On the dynamics of lending and deposit interest rates in emerging markets: A non-linear approach

This paper studies the dynamics of lending and deposit rates in two emerging markets in Latin America: Colombia and Mexico. The dynamics of lending (deposit) interest rates are driven by the exogenous interbank interest rate and deviations from the long-run lending-interbank (deposit-interbank) interest rate relationship. Allowing for different interest rate behavior during periods characterized by large and small values of the spread, the non-linear specification proves superior to the linear one

Identification and Estimation of a Labour Market Model for the Tradeables Sector: the Greek Case.

This paper derives a theoretical labour market model for the tradeables sector of a small open economy. Using Greek manufacturing data and applying multivariate cointegrating techniques, two cointegrating vectors are estimated based on the a priori restrictions provided by the theoretical model; a labour demand and a real exchange rate equation, respectively. The short-run estimates of the model suggest that labour decisions not only depend upon past disequilibria in the labour market, but also on the discrepancy between the real exchange rate and its implied long-run equilibrium relationship, that is, the magnitude of the real exchange rate misalignment.EMPLOYMENT ; REGRESSION ANALYSIS ; ECONOMIC MODELS ; EUROPE

A Comparative Study on the Use of Classification Algorithms in Financial Forecasting

Financial forecasting is a vital area in computational finance, where several studies have taken place over the years. One way of viewing financial forecasting is as a classification problem, where the goal is to find a model that represents the predictive relationships between predictor attribute values and class attribute values. In this paper we present a comparative study between two bio-inspired classification algorithms, a genetic programming algorithm especially designed for financial forecasting, and an ant colony optimization one, which is designed for classification problems. In addition, we compare the above algorithms with two other state-of-the-art classification algorithms, namely C4.5 and RIPPER. Results show that the ant colony optimization classification algorithm is very successful, significantly outperforming all other algorithms in the given classification problems, which provides insights for improving the design of specific financial forecasting algorithms

Emc aerospace systems analysis Interim scientific report

Analysis and data requirements for solving potential aerospace electromagnetic compatibility problem

Forelimb muscle and joint actions in Archosauria: insights from Crocodylus johnstoni (Pseudosuchia) and Mussaurus patagonicus (Sauropodomorpha)

Many of the major locomotor transitions during the evolution of Archosauria, the lineage including crocodiles and birds as well as extinct Dinosauria, were shifts from quadrupedalism to bipedalism (and vice versa). Those occurred within a continuum between more sprawling and erect modes of locomotion and involved drastic changes of limb anatomy and function in several lineages, including sauropodomorph dinosaurs. We present biomechanical computer models of two locomotor extremes within Archosauria in an analysis of joint ranges of motion and the moment arms of the major forelimb muscles in order to quantify biomechanical differences between more sprawling, pseudosuchian (represented the crocodile Crocodylus johnstoni) and more erect, dinosaurian (represented by the sauropodomorph Mussaurus patagonicus) modes of forelimb function. We compare these two locomotor extremes in terms of the reconstructed musculoskeletal anatomy, ranges of motion of the forelimb joints and the moment arm patterns of muscles across those ranges of joint motion. We reconstructed the three-dimensional paths of 30 muscles acting around the shoulder, elbow and wrist joints. We explicitly evaluate how forelimb joint mobility and muscle actions may have changed with postural and anatomical alterations from basal archosaurs to early sauropodomorphs. We thus evaluate in which ways forelimb posture was correlated with muscle leverage, and how such differences fit into a broader evolutionary context (i.e. transition from sprawling quadrupedalism to erect bipedalism and then shifting to graviportal quadrupedalism). Our analysis reveals major differences of muscle actions between the more sprawling and erect models at the shoulder joint. These differences are related not only to the articular surfaces but also to the orientation of the scapula, in which extension/flexion movements in Crocodylus (e.g. protraction of the humerus) correspond to elevation/depression in Mussaurus. Muscle action is highly influenced by limb posture, more so than morphology. Habitual quadrupedalism in Mussaurus is not supported by our analysis of joint range of motion, which indicates that glenohumeral protraction was severely restricted. Additionally, some active pronation of the manus may have been possible in Mussaurus, allowing semi-pronation by a rearranging of the whole antebrachium (not the radius against the ulna, as previously thought) via long-axis rotation at the elbow joint. However, the muscles acting around this joint to actively pronate it may have been too weak to drive or maintain such orientations as opposed to a neutral position in between pronation and supination. Regardless, the origin of quadrupedalism in Sauropoda is not only linked to manus pronation but also to multiple shifts of forelimb morphology, allowing greater flexion movements of the glenohumeral joint and a more columnar forelimb posture

The Term Structure of Interest Rates, the Expectations Hypothesis and International Financial Integration: Evidence from Asian Economies

The validity of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure is examined for a sample of Asian countries. A panel stationarity testing procedure is employed that addresses both structural breaks and cross-sectional dependence. Asian term structures are found to be stationary and supportive of the expectations hypothesis. Further analysis suggests that international financial integration is associated with interdependencies between domestic and foreign term structures insofar as cross-term structures based on differentials between domestic (foreign) short- and foreign (domestic) long-rates are also stationary.Correlation, Heterogeneous dynamic panels, term structure, mean reversion, panel stationarity test

ARE EU BUDGET DEFICITS STATIONARY?

In this paper, we test for the stationarity of European Union budget deficits over the period 1971 to 2006, using a panel of thirteen member countries. Our testing strategy addresses two key concerns with regard to unit root panel data testing, namely (i) the presence of cross-sectional dependence among the countries in the panel and (ii) the identification of potential structural breaks that might have occurred at different points in time. To address these concerns, we employ an AR-based bootstrap approach that allows us to test the null hypothesis of joint stationarity with endogenously determined structural breaks. In contrast to the existing literature, we find that the EU countries considered are characterised by fiscal stationarity over the full sample period irrespective of us allowing for structural breaks. This conclusion also holds when analysing sub-periods based on before and after the Maastricht treaty.Heterogeneous dynamic panels, fiscal sustainability, mean reversion, panel stationarity test.

Real Interest Parity: A Note on Asian Countries Using Panel Stationarity Tests

Existing panel data studies of real interest parity are either unable to identify which panel members are characterised by stationary real interest differentials, or are subject to size distortion resulting from the presence of structural breaks and cross-sectional dependencies. Using a panel stationarity testing procedure recently advocated by Hadri and Rao (2008) that allows for structural breaks and cross-sectional dependency, we are unable to reject the stationarity of Asian real interest rate differentials.Heterogeneous dynamic panels, real interest parity, mean reversion, panel stationarity test.