Recent advances in flood forecasting and flood risk assessment

International audienceRecent large floods in Europe have led to increased interest in research and development of flood forecasting systems. Some of these events have been provoked by some of the wettest rainfall periods on record which has led to speculation that such extremes are attributable in some measure to anthropogenic global warming and represent the beginning of a period of higher flood frequency. Whilst current trends in extreme event statistics will be difficult to discern, conclusively, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of high floods in the 20th century for basins greater than 2x105 km2. There is also increasing that anthropogenic forcing of climate change may lead to an increased probability of extreme precipitation and, hence, of flooding. There is, therefore, major emphasis on the improvement of operational flood forecasting systems in Europe, with significant European Community spending on research and development on prototype forecasting systems and flood risk management projects. This Special Issue synthesises the most relevant scientific and technological results presented at the International Conference on Flood Forecasting in Europe held in Rotterdam from 3-5 March 2003. During that meeting 150 scientists, forecasters and stakeholders from four continents assembled to present their work and current operational best practice and to discuss future directions of scientific and technological efforts in flood prediction and prevention. The papers presented at the conference fall into seven themes, as follows

Topical tacrolimus and periodontal therapy in the management of a case of oral chronic GVHD characterized by specific gingival localization.

Background. Chronic graft versus host disease (cGVHD) is a complication following bone marrow transplantation. The oral lesions are difficult to control with a systemic pharmacological therapy. Case Description. A 63-year-old female patient, who underwent an allogeniec transplantation for acute myeloid leukemia, developed a chronic oral and cutaneous GVHD. The patient was treated with topical tacrolimus 0.1%, twice daily for two months, and underwent a protocol of oral hygiene characterized by 3 appointments of scaling, root planning, and daily oral hygiene instructions. The patient showed marked resolution of gingival lesions and a significant improvement of related pain and gingival inflammatory indexes. Clinical Implications. This case report suggests that treatment with topical tacrolimus and professional oral hygiene may be helpful in the management of chronic oral GVHD with severe gingival involvement

Evaluation of subcutaneous proleukin (Interleukin-2) in a randomized international trial (ESPRIT): Geographical and gender differences in the baseline characteristics of participants

Background: ESPRIT, is a phase III, open-label, randomized, international clinical trial evaluating the effects of subcutaneous recombinant interleukin-2 (rIL-2) plus antiretroviral therapy (ART) versus ART alone on HIV-disease progression and death in HIV-1-infected individuals with CD4+ T-cells ≥300 cells/μL. Objectives: To describe the baseline characteristics of participants randomized to ESPRIT overall and by geographic location. Method: Baseline characteristics of randomized participants were summarized by region. Results: 4,150 patients were enrolled in ESPRIT from 254 sites in 25 countries. 41%, 27%, 16%, 11%, and 5% were enrolled in Europe, North America, South America, Asia, and Australia, respectively. The median age was 40 years, 81% were men, and 76%, 11%, and 9% were Caucasian, Asian, and African American or African, respectively. 44% of women enrolled (n = 769) were enrolled in Thailand and Argentina. Overall, 55% and 38% of the cohort acquired HIV through male homosexual and heterosexual contact, respectively. 25% had a prior history of AIDS-defining illness; Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia, M. tuberculosis, and esophageal candida were most commonly reported. Median nadir and baseline CD4+ T-cell counts were 199 and 458 cells/μL, respectively. 6% and 13% were hepatitis B or C virus coinfected, respectively. Median duration of antiretroviral therapy (ART) was 4.2 years; the longest median duration was in Australia (5.2 years) and the shortest was in Asia (2.3 years). 17%, 13%, and 69% of participants began ART before 1995, between 1996 and 1997, and from 1998 onward, respectively. 86% used ART from two or more ART classes, with 49% using a protease inhibitor-based regimen and 46% using a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based regimen. 78% had plasma HIV RNA below detection (<500 cp/mL). Conclusion: ESPRIT has enrolled a diverse population of HIV-infected individuals including large populations of women and patients of African-American/African and Asian ethnicity often underrepresented in HIV research. As a consequence, the results of the study may have wide global applicability

Bridge Foundation Pinning Resistance Implied by Simplefied Equivalent Static Analysis Procedure for Lateral Spreading

Liquefaction-induced lateral spreading is a critical design case for many bridges located in high-seismicity regions of the Pacific Northwest. The design procedures currently used in the region tend to rely upon a simplified 2D plane strain analytical approach, and as a result may result in overly conservative and expensive design solutions. In some cases this over-conservatism has limited the feasibility of entire bridge projects. Given the shortcomings of the current design procedure, a modified design framework has been proposed to supplant the existing approach. This modified procedure takes an equivalent static approach (ESA) that makes consideration for 3D effects and foundation pinning through the combination of a foundation pushover analysis with a pseudo-static slope stability analysis to find a compatible foundation displacement as shown below