Estimating the number needed to treat from continuous outcomes in randomised controlled trials: methodological challenges and worked example using data from the UK Back Pain Exercise and Manipulation (BEAM) trial

Background Reporting numbers needed to treat (NNT) improves interpretability of trial results. It is unusual that continuous outcomes are converted to numbers of individual responders to treatment (i.e., those who reach a particular threshold of change); and deteriorations prevented are only rarely considered. We consider how numbers needed to treat can be derived from continuous outcomes; illustrated with a worked example showing the methods and challenges. Methods We used data from the UK BEAM trial (n = 1, 334) of physical treatments for back pain; originally reported as showing, at best, small to moderate benefits. Participants were randomised to receive 'best care' in general practice, the comparator treatment, or one of three manual and/or exercise treatments: 'best care' plus manipulation, exercise, or manipulation followed by exercise. We used established consensus thresholds for improvement in Roland-Morris disability questionnaire scores at three and twelve months to derive NNTs for improvements and for benefits (improvements gained+deteriorations prevented). Results At three months, NNT estimates ranged from 5.1 (95% CI 3.4 to 10.7) to 9.0 (5.0 to 45.5) for exercise, 5.0 (3.4 to 9.8) to 5.4 (3.8 to 9.9) for manipulation, and 3.3 (2.5 to 4.9) to 4.8 (3.5 to 7.8) for manipulation followed by exercise. Corresponding between-group mean differences in the Roland-Morris disability questionnaire were 1.6 (0.8 to 2.3), 1.4 (0.6 to 2.1), and 1.9 (1.2 to 2.6) points. Conclusion In contrast to small mean differences originally reported, NNTs were small and could be attractive to clinicians, patients, and purchasers. NNTs can aid the interpretation of results of trials using continuous outcomes. Where possible, these should be reported alongside mean differences. Challenges remain in calculating NNTs for some continuous outcomes

Myths about autism: an exploratory study using focus groups

Individuals with autism are often stigmatised and isolated by their typically developing peers according to parental, teacher and self-reports. Whilst quantitative studies often report negative attitudes towards individuals with autism, it is still unclear how understandings of autism influence attitudes. In this exploratory study, misconceptions or myths about autism, i.e. the cognitive component of attitudes, were examined using focus groups. Purposive sampling was used to recruit undergraduate and postgraduate students, and adults with and without experience of autism, to one of five focus groups (n = 37). Content analysis was used to identify emergent themes. The data identified seven commonly held beliefs about individuals with autism. The first four were related to social interaction, such as that people with autism do not like to be touched. The fifth reflected the view that all individuals with autism have a special talent and the final two concerned beliefs that people with autism are dangerous. The findings from this study demonstrate that people with varying experience or knowledge of autism often hold inaccurate beliefs about autism. These findings improve our understandings of lay-beliefs about autism, and will aid the development and implementation of interventions designed to improve lay-knowledge of autism

Canine pseudopregnancy: an evaluation of prevalence and current treatment protocols in the UK

Background: There is a dearth of literature on pseudopregnancy in the bitch, with only a few treatment-based studies published since the 1990s. Pseudopregnancy may be under-recognised in bitches and may account for a proportion of behavioural cases seen in veterinary practices including aggression. Little is known about commonly used treatments for overtly pseudopregnant bitches and it is possible that current regimes may not be prescribed for a sufficient duration to control any clinical signs including, physical and behavioural changes. To investigate current trends in diagnosis and treatment of canine pseudopregnancy, a postal survey was sent to 2000 randomly selected veterinary surgeons in UK veterinary practices. The questionnaire queried how often vets recognise cases of pseudopregnancy in spayed and entire bitches, which physical or behavioural signs are commonly recognised for diagnosis, and which management or treatment protocols are used. Results: The response rate was 19.8% (397/2000). Ninety-six percent of veterinary surgeons reported seeing pseudopregnant bitches showing behavioural changes without any physical changes within the last 12 months. Of those behavioural changes, collecting and mothering objects was the most frequently reported behavioural sign (96%). Ninety-seven percent of vets had seen aggression in pseudopregnant bitches. Nevertheless, only 52% of vets routinely asked owners about behavioural changes during consultations. Forty-nine percent of respondents reported seeing pseudopregnancy in spayed bitches. The most commonly reported physical sign was enlarged mammary glands and/or milk production (89%). Treatment options varied (surgical, medical or none) and depended on duration and severity of physical and behavioural signs, owners’ preference, cost, concurrent disease, drug availability and previous history. Conclusions: This is the largest epidemiological study of canine pseudopregnancy in the UK. The prevalence and severity of clinical signs in dogs with pseudopregnancy are variable and possibly under-estimated. Dogs with overt pseudopregnancy experience diverse physical and behavioural changes and information on standard treatment protocols are lacking. Although, progress on our understanding of diagnosis and treatment of pseudopregnancy in spayed and entire bitches has been made, further studies are warranted

Parabens as Urinary Biomarkers of Exposure in Humans

BACKGROUND: Parabens appear frequently as antimicrobial preservatives in cosmetic products, in pharmaceuticals, and in food and beverage processing. In vivo and in vitro studies have revealed weak estrogenic activity of some parabens. Widespread use has raised concerns about the potential human health risks associated with paraben exposure. OBJECTIVES: Assessing human exposure to parabens usually involves measuring in urine the conjugated or free species of parabens or their metabolites. In animals, parabens are mostly hydrolyzed to p-hydroxybenzoic acid and excreted in the urine as conjugates. Still, monitoring urinary concentrations of p-hydroxybenzoic acid is not necessarily the best way to assess exposure to parabens. p-Hydroxybenzoic acid is a nonspecific biomarker, and the varying estrogenic bioactivities of parabens require specific biomarkers. Therefore, we evaluated the use of free and conjugated parent parabens as new biomarkers for human exposure to these compounds. RESULTS: We measured the urinary concentrations of methyl, ethyl, n-propyl, butyl (n- and iso-), and benzyl parabens in a demographically diverse group of 100 anonymous adults. We detected methyl and n-propyl parabens at the highest median concentrations (43.9 ng/mL and 9.05 ng/mL, respectively) in nearly all (> 96%) of the samples. We also detected other parabens in more than half of the samples (ethyl, 58%; butyl, 69%). Most important, however, we found that parabens in urine appear predominantly in their conjugated forms. CONCLUSIONS: The results, demonstrating the presence of urinary conjugates of parabens in humans, suggest that such conjugated parabens could be used as exposure biomarkers. Additionally, the fact that conjugates appear to be the main urinary products of parabens may be important for risk assessment

Saber on ESP32

Saber, a CCA-secure lattice-based post-quantum key encapsulation scheme, is one of the second round candidate algorithms in the post-quantum cryptography standardization process of the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in 2019. In this work, we provide an efficient implementation of Saber on ESP32, an embedded microcontroller designed for IoT environment with WiFi and Bluetooth support. RSA coprocessor was used to speed up the polynomial multiplications for Kyber variant in a CHES 2019 paper. We propose an improved implementation utilizing the big integer coprocessor for the polynomial multiplications in Saber, which contains significant lower software overhead and takes a better advantage of the big integer coprocessor on ESP32. By using the fast implementation of polynomial multiplications, our single-core version implementation of Saber takes 1639K, 2123K, 2193K clock cycles on ESP32 for key generation, encapsulation and decapsulation respectively. Benefiting from the dual core feature on ESP32, we speed up the implementation of Saber by rearranging the computing steps and assigning proper tasks to two cores executing in parallel. Our dual-core version implementation takes 1176K, 1625K, 1514K clock cycles for key generation, encapsulation and decapsulation respectively

Addressing Inequities in Urban Health: Do Decision-Makers Have the Data They Need? Report from the Urban Health Data Special Session at International Conference on Urban Health Dhaka 2015

Rapid and uncontrolled urbanisation across low and middle-income countries is leading to ever expanding numbers of urban poor, defined here as slum dwellers and the homeless. It is estimated that 828 million people are currently living in slum conditions. If governments, donors and NGOs are to respond to these growing inequities they need data that adequately represents the needs of the urban poorest as well as others across the socio-economic spectrum. We report on the findings of a special session held at the International Conference on Urban Health, Dhaka 2015. We present an overview of the need for data on urban health for planning and allocating resources to address urban inequities. Such data needs to provide information on differences between urban and rural areas nationally, between and within urban communities. We discuss the limitations of data most commonly available to national and municipality level government, donor and NGO staff. In particular we assess, with reference to the WHO’s Urban HEART tool, the challenges in the design of household surveys in understanding urban health inequities. We then present two novel approaches aimed at improving the information on the health of the urban poorest. The first uses gridded population sampling techniques within the design and implementation of household surveys and the second adapts Urban HEART into a participatory approach which enables slum residents to assess indicators whilst simultaneously planning the response. We argue that if progress is to be made towards inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable cities, as articulated in Sustainable Development Goal 11, then understanding urban health inequities is a vital pre-requisite to an effective response by governments, donors, NGOs and communities

A New Era in the Quest for Dark Matter

There is a growing sense of `crisis' in the dark matter community, due to the absence of evidence for the most popular candidates such as weakly interacting massive particles, axions, and sterile neutrinos, despite the enormous effort that has gone into searching for these particles. Here, we discuss what we have learned about the nature of dark matter from past experiments, and the implications for planned dark matter searches in the next decade. We argue that diversifying the experimental effort, incorporating astronomical surveys and gravitational wave observations, is our best hope to make progress on the dark matter problem.Comment: Published in Nature, online on 04 Oct 2018. 13 pages, 1 figur

Hypnosis for treatment of insomnia in school-age children: a retrospective chart review

BACKGROUND: The purposes of this study are to document psychosocial stressors and medical conditions associated with development of insomnia in school-age children and to report use of hypnosis for this condition. METHODS: A retrospective chart review was performed for 84 children and adolescents with insomnia, excluding those with central or obstructive sleep apnea. All patients were offered and accepted instruction in self-hypnosis for treatment of insomnia, and for other symptoms if it was felt that these were amenable to therapy with hypnosis. Seventy-five patients returned for follow-up after the first hypnosis session. Their mean age was 12 years (range, 7–17). When insomnia did not resolve after the first instruction session, patients were offered the opportunity to use hypnosis to gain insight into the cause. RESULTS: Younger children were more likely to report that the insomnia was related to fears. Two or fewer hypnosis sessions were provided to 68% of the patients. Of the 70 patients reporting a delay in sleep onset of more than 30 minutes, 90% reported a reduction in sleep onset time following hypnosis. Of the 21 patients reporting nighttime awakenings more than once a week, 52% reported resolution of the awakenings and 38% reported improvement. Somatic complaints amenable to hypnosis were reported by 41%, including chest pain, dyspnea, functional abdominal pain, habit cough, headaches, and vocal cord dysfunction. Among these patients, 87% reported improvement or resolution of the somatic complaints following hypnosis. CONCLUSION: Use of hypnosis appears to facilitate efficient therapy for insomnia in school-age children