Comparing weighted Markov chain and auto-regressive integrated moving average in the prediction of under-5 mortality annual closing rates in Nigeria

In developing countries, childhood mortality rates are not only affected by socioeconomic, demographic, and health variables, but also vary across regions. Correctly predicting childhood mortality rate trends can provide a clearer understanding for health policy formulation to reduce mortality. This paper describes and compares two prediction methods: Weighted Markov Chain Model (WMC) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) in order to establish which method can better predict the annual child mortality rate in Nigeria. The data for the study were Childhood Mortality Annual Closing Rates (CMACR) data for Nigeria from 1964-2017. The CMACR provides random values changing over time (annually), so we can analyze the mortality closing rate and predict the change range in the next state. Weighted Markov Chain (WMC), a method based on Markov theory, addresses the state and its transition procedures to describe a changing random time series. While the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is a generalization of an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model. The findings indicate that the ARIMA model predicts CMACR for Nigeria better than WMC. The WMC entered in a loop after two iterations, and we could not use it effectively to predict the future values of CMACR

The use of heavy metals load as an indicator of the suitability of the water and fish of Ibiekuma Stream for domestic and consumption purposes

The levels of Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb and Zn in the water and fish from Ibiekuma Stream, Ekpoma, Nigeria were determined at two locations (Upstream and Downstream) in order to ascertain their suitability for consumption and other domestic uses. Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometry was used to measure the metal levels. Seasonal (dry and wet seasons) levels were also determined. The results showed Zn mean levels were highest with 1.12 ± 0.51 mg/l in water and 45.5 ± 7.46 mg/kg in fish. Minimum levels were 0.005 ± 0.002 mg/l (Cd and Pb) in water and 0.70 ± 0.22 mg/kg (Cd) in fish. Pb was not detected in fish. Spatially, upstream location levels were generally higher than downstream levels for all the metals in both water and fish. Dry season levels were also generally higher for all samples and at both locations. The consumption of the fishes of the stream requires stringent precautionary measuresbecause of the high levels of Cr and Cu which exceeded limits in food fish and could therefore pose some health risks. It was also observed that all metal levels in water were within drinking water limitsand global background levels for surface fresh water. The implication of these findings is that the water of the stream could be used for drinking and other domestic purposes

Heavy metals concentrations in the offal, gill, muscle and liver of a freshwater mudfish (Parachanna obscura) from Ogba River, Benin city, Nigeria

This study assessed and monitored the concentrations of Cu, Mn, Zn, Cd, Cr, Ni and Pb in the gills, offal, muscle and liver of a commercially important mudfish (Parachanna obscura) from Ogba River, BeninCity, Nigeria between January and December, 2005. The same metals were also determined in the water of the river. The results revealed that the concentrations of all the metals in the tissues (offal, gills,muscle and liver) were higher than the concentrations of the metals in water and indicated bioaccumulation. The concentrations of all the metals in water were below WHO and FEPA recommended limits and suggested that the water of Ogba River was suitable for drinking, but theconcentrations of Cu, Mn, Cr, Ni and Pb in all fish tissues exceeded these limits and indicated that the fishes of Ogba River, as far as these metals were concerned, were unfit for human consumption.Consequently, close monitoring of metals pollution and the consumption of the fishes of Ogba River is recommended with a view to minimizing the risks to health of the population that depend on the river fortheir water and fish supply

Decision making autonomy and maternal healthcare utilization among Nigerian women

Background and Objectives: Low assess to ante-natal care (ANC) services continue to pose a major public health challenge leading to high maternal mortality rates in developing countries. Non-utilization of ANC services among about a quarter of Nigerian women of reproductive age remains a major concern in the actualization of Sustainable Development Goals. Considering the complexity of healthcare utilization in Nigeria, the relationship between a particular health care utilization pattern and women autonomy has not been fully examined. This study examines the patterns of women autonomy and their relationships with ANC utilization in Nigeria. Methods: This was a cross-sectional analysis of the 2013 nationally representative data from the Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS). Factor analysis/score were used to construct women autonomy index, while chi-square and logistic regression were used to establish the relationships between the response and exposure variables. Results: There is a strong relationship between women decision making autonomy status and ANC services among Nigeria women. The odds of utilizing ANC services among women with more decision making autonomy were significantly 3.79 higher than among women with low decision-making autonomy. The use of ANC increases as age, education and wealth status of respondents increase. Conclusions and Global Health Implications: These results indicate that women autonomy is undoubtedly a major determinant of ANC utilization in Nigeria

Study of Steelmaking Reactions of Blast Furnace Hot-Metal

Means of utilising low quality high phosphorus ores and coals is the focus of much research within the steelmaking industry due to the high cost and decreasing availability of premium quality raw materials. Practices such as double converter practice are used in some steel plants to drive HM phosphorus levels down to low levels, but even then costs and time constraints are associated with such practice. To tackle this issue, a HM dephosphorisation pre-treatment process was proposed by Tata Steel R&D featuring the refinement of desulphurised HM droplets. To determine the feasibility of dephosphorisation reaction occurring within the HM droplets as it descended down the reactor, kinetic experiments were conducted using a purpose built levitation melting furnace featuring electromagnetic coils for melting the sample. Experiments conducted included free fall and stationary levitation kinetic experiments where oxidising gas mixture and/or slag-making material was introduced into the reaction system and quenched samples were analysed for change in composition and surface morphology. Results indicated whilst no dephosphorisation took place within the short fall time (~0.32 seconds) or during the extended reaction time (60 seconds), liquid surface oxides formed as oxidation of carbon, silicon, manganese and iron occurred. Shifted focus onto analysing the composition and growth of the surface oxides with respect to parameters such as droplet size and gas phase oxygen content showed that such factors had limited effect on oxide growth and composition. Whilst lime was unable to flux into the liquid oxide, low liquidus basic synthetic slag was able to but with no change in HM phosphorus levels. HM silicon and manganese content were however significantly lowered in the presence of the basic slag indicating mass transfer of these elements from the metal to the slag. Whilst the significance of the experimental results is that the suggestion of extensive dephosphorisation occurring during the fall of desulphurised HM droplets within the pre-treatment process has been disproved, the study improves understanding of droplet steelmaking reactions as well as offering a new experimental technique not previously available to Tata Steel for investigating reactivity or surface properties of metal droplets

Heavy metal concentrations in Malapterurus electricus and Chrysichthys nigrodigitatus from Ogba River in Benin City, Nigeria

The concentrations of heavy metals in two tropical fish species (Malapterurus electricus and Chrysichthys nigrodigitatus) from Ogba river in Benin City, Nigeria, were investigated between November 2002 and October 2003 in order to ascertain the pollution status of the river. The results showed varying levels of accumulation of Cu, Mn, Zn, Pb, Cr, Ni, and Cd in the fishes. The levels of Cu,Mn, Cr and Ni, in both fishes were higher than the WHO and FEPA recommended maximum allowable standards in food fish, while those of Zn, Pb and Cd were lower than the standards. The results suggest that the Ogba river system is contaminated with heavy metals and the consumption of fishes of the river could pose health hazards to man. Metal levels in water in Ogba River are lower than the recommended limiting standards and could be considered safe for drinkin

Water pollution: A review of microbial quality and health concerns of water, sediment and fish in the aquatic ecosystem

This paper reviewed aquatic ecosystem pollution with particular reference to pathogens in water, sediment and fish and their human health concerns. It highlighted the historical perspective of the relationship between microbes and humans regarding the “ranging war” between them, arising fromthe reckless exploitation of the biosphere by humans and the resultant “revolt” by microbes in the form of various pathogenic diseases that now plague mankind. Also highlighted are pathogens and diseases in both wild and cultured fish, citing reported cases in Nigeria to include Samonella, Shigella and Leptospira spp., Proteus vulgaris, Escherichia coli, Citrobacter diversus, Pseudomonas florescens, Aeromonas hydrophilla, Staphylococus aureus, Klebsiella aerogenes, Edwardsiella tarda and Flexibacter columnaris. Some human diseases contacted from contaminated/infected fish and fisheries’ products that have been reported in Nigeria were reported to include: food poisoning and gastroenteritis, diarrhea, bacillary dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid, clonorchiasis and superficialwound infections and ulcers. In conclusion, the paper reviewed the modes of infection of water related and fish-borne diseases of human health concerns and recommended ways to ameliorate their infection and spread

Evaluating socio-cultural barriers to antenatal care utilization among reproductive age women in Wushishi and Zungeru communities in Niger State, Nigeria: A logistic regression approach

More than 33% of Nigerian pregnant women do not use the Antenatal Care service during pregnancy. In 2015, for instance, World Health Organization (WHO) revealed that only 61% of Nigerian pregnant women had attended ANC at least once during their pregnancy period. Only 51% of these women met the WHO standard of a minimum of 4 visits. This ANC rate is, without doubt, lower than the WHO African region average of 77%. The situation in Wushishi and Zungeru communities of Niger State may not be different. Despite the number of health facilities available in these communities, some women of childbearing age do not access antenatal care. Most times, many of them lose their lives during delivery at home, some end up with complications or lose their babies at births. This situation raised concern why pregnant women do not attend antenatal care in health facilities around them? This paper examined the socio-cultural impediments to accessing antenatal care services among reproductive-aged women in Wushishi and Zungeru Communities of Niger State. We used a Multivariate Logistic Analysis. A total of 150 subjects were involved in this study comprising 83 from Zungeru and 67 from Wushishi. The questionnaire used for data collection was a structured consist of 17 items. The results indicated that ethnicity and preference for traditional birth attendant are major influences to accessing ANC in these communities

AN ANALYSES OF GOAL 14 (LIFE BELOW WATER/TARGETS) OF THE UNITED NATIONS’ SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS 2019 TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARINE/ BLUE ECONOMY TOWARDS THE ATTAINMENT OF THE SAID GOAL, EXISTING LEGAL FRAMEWORK AND POTENTIAL THREATS IN NIGERIA .....

The paper is an analyses of goal 14 (life below water/targets) of the United Nations’ sustainable development goals 2019 to the development of marine/blue economy towards the attainment of the said goal, existing legal framework and potential threats in Nigeria and the global environment. The threats examined in this paper include: the threat of ocean acidification, the threat of ocean dead zones, the threat of overfishing and the threat of ocean waste in the oceans. The paper adopts an admixture of the doctrinal, historical, comparative, the law and development and empirical approaches. The paper ends with a conclusion and a set of recommendations. KEYWORDS: Analyses, Goal 14, life below Water, Targets, United Nations, Sustainable Development, Goals 2019, Development, Marine/Blue Economy, Attainment, Existing, Legal Framework, Potential, Threats, Nigeria, Global Environment. DOI: 10.7176/JLPG/96-16 Publication date: April 30th 2020

Investigating Multiple Overlaps in the Determinants of Risk Factors of Anaemia, Malaria, and Malnutrition, and their Multimorbidity, among Children aged 6 to 59 months in Nigeria

Background: In the last ten years multimorbidity in children under the age of five years has becoming an emerging health issue in developing countries. The absence of a proper understanding of the causes, risk factors, and prevention of these new health disorders (multimorbidity) in children is a significant cause for concern, if the sustainable development goal 3 of ensuring healthy lives and the promotion of well-being for all especially in the associated aim of ending preventable deaths of new-borns and children must be achieved by 2030. In the past, most studies conducted in Nigeria and some other least developed nations of the world focused on these multiple diseases by employing conventional analytical techniques to examine them separately as distinct disease entities. But the study of multimorbidity of anaemia, malaria, and malnutrition has not been done, especially in children. Aim: This study aims to investigate the multiple overlaps in the impact of individual and contextual variables on the prevalence of anaemia, malaria, malnutrition, and their multimorbidity among children aged 6 to 59 months in Nigeria. Methods: The study used two nationally representative cross-sectional surveys, the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey and the 2018 National Human Development Report. A series of multilevel mixed effect ordered logistic regression models were used to investigate the associations between child/parent/household variables (at level 1), community-related variables (at level 2) and area-related variables (at level 3), and the multimorbidity outcome (no disease, one disease only, two or more diseases). The interaction effects between child's sex, age, and household wealth quintiles and the outcome while accounting for some covariates in the model were also investigated. Results: 48.3% (4,917/10,184) of the sample of children aged 6-59 months cohabit with two or more of the disease outcomes. Child's sex, age, maternal education, mother’s anaemia status. household wealth quintiles, the proportion of community wealth status, states with high human development index, region, and place of residence, were among the significant predictors of MAMM (p<0.05). There was a significant interaction effect between a child's age and wealth status when some other covariates were accounted for. Conclusions: The prevalence of MAMM observed in the sample is large, with almost half of the children living with two or more of the diseases at the time of the survey and several potentially modifiable risk factors have been identified. If suitable actions are not urgently taken, Nigeria’s ability to actualise the SDG 3 will be in grave danger. Therefore, possible actions to ameliorate this problem include developing and implementing a suitable policy that will pave the way for integrated care models to be developed