Modelling the Evolution of Ice-rich Permafrost Landscapes in Response to a Warming Climate

Permafrost is a component of Earth's cryosphere which is of importance for ecosystems and infrastructure in the Arctic, and plays a key role in the global carbon cycle. Global climate warming which is particularly pronounced in polar regions constitutes a major disturbance to permafrost environments which rely on a vulnerable thermal equilibrium between the atmosphere and the land surface. Large-scale climate models reveal high uncertainties in projections of how much permafrost would thaw in response to climate warming scenarios, since they do not represent key complexities of permafrost environments such as small-scale landscape heterogeneities and feedbacks through lateral transport processes. In particular, large-scale models do not take into account thaw processes in ice-rich permafrost which cause widespread landscape change referred to as thermokarst. For this thesis, I have developed a numerical model to investigate thaw processes in ice-rich permafrost landscapes, and I have used it to obtain improved projections of how much permafrost would thaw in response to climate warming. The focus of my research was on cold, ice- and carbon-rich permafrost deposits in the northeast Siberian Arctic, and on landscapes characterized by ice-wedge polygons. In three closely interrelated research articles I have demonstrated that the novel modelling approach of laterally coupled ``tiles'' can be used to realistically simulate the evolution of ice-rich permafrost landscapes. The numerical simulations have revealed that small-scale lateral transport of heat, water, snow, and sediment crucially affect the dynamics of permafrost landscapes and how much permafrost would thaw under climate warming scenarios. My research revealed that substantially more permafrost carbon is affected by thaw in numerical simulations which take into account thermokarst processes, than in simulations which lack a representation of excess ice. These results suggest that conventional large-scale models used for future climate projections might considerably underestimate permafrost thaw and associated carbon-cycle feedbacks. Overall, the research presented in this thesis constitutes a major progress towards the realistic assessment of ice-rich permafrost landscape dynamics using numerical models, and demonstrates the high potential of tile-based modelling paradigms for the computationally efficient representation of subgrid-scale heterogeneity and lateral processes in large-scale climate models

Sustainability, collapse and oscillations in a simple World-Earth model

The Anthropocene is characterized by close interdependencies between the natural Earth system and the global human society, posing novel challenges to model development. Here we present a conceptual model describing the long-term co-evolution of natural and socio-economic subsystems of Earth. While the climate is represented via a global carbon cycle, we use economic concepts to model socio-metabolic flows of biomass and fossil fuels between nature and society. A well-being-dependent parametrization of fertility and mortality governs human population dynamics. Our analysis focuses on assessing possible asymptotic states of the Earth system for a qualitative understanding of its complex dynamics rather than quantitative predictions. Low dimension and simple equations enable a parameter-space analysis allowing us to identify preconditions of several asymptotic states and hence fates of humanity and planet. These include a sustainable co-evolution of nature and society, a global collapse and everlasting oscillations. We consider different scenarios corresponding to different socio-cultural stages of human history. The necessity of accounting for the 'human factor' in Earth system models is highlighted by the finding that carbon stocks during the past centuries evolved opposing to what would 'naturally' be expected on a planet without humans. The intensity of biomass use and the contribution of ecosystem services to human well-being are found to be crucial determinants of the asymptotic state in a (pre-industrial) biomass-only scenario without capital accumulation. The capitalistic, fossil-based scenario reveals that trajectories with fundamentally different asymptotic states might still be almost indistinguishable during even a centuries-long transient phase. Given current human population levels, our study also supports the claim that besides reducing the global demand for energy, only the extensive use of renewable energies may pave the way into a sustainable future

Sustainability, collapse and oscillations in a simple World-Earth model

The Anthropocene is characterized by close interdependencies between the natural Earth system and the global human society, posing novel challenges to model development. Here we present a conceptual model describing the long-term co-evolution of natural and socio-economic subsystems of Earth. While the climate is represented via a global carbon cycle, we use economic concepts to model socio-metabolic flows of biomass and fossil fuels between nature and society. A well-being-dependent parametrization of fertility and mortality governs human population dynamics. Our analysis focuses on assessing possible asymptotic states of the Earth system for a qualitative understanding of its complex dynamics rather than quantitative predictions. Low dimension and simple equations enable a parameter-space analysis allowing us to identify preconditions of several asymptotic states and hence fates of humanity and planet. These include a sustainable co-evolution of nature and society, a global collapse and everlasting oscillations. We consider different scenarios corresponding to different socio-cultural stages of human history. The necessity of accounting for the 'human factor' in Earth system models is highlighted by the finding that carbon stocks during the past centuries evolved opposing to what would 'naturally' be expected on a planet without humans. The intensity of biomass use and the contribution of ecosystem services to human well-being are found to be crucial determinants of the asymptotic state in a (pre-industrial) biomass-only scenario without capital accumulation. The capitalistic, fossil-based scenario reveals that trajectories with fundamentally different asymptotic states might still be almost indistinguishable during even a centuries-long transient phase. Given current human population levels, our study also supports the claim that besides reducing the global demand for energy, only the extensive use of renewable energies may pave the way into a sustainable future

Deciphering the imprint of topology on nonlinear dynamical network stability

Coupled oscillator networks show complex interrelations between topological characteristics of the network and the nonlinear stability of single nodes with respect to large but realistic perturbations. We extend previous results on these relations by incorporating sampling-based measures of the transient behaviour of the system, its survivability, as well as its asymptotic behaviour, its basin stability. By combining basin stability and survivability we uncover novel, previously unknown asymptotic states with solitary, desynchronized oscillators which are rotating with a frequency different from their natural one. They occur almost exclusively after perturbations at nodes with specific topological properties. More generally we confirm and significantly refine the results on the distinguished role tree-shaped appendices play for nonlinear stability. We find a topological classification scheme for nodes located in such appendices, that exactly separates them according to their stability properties, thus establishing a strong link between topology and dynamics. Hence, the results can be used for the identification of vulnerable nodes in power grids or other coupled oscillator networks. From this classification we can derive general design principles for resilient power grids. We find that striving for homogeneous network topologies facilitates a better performance in terms of nonlinear dynamical network stability. While the employed second-order Kuramoto-like model is parametrised to be representative for power grids, we expect these insights to transfer to other critical infrastructure systems or complex network dynamics appearing in various other fields.Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung https://doi.org/10.13039/501100002347Peer Reviewe

Towards representing thermokarst processes in land surface models

Large-scale Earth system and land surface models often lack an adequate representation of subgrid-scale processes in permafrost landscapes. Small-scale processes such as thermokarst formation might, however, considerably impact the energy and carbon budgets in way which is not resolved within large-scale models. Since a spatially high-resolved simulation of such processes is not feasible, novel techniques for up-scaling subgrid processes are demanded. Within this work a one-dimensional model of the ground thermal regime of land surfaces, CryoGrid 3, is employed to conceptually represent small-scale features of permafrost landscapes, particularly those related to thermokarst. For example, the model has been shown to adequately describe the degradation of permafrost underneath waterbodies in a warming climate. Using tiling approaches such point-wise realizations can be up-scaled in a statistical way in order to represent larger land surface units. The model development is closely linked to field campaigns to the Lena River Delta in Siberia which offers very diverse land surface features such as polygonal tundra and thermos-erosional valleys. These features are related to the region’s diverse soil stratigraphies, in particular the occurrence of ice-rich ground. Combining field measurements with modelling ultimately allows an improvement in the qualitative and quantitative understanding of the typical geomorphological processes in permafrost landscapes and their representation in large-scale models

Investigating the thermal state of permafrost with Bayesian inverse modeling of heat transfer

Long-term measurements of permafrost temperatures do not provide a complete picture of the Arctic subsurface thermal regime. Regions with warmer permafrost often show little to no long-term change in ground temperature due to the uptake and release of latent heat during freezing and thawing. Thus, regions where the least warming is observed may also be the most vulnerable to permafrost degradation. Since direct measurements of ice and liquid water contents in the permafrost layer are not widely available, thermal modeling of the subsurface plays a crucial role in understanding how permafrost responds to changes in the local energy balance. In this work, we first analyze trends in observed air and permafrost temperatures at four sites within the continuous permafrost zone, where we find substantial variation in the apparent relationship between long-term changes in permafrost temperatures (0.02–0.16 K yr−1) and air temperature (0.09–0.11 K yr−1). We then apply recently developed Bayesian inversion methods to link observed changes in borehole temperatures to unobserved changes in latent heat and active layer thickness using a transient model of heat conduction with phase change. Our results suggest that the degree to which recent warming trends correlate with permafrost thaw depends strongly on both soil freezing characteristics and historical climatology. At the warmest site, a 9 m borehole near Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, modeled active layer thickness increases by an average of 13 ± 1 cm K−1 rise in mean annual ground temperature. In stark contrast, modeled rates of thaw at one of the colder sites, a borehole on Samoylov Island in the Lena River delta, appear far less sensitive to temperature change, with a negligible effect of 1 ± 1 cm K−1. Although our study is limited to just four sites, the results urge caution in the interpretation and comparison of warming trends in Arctic boreholes, indicating significant uncertainty in their implications for the current and future thermal state of permafrost.</p

Brief communication: Unravelling the composition and microstructure of a permafrost core using X-ray computed tomography

The microstructure of permafrost ground contains clues to its formation and hence its preconditioning to future change. We applied X-ray computed microtomography (CT) to obtain high-resolution data (Δx=50 µm) of the composition of a 164 cm long permafrost core drilled in a Yedoma upland in north-eastern Siberia. The CT analysis allowed the microstructures to be directly mapped and volumetric contents of excess ice, gas inclusions, and two distinct sediment types to be quantified. Using laboratory measurements of coarsely resolved core samples, we statistically estimated the composition of the sediment types and used it to indirectly quantify volumetric contents of pore ice, organic matter, and mineral material along the core. We conclude that CT is a promising method for obtaining physical properties of permafrost cores which opens novel research potentials

The impact of lateral heat and water fluxes from thermokarst lakes on tundra landscape dynamics and permafrost degradation

Projected future warming of the Arctic will result in pronounced degradation of permafrost and thereby trigger large-scale landscape and ecosystem changes. In this context, the formation and expansion of thermokarst lakes play a key role as thermokarst dynamics represent a mechanism for abrupt degradation of permafrost soils. Using the process-based model CryoGrid-3 coupled to a model description of lake dynamics (FLake), we explore how the thermal and hydrological state of different permafrost landscapes is affected by an explicit consideration of the interaction between lakes and surrounding permafrost environments. Hereby we especially investigate the role of lateral fluxes in affecting the landscape heat and water budgets

First Quantification of the Permafrost Heat Sink in the Earth's Climate System

Due to an imbalance between incoming and outgoing radiation at the top of the atmosphere, excess heat has accumulated in Earth's climate system in recent decades, driving global warming and climatic changes. To date, it has not been quantified how much of this excess heat is used to melt ground ice in permafrost. Here, we diagnose changes in sensible and latent ground heat contents in the northern terrestrial permafrost region from ensemble-simulations of a tailored land surface model. We find that between 1980 and 2018, about 3.9^+1.4_-1.6 ZJ of heat, of which 1.7_-1.4^+1.3 ZJ (44%) were used to melt ground ice, were absorbed by permafrost. Our estimate, which does not yet account for the potentially increased heat uptake due to thermokarst processes in ice-rich terrain, suggests that permafrost is a persistent heat sink comparable in magnitude to other components of the cryosphere and must be explicitly considered when assessing Earth's energy imbalance.Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347Peer Reviewe