Winter precipitation and cyclones in the Mediterranean region: future climate scenarios in a regional simulation

Future climate projections show higher/lower winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) precipitation in the northern/southern Mediterranean region than in present climate conditions. This paper analyzes the results of regional model simulations of the A2 and B2 scenarios, which confirm this opposite precipitation change and link it to the change of cyclone activity. The increase of the winter cyclone activity in future climate scenarios over western Europe is responsible for the larger precipitation at the northern coast of the basin, though the bulk of the change is located outside the Mediterranean region. The reduction of cyclone activity inside the Mediterranean region in future scenarios is responsible for the lower precipitation at the southern and eastern Mediterranean coast

Links of the significant wave height distribution in the Mediterranean sea with the Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns

This study analyzes the link between the SWH (Significant Wave Height) distribution in the Mediterranean Sea during the second half of the 20th century and the Northern Hemisphere SLP (Sea Level Pressure) teleconnection patterns. <br></br> The SWH distribution is computed using the WAM (WAve Model) forced by the surface wind fields provided by the ERA-40 reanalysis for the period 1958–2001. The time series of mid-latitude teleconnection patterns are downloaded from the NOAA web site. This study shows that several mid-latitude patterns are linked to the SWH field in the Mediterranean, especially in its western part during the cold season: East Atlantic Pattern (EA), Scandinavian Pattern (SCA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern (EA/WR) and East Pacific/ North Pacific Pattern (EP/NP). Though the East Atlantic pattern exerts the largest influence, it is not sufficient to characterize the dominant variability. NAO, though relevant, has an effect smaller than EA and comparable to other patterns. Some link results from possibly spurious structures. Patterns which have a very different global structure are associated to similar spatial features of the wave variability in the Mediterranean Sea. These two problems are, admittedly, shortcomings of this analysis, which shows the complexity of the response of the Mediterranean SWH to global scale SLP teleconnection patterns

Links of the significant wave height distribution in the Mediterranean sea with the Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns

Abstract. This study analyzes the link between the SWH (Significant Wave Height) distribution in the Mediterranean Sea during the second half of the 20th century and the Northern Hemisphere SLP (Sea Level Pressure) teleconnection patterns. The SWH distribution is computed using the WAM (WAve Model) forced by the surface wind fields provided by the ERA-40 reanalysis for the period 1958&amp;ndash;2001. The time series of mid-latitude teleconnection patterns are downloaded from the NOAA web site. This study shows that several mid-latitude patterns are linked to the SWH field in the Mediterranean, especially in its western part during the cold season: East Atlantic Pattern (EA), Scandinavian Pattern (SCA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern (EA/WR) and East Pacific/ North Pacific Pattern (EP/NP). Though the East Atlantic pattern exerts the largest influence, it is not sufficient to characterize the dominant variability. NAO, though relevant, has an effect smaller than EA and comparable to other patterns. Some link results from possibly spurious structures. Patterns which have a very different global structure are associated to similar spatial features of the wave variability in the Mediterranean Sea. These two problems are, admittedly, shortcomings of this analysis, which shows the complexity of the response of the Mediterranean SWH to global scale SLP teleconnection patterns.</p

High resolution climate projection of storm surge at the Venetian coast

Abstract. Climate change impact on storm surge regime is of great importance for the safety and maintenance of Venice. In this study a future storm surge scenario is evaluated using new high resolution sea level pressure and wind data recently produced by EC-Earth, an Earth System Model based on the operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The study considers an ensemble of six 5 yr long simulations of the rcp45 scenario at 0.25° resolution and compares the 2094–2098 to the 2004–2008 period. EC-Earth sea level pressure and surface wind fields are used as input for a shallow water hydrodynamic model (HYPSE) which computes sea level and barotropic currents in the Adriatic Sea. Results show that a high resolution climate model is needed for producing realistic values of storm surge statistics and confirm previous studies in that they show little sensitivity of storm surge levels to climate change. However, some climate change signals are detected, such as increased persistence of high pressure conditions, an increased frequency of windless hour, and a decreased number of moderate windstorms

Climate change assessment for Mediterranean agricultural areas by statistical downscaling

In this paper we produce projections of seasonal precipitation for four Mediterranean areas: Apulia region (Italy), Ebro river basin (Spain), Po valley (Italy) and Antalya province (Turkey). We performed the statistical downscaling using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) in two versions: in one case Principal Component Analysis (PCA) filter is applied only to predictor and in the other to both predictor and predictand. After performing a validation test, CCA after PCA filter on both predictor and predictand has been chosen. Sea level pressure (SLP) is used as predictor. Downscaling has been carried out for the scenarios A2 and B2 on the basis of three GCM's: the CCCma-GCM2, the Csiro-MK2 and HadCM3. Three consecutive 30-year periods have been considered. For Summer precipitation in Apulia region we also use the 500 hPa temperature (T500) as predictor, obtaining comparable results. Results show different climate change signals in the four areas and confirm the need of an analysis that is capable of resolving internal differences within the Mediterranean region. The most robust signal is the reduction of Summer precipitation in the Ebro river basin. Other significative results are the increase of precipitation over Apulia in Summer, the reduction over the Po-valley in Spring and Autumn and the increase over the Antalya province in Summer and Autumn

Preface: Understanding dynamics and current developments of climate extremes in the Mediterranean region

There is an increasing interest of scientists on climate extremes. A progressively larger number of papers dealing with climate issues have been produced in the past 15 yr, and those dealing with extremes have increased at an even faster pace. The number of papers on extremes in the Mediterranean follows this overall trend and confirms how extremes are perceived to be important by the scientific community and by society. This special issue (which is mainly related to activities of the MedCLIVAR (Mediterranean CLImate VARiability and Predictability) and CIRCE (Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment) projects), contains thirteen papers that are representative of current research on extremes in the Mediterranean region. Five have precipitation as its main target, four temperature (one paper addresses both variables), and two droughts; the remaining papers consider sea level, winds and impacts on society. Results are quite clear concerning climate evolution toward progressively hotter temperature extremes, but more controversial for precipitation, though in the published literature there are indications for a future increasing intensity of hydrological extremes (intense precipitation events and droughts). Scenario simulations suggest an attenuation of extreme storms, winds, waves and surges, but more results are requested for confirming this future change

On the correct surface stress for the prediction of the wind wave field and the storm surge in the Northern Adriatic Sea

This paper discusses which formulation of the surface stress over the sea determines the most accurate prediction of the wind wave field and storm surge in the Northern Adriatic Sea. The study shows that the results of the storm surge and wind wave models, when compared to the available observations, can be used for the validation of the surface stress and of the expression adopted for the ssr (sea surface roughness). The results are representative of short fetch and young wind sea conditions. The agreement between the results and the measurements shows the feasibility of the wind wave and storm surge predictions in the Adriatic Sea and supports the dependence of the ssr, and, therefore, of the surface stress, on the spectrum of the surface wave

Comparison of assimilation results from an optimal interpolation and the Green's function method using ERS-1 SAR wave mode spectra

The optimal interpolation and the Green's function method have been applied successfully to the assimilation of ocean wave spectra retrieved from ERS-1 SAR wave mode spectra into the WAModel. Both assimilation methods determine wind corrections with respect to initial winds. Spectra are partitioned into windsea and swell components and wind corrections are computed from windsea corrections. For both methods the wind corrections are of compatible magnitude. The Green's function determines also wind corrections from swell partitionings, by following the swell component back to its origin. Wind corrections are, therefore, scattered in space and time. It is shown that both assimilation schemes agree quite well and that the assimilation of two dimensional wave spectra is useful to improve modeling of ocean waves and produce wind field corrections as data for meteorological data assimilation

The effect of the boundary conditions on the simulation of the 4 November 1966 storm over Italy

This study analyses the extreme event which took place on 4 November 1966, when a storm produced intense and persistent precipitation over northern and central Italy and an extreme surge in the northern Adriatic Sea, causing casualties and huge damages. Numerical simulations with a regional atmospheric model have been performed to reconstruct the phenomenology of the event. Results have been compared with observations. This study shows that the choice of the global fields for initial and boundary conditions is crucial for the quality of the reconstruction. The simulation is reasonably accurate if they are extracted from the NCEP re-analysis, while it is not satisfactory if ERA-40 data are used, though fields have a higher resolution in the ERA-40 than in the NCEP set of data. The internal physics of the model plays a smaller role in the reproduction of the dynamics of the event

The disastrous storm of 4 November 1966 on Italy

International audienceThis is the first modeling reconstruction of the whole aspects (both meteorological and oceanographic) of the storm which hit Italy on 4 November 1966, producing 118 victims and widespread damages in Tuscany, at the northern Adriatic coast and in the north-eastern Italian Alps. The storm was produced by a cyclone which formed in the western Mediterranean and moved eastward towards Italy, reaching the Thyrrenian Sea, and then northward. The most peculiar characteristic of the storm has been the strong zonal pressure gradient and the consequent intensity and long fetch of the south-easterly sirocco wind, which advected a large amount of warm moist air, and determined exceptional orographic precipitation over Tuscany and the north-eastern Alps. The funneling of the wind between the mountain chains surrounding the Adriatic basin further increased the wind speed and determined the highest ever recorded storm surge along the Venetian coast. This study shows that present models would be able to produce a reasonably accurate simulation of the meteorological event (surface pressure, wind and precipitation fields, and storm surge level). The exceptional intensity of the event is not suggested by single parameters such as the sea level pressure minimum, the wind speed or the total accumulated precipitation. In fact, the precipitation was extreme only in some locations and the pressure minimum was not particularly deep. Moreover, the prediction of the damages produced by the river run-off and landslides would have required other informations concerning soil condition, snow coverage, and storage of water reservoirs before the event. This indicates that an integrated approach is required for assessing the probability of such damages both on a weather forecast and on a climate change perspective