A Comparative Study of the Magnitude, Frequency and Distribution of Intense Rainfall in the United Kingdom

During the 1960s, a study was made of the magnitude, frequency and distribution of intense rainfall over the UK, employing data from more than 120 daily-read rain gauges covering the period 1911 to 1960. Using the same methodology, that study was recently updated utilizing data for the period 1961 to 2006 for the same gauges, or from those nearby. This paper describes the techniques applied to ensure consistency of data and statistical modelling. It presents a comparison of patterns of extreme rainfalls for the two periods and discusses the changes that have taken place. Most noticeably, increases up to 20% have occurred in the north west of the country and in parts of East Anglia. There have also been changes in other areas, including decreases of the same magnitude over central England. The implications of these changes are considered

Exploiting Nonlinear Recurrence and Fractal Scaling Properties for Voice Disorder Detection

Background: Voice disorders affect patients profoundly, and acoustic tools can potentially measure voice function objectively. Disordered sustained vowels exhibit wide-ranging phenomena, from nearly periodic to highly complex, aperiodic vibrations, and increased "breathiness". Modelling and surrogate data studies have shown significant nonlinear and non-Gaussian random properties in these sounds. Nonetheless, existing tools are limited to analysing voices displaying near periodicity, and do not account for this inherent biophysical nonlinearity and non-Gaussian randomness, often using linear signal processing methods insensitive to these properties. They do not directly measure the two main biophysical symptoms of disorder: complex nonlinear aperiodicity, and turbulent, aeroacoustic, non-Gaussian randomness. Often these tools cannot be applied to more severe disordered voices, limiting their clinical usefulness.

Methods: This paper introduces two new tools to speech analysis: recurrence and fractal scaling, which overcome the range limitations of existing tools by addressing directly these two symptoms of disorder, together reproducing a "hoarseness" diagram. A simple bootstrapped classifier then uses these two features to distinguish normal from disordered voices.

Results: On a large database of subjects with a wide variety of voice disorders, these new techniques can distinguish normal from disordered cases, using quadratic discriminant analysis, to overall correct classification performance of 91.8% plus or minus 2.0%. The true positive classification performance is 95.4% plus or minus 3.2%, and the true negative performance is 91.5% plus or minus 2.3% (95% confidence). This is shown to outperform all combinations of the most popular classical tools.

Conclusions: Given the very large number of arbitrary parameters and computational complexity of existing techniques, these new techniques are far simpler and yet achieve clinically useful classification performance using only a basic classification technique. They do so by exploiting the inherent nonlinearity and turbulent randomness in disordered voice signals. They are widely applicable to the whole range of disordered voice phenomena by design. These new measures could therefore be used for a variety of practical clinical purposes.
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Risk of myocardial infarction and stroke after acute infection or vaccination.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence that chronic inflammation may promote atherosclerotic disease. We tested the hypothesis that acute infection and vaccination increase the short-term risk of vascular events. METHODS: We undertook within-person comparisons, using the case-series method, to study the risks of myocardial infarction and stroke after common vaccinations and naturally occurring infections. The study was based on the United Kingdom General Practice Research Database, which contains computerized medical records of more than 5 million patients. RESULTS: A total of 20,486 persons with a first myocardial infarction and 19,063 persons with a first stroke who received influenza vaccine were included in the analysis. There was no increase in the risk of myocardial infarction or stroke in the period after influenza, tetanus, or pneumococcal vaccination. However, the risks of both events were substantially higher after a diagnosis of systemic respiratory tract infection and were highest during the first three days (incidence ratio for myocardial infarction, 4.95; 95 percent confidence interval, 4.43 to 5.53; incidence ratio for stroke, 3.19; 95 percent confidence interval, 2.81 to 3.62). The risks then gradually fell during the following weeks. The risks were raised significantly but to a lesser degree after a diagnosis of urinary tract infection. The findings for recurrent myocardial infarctions and stroke were similar to those for first events. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide support for the concept that acute infections are associated with a transient increase in the risk of vascular events. By contrast, influenza, tetanus, and pneumococcal vaccinations do not produce a detectable increase in the risk of vascular events

Correlates of depression in bipolar disorder

We analyse time series from 100 patients with bipolar disorder for correlates of depression symptoms. As the sampling interval is non-uniform, we quantify the extent of missing and irregular data using new measures of compliance and continuity. We find that uniformity of response is negatively correlated with the standard deviation of sleep ratings (ρ = -0.26, p = 0.01). To investigate the correlation structure of the time series themselves, we apply the Edelson-Krolik method for correlation estimation. We examine the correlation between depression symptoms for a subset of patients and find that self-reported measures of sleep and appetite/weight show a lower average correlation than other symptoms. Using surrogate time series as a reference dataset, we find no evidence that depression is correlated between patients, though we note a possible loss of information from sparse sampling

Bistable Gradient Networks II: Storage Capacity and Behaviour Near Saturation

We examine numerically the storage capacity and the behaviour near saturation of an attractor neural network consisting of bistable elements with an adjustable coupling strength, the Bistable Gradient Network (BGN). For strong coupling, we find evidence of a first-order "memory blackout" phase transition as in the Hopfield network. For weak coupling, on the other hand, there is no evidence of such a transition and memorized patterns can be stable even at high levels of loading. The enhanced storage capacity comes, however, at the cost of imperfect retrieval of the patterns from corrupted versions.Comment: 15 pages, 12 eps figures. Submitted to Phys. Rev. E. Sequel to cond-mat/020356

In-vivo anterior segment OCT imaging provides unique insight into cerulean blue-dot opacities and cataracts in Down syndrome

Down syndrome (DS) is frequently associated with cataract, but there remains scant information about DS cataract morphology. Supra-nuclear cataracts in DS have been proposed as indicative of beta-amyloid (Aβ) aggregation and thus potential biomarkers for Alzheimer’s (AD). This study employed anterior segment OCT (AS-OCT) and slit-lamp (SL) photography to image the crystalline lens in DS, compared with adult controls. Lens images were obtained post-dilation. Using MATLAB, AS-OCT images were analysed and lens opacities calculated as pixel intensity and area ratios. SL images were classified using LOCS III. Subjects were n = 28 DS (mean ± SD 24.1 ± 14.3years), and n = 36 controls (54.0 ± 3.4years). For the DS group, AS-OCT imaging revealed the frequent presence of small dot opacities (27 eyes, 50%) in the cortex and nucleus of the lens, covering an area ranging from 0.2–14%. There was no relation with age or visual acuity and these dot opacities (p > 0.5) and they were not present in any control lenses. However, their location and morphology does not coincide with previous reports linking these opacities with Aβ accumulation and AD. Four participants (14%) in the DS group had clinically significant age-related cataracts, but there was no evidence of early onset of age-related cataracts in DS

Differential effects of naltrindole on morphine-induced tolerance and physical dependence in rats

ABSTRACT This study investigated the effect of delta opioid receptor blockade by naltrindole on the development of physical dependence and tolerance to the antinociceptive and respiratory depressive effects of morphine in rats. Chronic morphine was delivered either by s.c. injection of increasing amounts of morphine over 5 days or by s.c. implantation of morphine pellets. Animals were cotreated with saline or naltrindole. Antinociception and respiratory depression were assessed after administration of a challenge dose of morphine, and withdrawal signs were determined after naloxone challenge. Naltrindole significantly attenuated the development of antinociceptive tolerance after all three chronic treatment regimens. In addition, rats pretreated with naltrindole displayed significantly fewer withdrawal symptoms and less weight loss after a naloxone challenge. In contrast, naltrindole did not prevent the development of tolerance to morphine-induced respiratory depression. These results imply that tolerance to antinociception and physical dependence involves adaptations at interacting mu and delta receptor populations, whereas tolerance to respiratory depression reflects actions of independent mu and delta receptor populations. These findings suggest that delta antagonists may have potential clinical application for decreasing the rapid development of tolerance to opiate-induced analgesia, while allowing for the development of protective tolerance to respiratory depression. There is increasing evidence of interaction between mu and delta opiate receptors (see Traynor and Elliot, 1993 for review). These receptors can coexist on the same neuron, as proposed for receptor populations in the neostriatum Stimulation of delta opiate receptors modulates mu-based antinociception. Two populations of delta receptors (delta 1 and delta 2 ) have been postulated on the basis of pharmacologic evidence There is also evidence that delta receptor activation contributes to the development of morphine-induced tolerance and physical dependence. Coadministration of the delta-2 antagonist 5Ј-NTII with either 100 mg/kg of morphine or morphine pellets over 3 days prevented the normal development of tolerance and dependence in mice, whereas the delta-1-specific antagonist DALCE did not prevent the development of physical dependence in mic

Topology and Computational Performance of Attractor Neural Networks

To explore the relation between network structure and function, we studied the computational performance of Hopfield-type attractor neural nets with regular lattice, random, small-world and scale-free topologies. The random net is the most efficient for storage and retrieval of patterns by the entire network. However, in the scale-free case retrieval errors are not distributed uniformly: the portion of a pattern encoded by the subset of highly connected nodes is more robust and efficiently recognized than the rest of the pattern. The scale-free network thus achieves a very strong partial recognition. Implications for brain function and social dynamics are suggestive.Comment: 2 figures included. Submitted to Phys. Rev. Letter

Factors associated with Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence among dogs in the United States

Background Dogs in the United States are hosts to a diverse range of ticks and tick-borne pathogens, including A. phagocytophilum, an important emerging canine and human pathogen. Previously, a Companion Animal Parasite Council (CAPC)-sponsored workshop proposed factors purported to be associated with the infection risk for tick-transmitted pathogens in dogs in the United States, including climate conditions, socioeconomic characteristics, local topography, and vector distribution. Methods Approximately four million test results from routine veterinary diagnostic tests from 2011–2013, which were collected on a county level across the contiguous United States, are statistically analyzed with the proposed factors via logistic regression and generalized estimating equations. Spatial prevalence maps of baseline Anaplasma spp. prevalence are constructed from Kriging and head-banging smoothing methods. Results All of the examined factors, with the exception of surface water coverage, were significantly associated with Anaplasma spp. prevalence. Overall, Anaplasma spp. prevalence increases with increasing precipitation and forestation coverage and decreases with increasing temperature, population density, relative humidity, and elevation. Interestingly, socioeconomic status and deer/vehicle collisions were positively and negatively correlated with canine Anaplasma seroprevalence, respectively. A spatial map of the canine Anaplasma hazard is an auxiliary product of the analysis. Anaplasma spp. prevalence is highest in New England and the Upper Midwest. Conclusions The results from the two posited statistical models (one that contains an endemic areas assumption and one that does not) are in general agreement, with the major difference being that the endemic areas model estimates a larger prevalence in Western Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado. As A. phagocytophilum is zoonotic, the results of this analysis could also help predict areas of high risk for human exposure to this pathogen

Identification of BPIFA1/SPLUNC1 as an epithelium-derived smooth muscle relaxing factor

Asthma is a chronic airway disease characterized by inflammation, mucus hypersecretion and abnormal airway smooth muscle (ASM) contraction. Bacterial permeability family member A1, BPIFA1, is a secreted innate defence protein. Here we show that BPIFA1 levels are reduced in sputum samples from asthmatic patients and that BPIFA1 is secreted basolaterally from healthy, but not asthmatic human bronchial epithelial cultures (HBECs), where it suppresses ASM contractility by binding to and inhibiting the Ca2+ influx channel Orai1. We have localized this effect to a specific, C-terminal α-helical region of BPIFA1. Furthermore, tracheas from Bpifa1−/− mice are hypercontractile, and this phenotype is reversed by the addition of recombinant BPIFA1. Our data suggest that BPIFA1 deficiency in asthmatic airways promotes Orai1 hyperactivity, increased ASM contraction and airway hyperresponsiveness. Strategies that target Orai1 or the BPIFA1 deficiency in asthma may lead to novel therapies to treat this disease