Parameter Instability and Forecasting Performance. A Monte Carlo Study

This paper uses Monte Carlo techniques to assess the loss in terms of forecast accuracy which is incurred when the true DGP exhibits parameter instability which is either overlooked or incorrectly modelled. We find that the loss is considerable when a FCM is estimated instead of the true TVCM, this loss being an increasing function of the degree of persistence and of the variance of the process driving the slope coefficient. A loss is also incurred when a TVCM different from the correct one is specified, the resulting forecasts being even less accurate than those of a FCM. However, the loss can be minimised by selecting a TVCM which, although incorrect, nests the true one, more specifically an AR(1) model with a constant. Finally, there is hardly any loss resulting from using a TVCM when the underlying DGP is characterised by fixed coefficients.Fixed coefficient model, Time varying parameter models, Forecasting

Slip avalanches in crystal plasticity: scaling of the avalanche cutoff

Plastic deformation of crystals proceeds through a sequence of intermittent slip avalanches with scale-free (power-law) size distribution. On macroscopic scales, however, plastic flow is known to be smooth and homogeneous. In the present letter we use a recently proposed continuum model of slip avalanches to systematically investigate the nature of the cut-off which truncates scale-free behavior at large avalanche sizes. The dependence of the cut-off on system size, geometry, and driving mode, but also on intrinsic parameters such as the strain hardening rate is established. Implications for the observability of avalanche behavior in microscopic and macroscopic samples are discussed.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

Vulnerable Users’ Perceptions of Transport Technologies

As the global population continues to grow, age and urbanize, it is vital to provide accessible transport so that neither ageing nor disability constitute barriers to social inclusion. While technology can enhance urban access, there is a need to study the ways by which transport technologies - real-time information, pedestrian navigation, surveillance, and road pricing - could be more effectively adopted by users. The reason for this is that some people, and particularly vulnerable populations, are still likely to reluctantly use (or even avoid using) technologies perceived as 'unknown' and 'complicated'. Based on evidence from British and Swedish case studies on older people's perceptions of the aforementioned transport technologies, as well as on a Swedish case study of visually impaired people's perceptions, this article makes the case that technology is only one tool in a complex socio-technical system, and one which brings challenges. The authors also suggest that although vulnerable populations are not homogeneous when expressing attitudes towards transport technologies, their assessment criteria tend to be 'pro-social' as they usually consider that the societal benefits outweigh the personal benefits. Emphasising aspects linked to the technologies' pro-social potential or relevance to the individual user could increase acceptance

The paradox of public acceptance of bike sharing in Gothenburg

Bike sharing is one of the most promising urban planning interventions to facilitate an all-necessary transition towards a more sustainable transport paradigm. Regardless of the fact that hundreds of schemes run in more than 50 countries worldwide, bike sharing is still moderately investigated by research. This paper reports on a primarily quantitative study of 558 responses that was set to frame attitudes reflecting public acceptance towards the rapidly expanding bike-sharing scheme in Gothenburg (Styr & Ställ), in an attempt to identify the ‘formula for success’. The respondents generally believed that Styr & Ställ is a pro-environmental, inexpensive and healthy transport mode, which complements the city’s public transport services and promotes a more human-friendly identity for Gothenburg. Even the respondents that self-reported a small (or no) likelihood to use bike sharing were positive towards the scheme. This means that they recognise that bike sharing has a significant pro-social potential and is not a system favouring a particular road-user segment over others that might not be interested or able to use it. The fact that the majority of the respondents do not Bike sharing is one of the most promising urban planning interventions to facilitate an all-necessary transition towards a more sustainable transport paradigm. Regardless of the fact that hundreds of schemes run in more than 50 countries worldwide, bike sharing is still moderately investigated by research. This paper reports on a primarily quantitative study of 558 responses that was set to frame attitudes reflecting public acceptance towards the rapidly expanding bike-sharing scheme in Gothenburg (Styr & Ställ), in an attempt to identify the ‘formula for success’. The respondents generally believed that Styr & Ställ is a pro-environmental, inexpensive and healthy transport mode, which complements the city’s public transport services and promotes a more human-friendly identity for Gothenburg. Even the respondents that self-reported a small (or no) likelihood to use bike sharing were positive towards the scheme. This means that they recognise that bike sharing has a significant pro-social potential and is not a system favouring a particular road-user segment over others that might not be interested or able to use it. The fact that the majority of the respondents do not use the scheme and yet its popularity is still vast indicates that there is much potential for more use in real terms

Scaling laws for shaking table testing of reinforced concrete tunnels accounting for post-cracking lining response

This paper proposes a new set of scaling laws for the study of the post-cracking behaviour of lightly reinforced concrete tunnel linings during 1g shaking table testing. The post-cracking behaviour scaling laws are formulated using two non-dimensional parameters: the brittleness number s, which governs the fracturing phenomenon for unreinforced concrete elements and , which plays a primary role for the stability of the process of concrete fracture and steel plastic flow in reinforced concrete elements. The proposed laws allow for the development of an “adequate” experimental model and are validated using numerical analyses of a reinforced tunnel in rock, in both prototype and 1:30 model scale. The adopted experimental set-up is inspired by an existing 1g physical testing campaign on the seismic response of a concrete tunnel in rock and the postulated laws are shown to grant satisfactory similitude between the cracking behaviour of the model and prototype tunnel under two examined earthquake records. The potential of using the proposed laws in 1g tests for Class A predictions of evolving crack patterns in reinforced concrete tunnels is highlighted. The proposed laws are examined under three possible boundary conditions, indicating that both rigid and laminar boxes can still change the behaviour significantly compared to an envisaged free field boundary model. The analysis shows though that for larger soil to lining stiffness ratios, boundary artefacts could be greatly reduced. The present study provides useful recommendations for future 1g tests that did not exist to date, while the proposed scaling laws allow for versatility in the design of novel tunnel lining model test materials

Effect of trailing edge shape on the separated flow characteristics around an airfoil at low Reynolds number: A numerical study

Direct numerical simulations of the flow field around a NACA 0012 airfoil at Reynolds number 50 000 and angle of attack 5° with 3 different trailing edge shapes (straight, blunt, and serrated) have been performed. Both time-averaged flow characteristics and the most dominant flow structures and their frequencies are investigated using the dynamic mode decomposition method. It is shown that for the straight trailing edge airfoil, this method can capture the fundamental as well as the subharmonic of the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability that develops naturally in the separating shear layer. The fundamental frequency matches well with relevant data in the literature. The blunt trailing edge results in periodic vortex shedding, with frequency close to the subharmonic of the natural shear layer frequency. The shedding, resulting from a global instability, has an upstream effect and forces the separating shear layer. Due to forcing, the shear layer frequency locks onto the shedding frequency while the natural frequency (and its subharmonic) is suppressed. The presence of serrations in the trailing edge creates a spanwise pressure gradient, which is responsible for the development of a secondary flow pattern in the spanwise direction. This pattern affects the mean flow in the near wake. It can explain an unexpected observation, namely, that the velocity deficit downstream of a trough is smaller than the deficit after a protrusion. Furthermore, the insertion of serrations attenuates the energy of vortex shedding by de-correlating the spanwise coherence of the vortices. This results in weaker forcing of the separating shear layer, and both the subharmonics of the natural frequency and the shedding frequency appear in the spectra

Performance of Optical Structural Vibration Monitoring Systems in Experimental Modal Analysis

Image-based optical vibration measurement is an attractive alternative to the conventional measurement of structural dynamics predominantly relying on accelerometry. Although various optical vibration monitoring systems are now readily available, their performance is currently not well defined, especially in the context of experimental modal analysis. To this end, this study provides some of the first evidence of the capability of optical vibration monitoring systems in modal identification using input–output measurements. A comparative study is conducted on a scaled model of a 3D building frame set in a laboratory environment. The dynamic response of the model to an impulse excitation from an instrumented hammer, and an initial displacement, is measured by means of five optical motion capture systems. These include commercial and open-source systems based on laser Doppler velocimetry, fiducial markers and marker-less pattern recognition. The performance of these systems is analysed against the data obtained with a set of high-precision accelerometers. It is shown that the modal parameters identified from each system are not always equivalent, and that each system has limitations inherent to its design. Informed by these findings, a guidance for the deployment of the considered optical motion capture systems is given, aiding in their choice and implementation for structural vibration monitoring

Information Content of Spontaneous Symmetry Breaking

We propose a measure of order in the context of nonequilibrium field theory and argue that this measure, which we call relative configurational entropy (RCE), may be used to quantify the emergence of coherent low-entropy configurations, such as time-dependent or time-independent topological and nontopological spatially-extended structures. As an illustration, we investigate the nonequilibrium dynamics of spontaneous symmetry-breaking in three spatial dimensions. In particular, we focus on a model where a real scalar field, prepared initially in a symmetric thermal state, is quenched to a broken-symmetric state. For a certain range of initial temperatures, spatially-localized, long-lived structures known as oscillons emerge in synchrony and remain until the field reaches equilibrium again. We show that the RCE correlates with the number-density of oscillons, thus offering a quantitative measure of the emergence of nonperturbative spatiotemporal patterns that can be generalized to a variety of physical systems.Comment: LaTeX, 9 pages, 5 figures, 1 tabl

Unhealthy weight control behaviours in adolescent girls: a process model based on self-determination theory

This study used self-determination theory (Deci, E.L., & Ryan, R.M. (2000). The 'what' and 'why' of goal pursuits: Human needs and the self-determination of behavior. Psychological Inquiry, 11, 227-268.) to examine predictors of body image concerns and unhealthy weight control behaviours in a sample of 350 Greek adolescent girls. A process model was tested which proposed that perceptions of parental autonomy support and two life goals (health and image) would predict adolescents' degree of satisfaction of their basic psychological needs. In turn, psychological need satisfaction was hypothesised to negatively predict body image concerns (i.e. drive for thinness and body dissatisfaction) and, indirectly, unhealthy weight control behaviours. The predictions of the model were largely supported indicating that parental autonomy support and adaptive life goals can indirectly impact upon the extent to which female adolescents engage in unhealthy weight control behaviours via facilitating the latter's psychological need satisfaction