GALA: an international multicentre randomised trial comparing general anaesthesia versus local anaesthesia for carotid surgery

Background: Patients who have severe narrowing at or near the origin of the internal carotid artery as a result of atherosclerosis have a high risk of ischaemic stroke ipsilateral to the arterial lesion. Previous trials have shown that carotid endarterectomy improves long-term outcomes, particularly when performed soon after a prior transient ischaemic attack or mild ischaemic stroke. However, complications may occur during or soon after surgery, the most serious of which is stroke, which can be fatal. It has been suggested that performing the operation under local anaesthesia, rather than general anaesthesia, may be safer. Therefore, a prospective, randomised trial of local versus general anaesthesia for carotid endarterectomy was proposed to determine whether type of anaesthesia influences peri-operative morbidity and mortality, quality of life and longer term outcome in terms of stroke-free survival. Methods/design: A two-arm, parallel group, multicentre randomised controlled trial with a recruitment target of 5000 patients. For entry into the study, in the opinion of the responsible clinician, the patient requiring an endarterectomy must be suitable for either local or general anaesthesia, and have no clear indication for either type. All patients with symptomatic or asymptomatic internal carotid stenosis for whom open surgery is advised are eligible. There is no upper age limit. Exclusion criteria are: no informed consent; definite preference for local or general anaesthetic by the clinician or patient; patient unlikely to be able to co-operate with awake testing during local anaesthesia; patient requiring simultaneous bilateral carotid endarterectomy; carotid endarterectomy combined with another operation such as coronary bypass surgery; and, the patient has been randomised into the trial previously. Patients are randomised to local or general anaesthesia by the central trial office. The primary outcome is the proportion of patients alive, stroke free ( including retinal infarction) and without myocardial infarction 30 days post-surgery. Secondary outcomes include the proportion of patients alive and stroke free at one year; health related quality of life at 30 days; surgical adverse events, re-operation and re-admission rates; the relative cost of the two methods of anaesthesia; length of stay and intensive and high dependency bed occupancy

Against pragmatism: on efficacy, effectiveness and the real world

Explanatory and pragmatic trials represent ends of a continuum of attitudes about clinical trial design. Recent literature argues that pragmatic trials are more informative about clinical care in the real world. Although there is place for more pragmatic studies to inform clinical practice and health policy decision-making, we are concerned that it is generally under-appreciated that extrapolating the results of broadly inclusive pragmatic trials to the care of real patients may often be as problematic as extrapolating the results of narrowly focused explanatory or efficacy trials. Simplistic interpretation of pragmatic trials runs the risk of driving harmful policies

The stability paradox : why expansion of education for women has not delayed age at first union or childbearing in Latin America

Despite substantial improvements in women's education, the age atwhich Latin American women marry (cohabit) or become mothers for the first time has barely decreased over the past four decades. We refer to this as the "stability paradox." We examine the relationship between years of schooling and transitions to first union or child, analyzing retrospective information from 50 cohorts of women born between 1940 and 1989 in 12 Latin American countries. Absolute and relative measures of schooling are compared. Data is drawn from 38 Demographic Health Surveys (DHS) conducted between 1986 and 2012 in these countries. Results show that expected postponement in family transitions due to educational expansion was offset by a rise in union formation and childbearing within strata of absolute education, but stayed approximately constant within strata of relative education. The relative measure of education retains the stratifying power of education but neutralizes any effect attached to a specific number of years of schooling and the learning skills associated with them. This is consistent with the idea that access to education in Latin America reproduces existing patterns of socioeconomic advantage, rather than creating a more equitable distribution of learning opportunities and outcomes

Grading of carotid artery stenosis with multidetector-row CT angiography: visual estimation or caliper measurements?

To assess the optimal method for grading carotid artery stenosis with computed tomographic angiography (CTA), we compared visual estimation to caliper measurements, and determined inter-observer variability and agreement relative to digital subtraction angiography (DSA). We included 46 patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis for whom CTA and DSA of 55 carotids was available. Stenosis quantification by CTA using visual estimation (CTAVE) (method 1) was compared with caliper measurements using subjectively optimized wide window settings (method 2) or predefined contrast-dependent narrow window settings (method 3). Measurements were independently performed by two radiologists and two residents. To determine accuracy and inter-observer variability, we calculated linear weighted kappa, performed a Bland-Altman analysis and calculated mean difference (bias) and standard deviation of differences (SDD). For inter-observer variability, kappa analysis was “very good” (0.85) for expert observers using CTAVE compared with “good” (0.61) for experts using DSA. Compared with DSA, method 1 led to overestimation (bias 5.8–8.0%, SDD 10.6–14.4), method 3 led to underestimation (bias −6.3 to −3.0%, SDD 13.0–18.1). Measurement variability between DSA and visual estimation on CTA (SDD 11.5) is close to the inter-observer variability of repeated measurements on DSA that we found in this study (SDD 11.6). For CTA of carotids, stenosis grading based on visual estimation provides better agreement to grading by DSA compared with stenosis grading based on caliper measurements

Individualised benefit-harm balance of aspirin as primary prevention measure - a good proof-of-concept, but could have been better ...

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The Effects of Midline Cerebellar rTMS on Human Pharyngeal Cortical Activity in the Intact Swallowing Motor System

We sought to compare the effects of 10 Hz cerebellar vermis (vs. unilateral hemispheric and sham) repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) on cortical neuroelectrical activity and thereafter 10 Hz cerebellar vermis (vs. sham) rTMS on swallowing behaviour. Healthy participants (n = 25) were randomly allocated to receive vermis, unilateral hemisphere or sham 10 Hz cerebellar rTMS. Recordings were made using pharyngeal electromyography and manometry catheters, obtaining motor-evoked potentials (MEPs) and pressure recordings. The amplitudes of MEPs elicited using single-pulse TMS delivered to the pharyngeal areas of the motor cortex bilaterally were measured pre- and post-cerebellar stimulation. As in previous studies, abductor policis brevis (APB) MEPs were measured to assess post-rTMS modulation specificity. Swallowing was assessed using a swallowing accuracy task. Measurements were made at baseline and 15-min intervals for an hour post-intervention. Measurements involved TMS being used to elicit 10 MEPs bilaterally over the pharyngeal areas of the motor cortex, over the APB cortical representation adjacent to the pharyngeal area with the lowest resting motor threshold and 5 MEPs bilaterally over pharyngeal areas of the cerebellar hemispheres. Swallowing accuracy was assessed by giving participants 10 attempts to swallow and hit a digital target. Cerebellar vermis rTMS caused significant suppression of cortical pharyngeal MEP amplitudes compared with unilateral rTMS and sham (P = 0.0005, 0.002). APB and cerebellar MEP amplitudes were unaffected as were pharyngeal and APB MEP latencies. Following cerebellar vermis rTMS there was a significant reduction in swallowing accuracy compared with sham (P = 0.001). Our findings demonstrate cerebellar vermis rTMS exerts a suppressive effect on pharyngeal motor cortical activity and swallowing behaviour

Blood pressure variability and cardiovascular risk in the PROspective study of pravastatin in the elderly at risk (PROSPER)

Variability in blood pressure predicts cardiovascular disease in young- and middle-aged subjects, but relevant data for older individuals are sparse. We analysed data from the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) study of 5804 participants aged 70–82 years with a history of, or risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Visit-to-visit variability in blood pressure (standard deviation) was determined using a minimum of five measurements over 1 year; an inception cohort of 4819 subjects had subsequent in-trial 3 years follow-up; longer-term follow-up (mean 7.1 years) was available for 1808 subjects. Higher systolic blood pressure variability independently predicted long-term follow-up vascular and total mortality (hazard ratio per 5 mmHg increase in standard deviation of systolic blood pressure = 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.4; hazard ratio 1.1, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.2, respectively). Variability in diastolic blood pressure associated with increased risk for coronary events (hazard ratio 1.5, 95% confidence interval 1.2–1.8 for each 5 mmHg increase), heart failure hospitalisation (hazard ratio 1.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.8) and vascular (hazard ratio 1.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.7) and total mortality (hazard ratio 1.3, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.5), all in long-term follow-up. Pulse pressure variability was associated with increased stroke risk (hazard ratio 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.0–1.4 for each 5 mmHg increase), vascular mortality (hazard ratio 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.0–1.3) and total mortality (hazard ratio 1.1, 95% confidence interval 1.0–1.2), all in long-term follow-up. All associations were independent of respective mean blood pressure levels, age, gender, in-trial treatment group (pravastatin or placebo) and prior vascular disease and cardiovascular disease risk factors. Our observations suggest variability in diastolic blood pressure is more strongly associated with vascular or total mortality than is systolic pressure variability in older high-risk subjects

Multivariable risk prediction can greatly enhance the statistical power of clinical trial subgroup analysis

BACKGROUND: When subgroup analyses of a positive clinical trial are unrevealing, such findings are commonly used to argue that the treatment's benefits apply to the entire study population; however, such analyses are often limited by poor statistical power. Multivariable risk-stratified analysis has been proposed as an important advance in investigating heterogeneity in treatment benefits, yet no one has conducted a systematic statistical examination of circumstances influencing the relative merits of this approach vs. conventional subgroup analysis. METHODS: Using simulated clinical trials in which the probability of outcomes in individual patients was stochastically determined by the presence of risk factors and the effects of treatment, we examined the relative merits of a conventional vs. a "risk-stratified" subgroup analysis under a variety of circumstances in which there is a small amount of uniformly distributed treatment-related harm. The statistical power to detect treatment-effect heterogeneity was calculated for risk-stratified and conventional subgroup analysis while varying: 1) the number, prevalence and odds ratios of individual risk factors for risk in the absence of treatment, 2) the predictiveness of the multivariable risk model (including the accuracy of its weights), 3) the degree of treatment-related harm, and 5) the average untreated risk of the study population. RESULTS: Conventional subgroup analysis (in which single patient attributes are evaluated "one-at-a-time") had at best moderate statistical power (30% to 45%) to detect variation in a treatment's net relative risk reduction resulting from treatment-related harm, even under optimal circumstances (overall statistical power of the study was good and treatment-effect heterogeneity was evaluated across a major risk factor [OR = 3]). In some instances a multi-variable risk-stratified approach also had low to moderate statistical power (especially when the multivariable risk prediction tool had low discrimination). However, a multivariable risk-stratified approach can have excellent statistical power to detect heterogeneity in net treatment benefit under a wide variety of circumstances, instances under which conventional subgroup analysis has poor statistical power. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that under many likely scenarios, a multivariable risk-stratified approach will have substantially greater statistical power than conventional subgroup analysis for detecting heterogeneity in treatment benefits and safety related to previously unidentified treatment-related harm. Subgroup analyses must always be well-justified and interpreted with care, and conventional subgroup analyses can be useful under some circumstances; however, clinical trial reporting should include a multivariable risk-stratified analysis when an adequate externally-developed risk prediction tool is available

Myocardial infarction with unusual presentation of otalgia: a case report

A rare case of a patient with unusual symptoms of earache and sore throat for cardiac ischemia is presented. A diagnosis of non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) was made based on initial elevation of troponin and an abnormal electrocardiograph (ECG). Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) performed with stent placement in the occluded coronary vessel was followed by a decrease in troponin level and complete resolution of the ear and throat pain and patient recovery from cardiac ischemia

Medical concepts related to individual risk are better explained with "plausibility" rather than "probability"

BACKGROUND: The concept of risk has pervaded medical literature in the last decades and has become a familiar topic, and the concept of probability, linked to binary logic approach, is commonly applied in epidemiology and clinical medicine. The application of probability theory to groups of individuals is quite straightforward but can pose communication challenges at individual level. Few articles by the way have tried to focus the concept of "risk" at the individual subject level rather than at population level. DISCUSSION: The author has reviewed the conceptual framework which has led to the use of probability theory in the medical field in a time when the principal causes of death were represented by acute disease often of infective origin. In the present scenario, in which chronic degenerative disease dominate and there are smooth transitions between health and disease the use of fuzzy logic rather than binary logic would be more appropriate. The use of fuzzy logic in which more than two possible truth-value assignments are allowed overcomes the trap of probability theory when dealing with uncertain outcomes, thereby making the meaning of a certain prognostic statement easier to understand by the patient. SUMMARY: At individual subject level the recourse to the term plausibility, related to fuzzy logic, would help the physician to communicate to the patient more efficiently in comparison with the term probability, related to binary logic. This would represent an evident advantage for the transfer of medical evidences to individual subjects