Does the Box-Cox transformation help in forecasting macroeconomic time series?

The paper investigates whether transforming a time series leads to an improvement in forecasting accuracy. The class of transformations that is considered is the Box-Cox power transformation, which applies to series measured on a ratio scale. We propose a nonparametric approach for estimating the optimal transformation parameter based on the frequency domain estimation of the prediction error variance, and also conduct an extensive recursive forecast experiment on a large set of seasonal monthly macroeconomic time series related to industrial production and retail turnover. In about one fifth of the series considered the Box-Cox transformation produces forecasts significantly better than the untransformed data at one-step-ahead horizon; in most of the cases the logarithmic transformation is the relevant one. As the forecast horizon increases, the evidence in favour of a transformation becomes less strong. Typically, the naïve predictor that just reverses the transformation leads to a lower mean square error than the optimal predictor at short forecast leads. We also discuss whether the preliminary in-sample frequency domain assessment conducted provides a reliable guidance which series should be transformed for improving significantly the predictive performance

Clinical prognostic factors for patients with anterior knee pain in physical therapy

Background: Although many authors have studied the prognostic factors that may contribute to anterior knee pain, synthesis of the existing evidence has not been performed. Purpose: The purpose of this systematic review is to summarize and examine existing prognostic models in patients with anterior knee pain that first present to physical therapists (primary care setting). Design: Systematic review Method: For this review Pubmed, Embase and Cinahl databases were searched and published papers that reported prognostic models for patients with anterior knee pain that first present to physical therapists (primary care setting) were selected. The authors extracted and summarized the univariate and multivariate predictors and evaluated which predictors consistently appeared to be relevant to pain, function, or recovery. Results: Nine studies were included. The quality scores of these s

Real-world Outcomes of Sequential Androgen-receptor Targeting Therapies with or Without Interposed Life-prolonging Drugs in Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer

_Background:_ Cross resistance between androgen-receptor targeting therapies(ARTs) (abiraterone acetate plus prednisone [ABI + P] or enzalutamide [ENZ]) fortreatment of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) may affectresponses to second ART (ART2). _Objective:_ To establish treatment duration and prostate-specific antigen (PSA)response of ART2 in real-world mCRPC patients treated with or without otherlife-prolonging drugs (LPDs; ie, docetaxel, cabazitaxel, or radium-223) betweenART1 and ART2. _Design, setting, and participants:_ Castration-resistant prostate cancer patients,diagnosed between 2010 and 2016 were retrospectively registered in Castra-tion-resistant Prostate Cancer Registry (CAPRI). Patients treated with both ARTswere clustered into two subgroups: ART1 > ART2 or ART1 > LPD > ART2

Genetic aspects and molecular testing in prostate cancer: a report from a Dutch multidisciplinary consensus meeting

Background: Germline and tumour genetic testing in prostate cancer (PCa) is becoming more broadly accepted, but testing indications and clinical consequences for carriers in each disease stage are not yet well defined.Objective: To determine the consensus of a Dutch multidisciplinary expert panel on the indication and application of germline and tumour genetic testing in PCa.Design, setting, and participants: The panel consisted of 39 specialists involved in PCa management. We used a modified Delphi method consisting of two voting rounds and a virtual consensus meeting.Outcome measurements and statistical analysis: Consensus was reached if >75% of the panellists chose the same option. Appropriateness was assessed by the RAND/UCLA appropriateness method.Results and limitations: Of the multiple-choice questions, 44% reached consensus. For men without PCa having a relevant family history (familial PCa/BRCA-related hered-itary cancer), follow-up by prostate-specific antigen was considered appropriate. For patients with low-risk localised PCa and a family history of PCa, active surveil-lance was considered appropriate, except in case of the patient being a BRCA2 germ -line pathogenic variant carrier. Germline and tumour genetic testing should not be done for nonmetastatic hormone-sensitive PCa in the absence of a relevant family history of cancer. Tumour genetic testing was deemed most appropriate for the identification of actionable variants, with uncertainty for germline testing. For tumour genetic testing in metastatic castration-resistant PCa, consensus was not reached for the timing and panel composition. The principal limitations are as fol-lows: (1) a number of topics discussed lack scientific evidence, and therefore the recommendations are partly opinion based, and (2) there was a small number of experts per discipline.Conclusions: The outcomes of this Dutch consensus meeting may provide further guidance on genetic counselling and molecular testing related to PCa.Patient summary: A group of Dutch specialists discussed the use of germline and tumour genetic testing in prostate cancer (PCa) patients, indication of these tests (which patients and when), and impact of these tests on the management and treatment of PCa.(c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of European Association of Urology. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons. org/licenses/by/4.0/).Experimentele farmacotherapi