Cambio climático en centroamérica: un estudio para el Golfo de Fonseca

Ponencia presentada en: IX Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Almería entre el 28 y el 30 de octubre de 2014.[ES]Una de las regiones del mundo que puede sufrir especialmente las consecuencias del cambio climático a lo largo del siglo XXI es Centroamérica; lamentablemente, los estudios sobre esta zona son escasos y las conclusiones son relativas a áreas grandes y no lo suficientemente locales. Con el fin de evaluar el comportamiento de la temperatura y la precipitación en las décadas futuras se ha adaptado una técnica de downscaling estadístico (la metodología FICLIMA) a las latitudes centroamericanas basándonos en sus características climáticas. Tal adaptación considera la evaluación de diferentes variables a diferentes alturas hasta encontrar aquel modelo que mejor refleja la climatología de la zona, mediante el empleo del reanálisis NCEP y el uso de observatorios meteorológicos locales. Esto permite realizar un estudio local en el área del Golfo de Fonseca a partir de varios modelos climáticos de la iniciativa CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) y bajo diferentes RCPs (los escenarios climáticos asociados al 5º informe del Grupo Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre el Cambio Climático o IPCC5) y evaluar los posibles cambios para las variables de temperatura máxima diaria, temperatura mínima diaria, y precipitación diaria a lo largo del siglo XXI.[EN]One of the areas of the world that may especially suffer the consequences of climate change over the twenty-first century is Central America; unfortunately, studies on this area are scarce and the conclusions are related to large areas and not enough local. In order to evaluate the behavior of the temperature and precipitation in the coming decades, a statistical downscaling technique (FICLIMA methodology) has been adapted to the Central American latitudes based on its climatic characteristics. Such adaptation considers the evaluation of different variables at different heights until finding that model that best reflects the climate of the area, by using the NCEP reanalysis and the use of local meteorological observatories. This allows performing a local study in the area of the Gulf of Fonseca from several climate models belonging to the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) initiative and under several RCPs (climate scenarios associated to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC5) and evaluate the potential changes associated to the daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature and daily precipitation along the 21st century

Evolución de la precipitación extrema en España mediante regionalización estadística de modelos climáticos del CMIP5

Ponencia presentada en: XXXIII Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el XIV Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en Oviedo, del 7 al 9 de abril de 2014

Near and long-term climate change in the RESCCUE project: climate extreme scenarios from downscaled CMIP5 multi-model

Ponencia presentada en: XI Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Cartagena entre el 17 y el 19 de octubre de 2018.[ES]El proyecto RESCCUE tiene como objetivo mejorar la resiliencia urbana de tres casos piloto, Barcelona, Lisboa y Bristol, a través de una evaluación de los impactos del cambio climático en varios sectores. En este estudio, se han obtenido proyecciones climáticas locales futuras y predicciones decadales para las tres ciudades a partir de un multi-modelo generado a escala local. Para este propósito, un método estadístico de downscaling en dos pasos se aplicó a las salidas de 10 modelos del experimento CMIP5 para simular diferentes variables climáticas, especialmente la precipitación subdiaria extrema. Se definieron eventos extremos sintéticos a partir de períodos de retorno ajustados con varias distribuciones teóricas: las distribuciones Gamma, Weibull, Gumbel y Monjo. En cuanto a los resultados, se esperan incrementos significativos en los valores de eventos extremos de temperatura máxima y precipitación subdiaria en las tres ciudades. Por otro lado, la altura de las olas extremas y la marea ciclónica disminuirían en algunos casos.[EN]The RESCCUE project aims to improve urban resilience of three pilot cases, Barcelona, Lisbon and Bristol, through an assessment of climate change impacts in several sectors. In this study, future local climate projections and decadal predictions have been obtained for the three cities from a multi-model generated at local scale. For this purpose, a two-step statistical downscaling method was applied to ten CMIP5 model outputs to simulate several climate drivers, focusing on extreme subdaily precipitation. Synthetic extreme events were defined for low and high return periods fitting several theoretical distributions: 2, 3 and 4-parametric versions of Gamma, Weibull, Gumbel and Monjo distributions. Regarding the results, significant increases in extreme values of maximum temperature and subdaily precipitation are expected in the three cities. Finally, extreme wave height and storm surge would decrease for some cases.This study has been performed under the RESCCUE Project (RESilience to cope with Climate Change in Urban arEas a multisectorial approach focusing on water), which has received funding from European Commission by means of Horizon 2020, the EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation, under Grant Agreement no. 700174

¿Cambiará el régimen de precipitación extrema en España?

Ponencia presentada en: IX Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Almería entre el 28 y el 30 de octubre de 2014.[ES]La precipitación presenta una gran variabilidad natural que se refleja notablemente en el carácter irregular del clima mediterráneo. Dicha variabilidad se traduce en una elevada incertidumbre sobre el posible cambio de las precipitaciones en España. El objetivo de este trabajo es estudiar la evolución del régimen de precipitaciones extremas en España durante los próximos 100 años mediante el uso de varios modelos climáticos del experimento CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5). En este estudio se analizan 18 proyecciones climáticas correspondientes a 9 modelos ejecutados bajo los escenarios RCP45 y RCP85, y se comparan con la simulación historical . Las proyecciones fueron regionalizadas mediante un método estadístico de dos pasos, basado en una estratificación analógica y una función de transferencia. Se seleccionaron las 144 series temporales que presentan la pluviometría más extrema de un total de 5.217 estaciones de la red estatal de la AEMET. Como umbral extremo, se tomó la acumulación de 250 mm en un día para un período de retorno de 100 años.[EN]Precipitation has a large natural variability which is notably shown in the irregular character of the Mediterranean climate. This variability results in high uncertainty about the possible change in precipitation in Spain. The objective of this work is to study the evolution of the extreme precipitation regime in Spain for the next 100 years by using several climate models of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) experiment. In this study, 18 future climate projections executed by 9 models under the RCP45 and the RCP85 scenarios are analyzed and then compared with the historical (21st century) simulation. The global climate projections were downscaled using a two-step statistical method, based on an analog stratification and a transfer function. 144 time series having the most extreme rainfall of the 5,217 stations of the AEMET (Spanish Meteorological Agency) network were selected. As an extreme threshold, the accumulation of 250 mm in a day for a return period of 100 years was taken

Impactos del cambio climático sobre los ecosistemas fluviales en España y definición de medidas de adaptación para su protección

Ponencia presentada en: XXXIII Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el XIV Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en Oviedo, del 7 al 9 de abril de 2014

Brown trout thermal niche and climate change: expected changes in the distribution of cold-water fish in central Spain

This paper addresses the determination of the realized thermal niche and the effects of climate change on the range distribution of two brown trout populations inhabiting two streams in the Duero River basin (Iberian Peninsula) at the edge of the natural distribution area of this species. For reaching these goals, new methodological developments were applied to improve reliability of forecasts. Water temperature data were collected using 11 thermographs located along the altitudinal gradient, and they were used to model the relationship between stream temperature and air temperature along the river continuum. Trout abundance was studied using electrofishing at 37 sites to determine the current distribution. The RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 change scenarios adopted by the International Panel of Climate Change for its Fifth Assessment Report were used for simulations and local downscaling in this study. We found more reliable results using the daily mean stream temperature than maximum daily temperature and their respective seven days moving-average to determine the distribution thresholds. Thereby, the observed limits of the summer distribution of brown trout were linked to thresholds between 18.1ºC and 18.7ºC. These temperatures characterise a realised thermal niche narrower than the physiological thermal range. In the most unfavourable climate change scenario, the thermal habitat loss of brown trout increased to 38% (Cega stream) and 11% (Pirón stream) in the upstream direction at the end of the century; however, at the Cega stream, the range reduction could reach 56% due to the effect of a ?warm-window? opening in the piedmont reach

Influencia del Atlántico Norte sobre la población de la anguila europea española: relaciones en el pasado y para un cambio climático futuro

Ponencia presentada en: XXXIV Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el XVII Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en Teruel, del 29 de febrero al 2 de marzo de 2016

Local decadal prediction according to statistical/dynamical approaches

Dynamical climate models present an initialization problem due to the poor availability of deep oceanic data, which is required for the model assimilation process. In this sense, teleconnection indices, defined from spatial and temporal patterns of climatic variables, are conceived as useful tools to complement them. In this work, the near-term climate predictability of 35 temperature and 36 precipitation time series of three cities (Barcelona, Bristol and Lisbon) was analysed using two approaches: (a) a statistical–dynamical combination of selfpredictable teleconnection indices and long-term climate projections on a local scale and (b) dynamical model outputs obtained from drift-corrected decadal experiments. Fourier and wavelet analyses were used to assess the predictability of seven teleconnection indices thanks to a cross-validation process (with differentiated training and validation periods). The standardized absolute error of teleconnection-based prediction was compared with that obtained from a (9) multi-model ensemble based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Results showed that decadal predictions at horizons between 20 and 30 years are adequate for temperature and precipitation if a teleconnection-based approach is used, while temperature is better predicted from a 5-year horizon using drift corrected dynamical outputs

Estimation of future extreme rainfall in Barcelona (Spain) under monofractal hypothesis

Climate change effects on subdaily rainfall (from 5¿min to a few hours) can hardly be measured in mid-latitude climates due to the high natural variability of the precipitation patterns and their effects on local topography. The goal of this study was to obtain change projections of intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves, for up to 2-h precipitation events, comparing two approaches that use the daily outputs of the downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model projections: (a) direct scaling of the expected probable precipitation, from 2-year to 500-year return periods of daily rainfall and (b) a new semi-stochastic approach, built by combining the physically forced outputs of climate models (on a daily scale) and stochastic simulation given by the probability distribution of a concentration index (n-index) for individual rainfall events (on a subdaily scale). The approaches were applied to a set of 27 stations located around Barcelona, Spain, including a long reference series (with 5-min rainfall records since 1927), representing the highly variable Mediterranean climate. The validation process showed a systematic error (bias) generally smaller than 10%, especially for rainfall extreme events with durations of less than 2¿h. The concentration n-index and IDF curves were projected by 10 downscaled CMIP5 climate models under 2 emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), obtaining a consensual increase in both relative concentration and absolute intensities in Barcelona. Ensemble projection of rainfall concentration (n-index) showed an increase up to 10% by 2071–2100 and about 20% (15%–30% range) for maximum intensities of 2-year to 500-year return periods. Results provide robustness in decision-making regarding the design of stormwater management infrastructure at a local scale.This study has been partially developed under the ‘RESilience to cope with Climate Change in Urban arEas’ (RESCCUE) project, funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program (Grant agreement number: 700174) and under the ‘Improving ClimAte Resilience of crItical Assets’ (ICARIA) project, funded by the European Union's Horizon Europe, Cluster 5—Climate, Energy and Mobility (EC Project Code: 101093806). The work is also supported by the Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge (MITECO) of the Spanish Government under the two phases of the ‘IMpacts of climate change on wetlands Affected by GroUndwAter (IMAGUA)’ project. Finally, the authors would like to thank the reviewers for their thoughtful comments.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Stream flow regime, temperature and climate change: the loss of fish habitat

This study is aimed at forecasting the changes in the suitability of brown trout habitat (Salmo trutta L.), caused by alterations in the stream temperature and the flow regime under climate change scenarios. The stream temperature and instantaneous flow in several streams in Central Spain were modelled from daily temperature and precipitation data. Logistic models were used for stream temperature modelling whereas M5? model trees were used to develop the precipitation-runoff models. These models were utilized to simulate the running flows under the climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (5thIPCC). The resulting forecasts suggested a different response of the stream temperature to the atmospheric warming in accordance with the geologic nature of basins. At the same time, significant decreases in summer flow and increases in the frequency of zero-flow events were predicted. In the future, significant declines in summer flow could exacerbate the negative impact on trout populations of increased water temperature by reducing both the suitable spatial habitat and the warming resistance of the water mass