Risk models and scores for type 2 diabetes: Systematic review

This article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 3.0) licence that allows reuse subject only to the use being non-commercial and to the article being fully attributed (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0).Objective - To evaluate current risk models and scores for type 2 diabetes and inform selection and implementation of these in practice. Design - Systematic review using standard (quantitative) and realist (mainly qualitative) methodology. Inclusion - criteria Papers in any language describing the development or external validation, or both, of models and scores to predict the risk of an adult developing type 2 diabetes. Data sources - Medline, PreMedline, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched. Included studies were citation tracked in Google Scholar to identify follow-on studies of usability or impact. Data extraction - Data were extracted on statistical properties of models, details of internal or external validation, and use of risk scores beyond the studies that developed them. Quantitative data were tabulated to compare model components and statistical properties. Qualitative data were analysed thematically to identify mechanisms by which use of the risk model or score might improve patient outcomes. Results - 8864 titles were scanned, 115 full text papers considered, and 43 papers included in the final sample. These described the prospective development or validation, or both, of 145 risk prediction models and scores, 94 of which were studied in detail here. They had been tested on 6.88 million participants followed for up to 28 years. Heterogeneity of primary studies precluded meta-analysis. Some but not all risk models or scores had robust statistical properties (for example, good discrimination and calibration) and had been externally validated on a different population. Genetic markers added nothing to models over clinical and sociodemographic factors. Most authors described their score as “simple” or “easily implemented,” although few were specific about the intended users and under what circumstances. Ten mechanisms were identified by which measuring diabetes risk might improve outcomes. Follow-on studies that applied a risk score as part of an intervention aimed at reducing actual risk in people were sparse. Conclusion - Much work has been done to develop diabetes risk models and scores, but most are rarely used because they require tests not routinely available or they were developed without a specific user or clear use in mind. Encouragingly, recent research has begun to tackle usability and the impact of diabetes risk scores. Two promising areas for further research are interventions that prompt lay people to check their own diabetes risk and use of risk scores on population datasets to identify high risk “hotspots” for targeted public health interventions.Tower Hamlets, Newham, and City and Hackney primary care trusts and National Institute of Health Research

Extremism propagation in social networks with hubs

One aspect of opinion change that has been of academic interest is the impact of people with extreme opinions (extremists) on opinion dynamics. An agent-based model has been used to study the role of small-world social network topologies on general opinion change in the presence of extremists. It has been found that opinion convergence to a single extreme occurs only when the average number of network connections for each individual is extremely high. Here, we extend the model to examine the effect of positively skewed degree distributions, in addition to small-world structures, on the types of opinion convergence that occur in the presence of extremists. We also examine what happens when extremist opinions are located on the well-connected nodes (hubs) created by the positively skewed distribution. We find that a positively skewed network topology encourages opinion convergence on a single extreme under a wider range of conditions than topologies whose degree distributions were not skewed. The importance of social position for social influence is highlighted by the result that, when positive extremists are placed on hubs, all population convergence is to the positive extreme even when there are twice as many negative extremists. Thus, our results have shown the importance of considering a positively skewed degree distribution, and in particular network hubs and social position, when examining extremist transmission

Primordia initiation of mushroom (Agaricus bisporus) strains on axenic casing materials

The mushroom (Agaricus bisporus) has a requirement for a ‘‘casing layer’’ that has specific physical, chemical and microbiological properties which stimulate and promote the initiation of primordia. Some of these primordia then may develop further into sporophores, involving differentiation of tissue. Wild and commercial strains of A. bisporus were cultured in axenic and nonaxenic microcosms, using a rye grain substrate covered by a range of organic and inorganic casing materials. In axenic culture, A. bisporus (commercial strain A15) was capable of producing primordia and mature sporophores on charcoal (wood and activated), anthracite coal, lignite and zeolite, but not on bark, coir, peat, rockwool, silica or vermiculite. Of six strains tested, only the developmental variant mutant, B430, produced rudimentary primordia on axenic peat-based casing material. However, none of these rudimentary primordia developed differentiated tissues or beyond 4 mm diameter, either on axenic casing material in the microcosms or in larger-scale culture. In larger-scale, nonaxenic culture, strain B430 produced severely malformed but mature sporophores in similar numbers to those of other strains. Typically, 3–6% of primordia developed into mature sporophores, but significant differences in this proportion, as well as in the numbers of primordia produced, were recorded between 12 A. bisporus strains

Symptom relief with moderate dose chemotherapy (mitomycin-C, vinblastine and cisplatin) in advanced non-small cell lung cancer.

Twenty-four symptomatic patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) were treated with cisplatin-based chemotherapy (mitomycin-C 8 mg m-2 q 6 weeks, vinblastine 6 mg m-2 q 3 weeks, cisplatin 50 mg m-2 q 3 weeks). Patients were assessed for symptom relief as well as for objective response. Although only five patients achieved an objective response (21%), 18 patients (75%) reported a complete disappearance or good improvement in at least one of their tumour-related symptoms. The overall symptomatic response rate was 67% with 16 patients feeling better or much better on treatment. The toxicity of treatment (primarily myelosuppression and nausea and vomiting) was mild and hair loss was minimal. The high incidence of symptomatic relief seen in this study, even in the absence of objective response, suggests that moderate dose chemotherapy may have a role in the palliation of NSCLC

Refining pathological evaluation of neoadjuvant therapy for adenocarcinoma of the esophagus

AIM: To assess tumour regression grade (TRG) and lymph node downstaging to help define patients who benefit from neoadjuvant chemotherapy.METHODS: Two hundred and eighteen consecutive patients with adenocarcinoma of the esophagus or gastro-esophageal junction treated with surgery alone or neoadjuvant chemotherapy and surgery between 2005 and 2011 at a single institution were reviewed. Triplet neoadjuvant chemotherapy consisting of platinum, fluoropyrimidine and anthracycline was considered for operable patients (World Health Organization performance status ? 2) with clinical stage T2-4 N0-1. Response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) was assessed using TRG, as described by Mandard et al. In addition lymph node downstaging was also assessed. Lymph node downstaging was defined by cN1 at diagnosis: assessed radiologically (computed tomography, positron emission tomography, endoscopic ultrasonography), then pathologically recorded as N0 after surgery; ypN0 if NAC given prior to surgery, or pN0 if surgery alone. Patients were followed up for 5 years post surgery. Recurrence was defined radiologically, with or without pathological confirmation. An association was examined between t TRG and lymph node downstaging with disease free survival (DFS) and a comprehensive range of clinicopathological characteristics.RESULTS: Two hundred and eighteen patients underwent esophageal resection during the study interval with a mean follow up of 3 years (median follow up: 2.552, 95%CI: 2.022-3.081). There was a 1.8% (n = 4) inpatient mortality rate. One hundred and thirty-six (62.4%) patients received NAC, with 74.3% (n = 101) of patients demonstrating some signs of pathological tumour regression (TRG 1-4) and 5.9% (n = 8) having a complete pathological response. Forty four point one percent (n = 60) had downstaging of their nodal disease (cN1 to ypN0), compared to only 15.9% (n = 13) that underwent surgery alone (pre-operatively overstaged: cN1 to pN0), (P < 0.0001). Response to NAC was associated with significantly increased DFS (mean DFS; TRG 1-2: 5.1 years, 95%CI: 4.6-5.6 vs TRG 3-5: 2.8 years, 95%CI: 2.2-3.3, P < 0.0001). Nodal down-staging conferred a significant DFS advantage for those patients with a poor primary tumour response to NAC (median DFS; TRG 3-5 and nodal down-staging: 5.533 years, 95%CI: 3.558-7.531 vs TRG 3-5 and no nodal down-staging: 1.114 years, 95%CI: 0.961-1.267, P < 0.0001).CONCLUSION: Response to NAC in the primary tumour and in the lymph nodes are both independently associated with improved DFS

When, why and how tumour clonal diversity predicts survival

The utility of intratumour heterogeneity as a prognostic biomarker is the subject of ongoing clinical investigation. However, the relationship between this marker and its clinical impact is mediated by an evolutionary process that is not well understood. Here, we employ a spatial computational model of tumour evolution to assess when, why and how intratumour heterogeneity can be used to forecast tumour growth rate and progression‐free survival. We identify three conditions that can lead to a positive correlation between clonal diversity and subsequent growth rate: diversity is measured early in tumour development; selective sweeps are rare; and/or tumours vary in the rate at which they acquire driver mutations. Opposite conditions typically lead to negative correlation. In cohorts of tumours with diverse evolutionary parameters, we find that clonal diversity is a reliable predictor of both growth rate and progression‐free survival. We thus offer explanations—grounded in evolutionary theory—for empirical findings in various cancers, including survival analyses reported in the recent TRACERx Renal study of clear‐cell renal cell carcinoma. Our work informs the search for new prognostic biomarkers and contributes to the development of predictive oncology

The Cam-type Deformity of the Proximal Femur Arises in Childhood in Response to Vigorous Sporting Activity

Background: The prevalence of a cam-type deformity in athletes and its association with vigorous sports activities during and after the growth period is unknown. Questions/purposes: We therefore compared the prevalence and occurrence of a cam-type deformity by MRI in athletes during childhood and adolescence with an age-matched control group. Patients and Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 72 hips in 37 male basketball players with a mean age of 17.6years (range, 9-25years) and 76 asymptomatic hips of 38 age-matched volunteers who had not participated in sporting activities at a high level. Results: Eleven (15%) of the 72 hips in the athletes were painful and had positive anterior impingement tests on physical examination. Internal rotation of the hip averaged 30.1° (range, 15°-45°) in the control group compared with only 18.9° (range, 0°-45°) in the athletes. The maximum value of the alpha angle throughout the anterosuperior head segment was larger in the athletes (average, 60.5°±9°), compared with the control group (47.4°±4°). These differences became more pronounced after closure of the capital growth plate. Overall, the athletes had a 10-fold increased likelihood of having an alpha angle greater than 55° at least at one measurement position. Conclusions: Our observations suggest a high intensity of sports activity during adolescence is associated with a substantial increase in the risk of cam-type impingement. These patients also may be at increased risk of subsequent development of secondary coxarthrosis. Level of Evidence: Level II, diagnostic study. See the Guidelines for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidenc