country) and the other with reference to smokers' ability to purchase cigarettes (i.e. whether cigarettes became more or less expensive relative to income). Methods The affordability of cigarettes for each of the years 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2016 was measured by the per capita GDP required to purchase 2000 cigarettes of the most sold brand reported in that year, as also the cheapest and premium brands. To assess whether affordability changed on average since 2008, the average annual percentage change in affordability was calculated as the least squares growth rate for all countries with three or more years of data, including data for 2016. In addition, analysis of the direction and magnitude of year-by-year changes in affordability was conducted. Results Cigarette price increases outpaced per capita GDP growth in 80 countries and did not significantly differ from per capita GDP growth in 73 countries, but fell short in 23 countries. The WHO Euro region, with the greatest prices and tax shares, has also seen the most success in reducing affordability of cigarettes. Countries at the top category of achievement in taxation in 2016 were also the most successful in ensuring that cigarettes, on average, became less affordable in the 8-year period since 2008. Few countries are able to make cigarettes less affordable in every successive year. Conclusions Countries with the highest tobacco excise taxes have been the most successful at reducing the affordability of cigarettes. Measures of affordability are easy to compute and track policy change, but are most informative when averaged over multiple years given high annual variation

Cigarette demand and supply in Africa

Background Since the tobacco epidemic is moving from developed to developing countries, it is important to understand trends in cigarette demand and supply. We focus on the African market since it offers the tobacco industry one of the best expansion potentials. Methods A large variety of data from commercial (Canadean, Euromonitor International, tobacco industry reports), governmental (United Nations Comtrade, national statistics), and academic sources (Cigarette Citadels map and journal articles) were used to study cigarette demand in Africa from 1990 to 2012. We focus on cigarette production and international cigarette trade to detect structural changes in cigarette supply over the past few decades. We contrast data from these different sources. Results Cigarette demand and supply data in Africa is limited and is sometimes inconsistent across different sources. Given this caveat, we found that the overall demand for cigarettes (measured by sales) in the 22 countries covered by Canadean, which covers 80% of Africa's population, increased by 44% (from 165.6 billion cigarettes to 238.5 billion cigarettes) from 1990 to 2012. This higher demand has been met by an increase in cigarette production in these 22 countries by 106% during the same period. As result, Africa has transitioned from being a net importer to a net exporter of cigarettes. At the same time cigarette production has become more concentrated as the tobacco industry has strategically identified certain countries as production hubs. Conclusions Monitoring the production, consumption and trade of cigarettes by improving the quality of surveillance is important to understand the demand and supply of cigarettes not only in Africa, but also globally

Trends in cigarette demand and supply in Africa.

BACKGROUND:Since the tobacco epidemic is moving from developed to developing countries, it is important to understand trends in cigarette demand and supply. We focus on the African market since it offers the tobacco industry one of the best expansion potentials. DATA:A large variety of data from commercial (Canadean, Euromonitor International, tobacco industry reports), governmental (United Nations Comtrade, national statistics), and academic sources (Cigarette Citadels Map and journal articles) were utilized. METHODS:We compile data from multiple sources to study cigarette demand in Africa from 1990 to 2012. We then focus on cigarette production and international cigarette trade to detect structural changes in cigarette supply over the past few decades. We contrast data from these different sources. RESULTS:Cigarette demand and supply data in Africa is limited and is sometimes inconsistent across different sources. Given this caveat, we found that the overall demand for cigarettes (measured by sales) in the 22 countries covered by Canadean, which represents 80% of Africa's population, increased by 44% (from 165.6 billion cigarettes to 238.5 billion cigarettes) from 1990 to 2012. This higher demand has been met by cigarette production increasing in these 22 countries by 106% during the same period. As a result, Africa has moved from being a net importer to a net exporter of cigarettes. At the same time, cigarette production has become more concentrated as the tobacco industry has strategically identified certain countries as production hubs. CONCLUSIONS:Monitoring the production, consumption and trade of cigarettes by improving the quality of surveillance is necessary to understand the demand and supply of cigarettes not only in Africa, but globally

Higher Tobacco Prices and Taxes in South East Asia: An Effective Tool to Reduce Tobacco Use, Save Lives and Generate Revenue

This report summarises the health consequences and costs associated with tobacco use. It review price trends in government tobacco tax revenues and how tobacco products are currently taxed in these countries. The third section examines the demand for tobacco products in south-east Asian countries. A literature review on the demand for tobacco products in developing countries is sollowed by new analysis using time series and household-level data. The revenue-generating potential of tobacco taxes in south-east Asian countries is discusses. Finally, the report discusses contraband trade in tobacco products in south-east Asia, with emphasis on the industry's alleged role in smuggling

Monitoring and Measuring Health Taxes

We draw from the well-established global monitoring of tobacco taxes by the World Health Organization and provide a proposed similar approach to develop new – or adapt existing – monitoring tools for taxes on alcoholic beverages and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). Since 2008, the periodical and global monitoring of tobacco tax levels, prices, affordability and additional tax structure and tax administration information has enabled standardised comparisons across countries and over time, informed policymaking and institutional opportunities or barriers to apply tobacco taxes, led to defining best practices in the design of such taxes, and provided powerful tools for advocacy, especially with ministries of finance to promote fiscal and health policy coherence. Monitoring taxes on alcoholic beverages and SSBs in a similar way would require adjusting the methodology used to monitor taxes on tobacco products to the unique characteristics of these beverages – namely the fact that these products are more diverse than tobacco products in terms of product types consumed, and in volume sizes and content. In addition to collecting data on the tax structure, tax rates, tax bases and nominal retail prices on several different beverage types, monitoring taxes on alcoholic beverages and SSBs would require information on beverage volume sizes and sugar content and alcohol concentration. A balance would need to be reached between characterising the diversity of global or regional consumption patterns, ensuring the standardisation and precision of the indicators, and limiting the data requirements from national authorities. While institutional considerations are to be considered in expanding the global routine monitoring systems for taxes on alcoholic beverages and SSBs, there are lessons to be learned and potential synergies from the experience monitoring tobacco taxes. The successful monitoring of taxes applied on these three unhealthy products would play a great role in promoting global action and driving progress to reduce the burden of non-communicable diseases