San Francisco Bay: Preparing for the next level

This report provides new insights on the impacts climate change poses on San Francisco Bay, the opportunities this challenge brings and some potential guidelines on how to move forward, as the Bay Area continues to position itself in leading the way nationally and internationally on climate change adaptation. This report is also a landmark in the cooperation between the Netherlands and California on climate change adaptation. A team of professionals from both sides of the ocean has worked on this projec

Assessing and communicating climate change uncertainties : case of the Rhine basin

The main aim of this thesis is to analyse the climate change uncertainties that are important to take into account for long term water management and to explore the communication of these uncertainties. The study design combines natural and social scientific theories and methods and consists of three different elements: 1) an assessment of the dominant uncertainty for changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the Rhine basin; 2) an assessment of the impact of the main uncertainties on changes in flood risk and associated damage in the Rhine basin and 3) an exploration of the use of simulation gaming to communicate about climate change uncertainties to water managers

Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations

Probability estimates of the future change of extreme precipitation events are usually based on a limited number of available global climate model (GCM) or regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Since floods are related to heavy precipitation events, this restricts the assessment of flood risks. In this study a relatively simple method has been developed to get a better description of the range of changes in extreme precipitation events. Five bias-corrected RCM simulations of the 1961-2100 climate for a single greenhouse gas emission scenario (A1B SRES) were available for the Rhine basin. To increase the size of this five-member RCM ensemble, 13 additional GCM simulations were analysed. The climate responses of the GCMs are used to modify an observed (1961-1995) precipitation time series with an advanced delta change approach. Changes in the temporal means and variability are taken into account. It is found that the range of future change of extreme precipitation across the five-member RCM ensemble is similar to results from the 13-member GCM ensemble. For the RCM ensemble, the time series modification procedure also results in a similar climate response compared to the signal deduced from the direct model simulations. The changes from the individual RCM simulations, however, systematically differ from those of the driving GCMs, especially for long return periods

Nieuwe probabilistische methode om overstromingsrisico’s te schatten

Bij onderzoek naar toekomstige overstromingsrisico's worden vaak de resultaten op basis van klimaatsimulaties gepresenteerd en met elkaar vergeleken zonder dat iets gezegd wordt over de kans op veranderingen in het overstromingsrisico. Om zulke kansen te berekenen, is een probabilistische aanpak nodig. In 2010 en 2011 voerden de Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, het KNMI, Wageningen Universiteit en Deltares het onderzoek 'Aandacht voor Veiligheid 2' uit, dat een demonstratie omvatte van een methode om probabilistische schattingen voor toekomstige overstromingsrisico's te maken. Die methode toont dat het mogelijk is de kans te schatten dat het toekomstige overstromingsrisico groter is dan het huidige overstromingsrisico

Proliferative Activity In Vitro and DNA Repair Indicate that Adult Mouse and Human Sertoli Cells Are Not Terminally Differentiated, Quiescent Cells

Sertoli cells isolated from the adult mouse and human testis resume proliferation in culture. After 20 days of culture in Dulbecco modified Eagle medium/Ham F12 (DMEM/F12) medium containing 5% fetal calf serum, about 36% of the mouse Sertoli cells, identified by their immunohistochemical staining for the Sertoli cell marker vimentin, incorporated bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU). The renewed proliferation was associated with a 70% decrease in expression of the cell cycle inhibitor CDKN1B (P27(kip1)) and a 2-fold increase in the levels of the proliferation inducer ID2. In vivo, the balance between cell cycle inhibitors and inducers probably is such that the cells remain quiescent, whereas in culture the balance is disturbed such that Sertoli cells start to proliferate again. The renewed proliferative activity of Sertoli cells in culture was further confirmed by double staining for BrdU and the Sertoli cell marker clusterin (CLU), showing about 25% of the CLU-positive Sertoli cells to be also positive for BrdU after 13 days of culture. Radiobiologically, Sertoli cells are also different from other quiescent somatic cells in the testis because they express several DNA repair proteins (XRCC1, PARP1, and others). Indeed, a comet assay on irradiated Sertoli cells revealed a 70% reduction in tail length and tail moment at 20 h after irradiation. Hence, Sertoli cells repair DNA damage, whereas other quiescent somatic testicular cells do not. This repair may be accomplished by nonhomologous end joining via XRCC1 and PARP1. In conclusion, cell kinetic and radiobiological data indicate that Sertoli cells more resemble arrested proliferating cells than the classic postmitotic and terminally differentiated somatic cells that they have always been assumed to b

Attention to safety 2

Tot op heden heeft onderzoek naar toekomstig overstromingsrisico vooral gebruik gemaakt van de scenarioaanpak. Het belangrijkste doel van deze studie is om een demonstratie te geven van een methode voor het produceren van probabilistische schattingen van overstromingsrisico’s als gevolg van klimaatverandering. Het onderzoek richt zich op twee casestudy trajecten langs de Rijn: Bonn-Duisburg en Mainz-Koblenz

Climate Change Risk Management in Transnational River Basins: The Rhine

Climate change is likely to have an impact on the discharge of the European river Rhine. To base adaptation strategies, to deal with these changing river discharges, on the best scientific and technical knowledge, it is important to understand potential climate impacts, as well as the capacity of social and natural systems to adapt. Both are characterized by large uncertainties, at different scales, that range from individual to local to regional to international. This review paper addresses three challenges. Dealing with climate change uncertainties for the development of adaptation strategies is the first challenge. We find that communication of uncertainties in support of river basin adaptation planning generally only covers a small part of the spectrum of prevailing uncertainties, e.g. by using only one model or scenario and one approach to deal with the uncertainties. The second challenge identified in this paper is to overcome the current mismatch of supply of scientific knowledge by scientists and the demand by policy makers. Early experiences with ‘assess-risk-of-policy’ approaches analysis of options, starting from the resilience of development plans, suggests that this approach better responds to policy makers’ needs. The third challenge is to adequately capture the transnational character of the Rhine river basin in research and policy. Development and implementation of adaptation options derived from integrated analysis at the full river basin level, rather than within the boundaries of the riparian countries, can offer new opportunities, but will also meet many practical challenges