Dynamic prediction of pulmonary hypertension in systemic sclerosis using landmark analysis

OBJECTIVE: Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is a serious complication of systemic sclerosis (SSc). We explore prediction of short-term risk for PH using serial pulmonary function tests (PFTs) and other disease features. METHODS: Subjects with SSc, disease onset≥10 years prior to data retrieval, available autoantibody specificity and PFTs were included. Mixed effects modelling was used to describe change in PFTs over time. Landmarking was utilized to include serial assessments and stratified Cox proportional hazards regression analysis with landmarks as strata was used to develop the PH prediction models. RESULTS: We analysed 1247 SSc patients, 16.3% male, 35.8% with dcSSc. Anticentromere, anti-topoisomerase and anti-RNA polymerase antibodies were observed in 29.8%, 22.0% and 11.4% respectively and PH developed in 13.6%. Over time diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLco) and carbon monoxide transfer coefficient (Kco) declined in all SSc patients (up to 1.5%/year) but demonstrated much greater annual decline (up to 4.5% and 4.8% respectively) in the 5-7 years preceding PH diagnosis. Comparison between multivariable models including either DLco, Kco or FVC/DLco ratio, demonstrated that both absolute values and change over preceding year in those measurements associate strongly with risk of PH (HR 0.93 and 0.76 for Kco and its change; HR 0.90 and 0.96 for DLco and its change; and HR 1.08 and 2.01 for FVC/DLco ratio and its change; p<0.001 for all). The Kco based model had the greatest discriminating ability (Harrell's C 0.903). CONCLUSION: Our findings strongly support the importance of PFT trends over time in identifying patients at risk of PH. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Prognostic and predictive markers of systemic sclerosis-interstitial lung disease in a clinical trial and long-term observational cohort

OBJECTIVES: Explore prognostic and predictive markers of systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD) outcomes in a phase 3 trial (focuSSced) and prognostic markers in a real-world cohort (SMART). METHODS: The focuSSced SSc-ILD subgroup included 68 of 106 placebo-treated and 68 of 104 tocilizumab-treated patients. The SMART cohort included 505 patients with SSc-ILD. Linear mixed-effect models were used to identify factors associated with change in forced vital capacity (FVC). Kaplan-Meier estimation and Cox regression were used for time-to-event analyses. RESULTS: In placebo-treated focuSSced patients, sex was a significant prognostic factor for FVC decline; males had increased risk for absolute decline ≥10% in percent-predicted FVC (ppFVC) and 0.22% faster weekly FVC decline than females (P = 0.0001). FVC was 9.8% lower in patients with C-reactive protein >6 mg/ml versus those with C-reactive protein ≤6 mg/ml (P = 0.0059). Tocilizumab reduced the risk for ≥10% decline in ppFVC in patients who were male, had earlier disease (<2 years duration), had interleukin-6 levels <10 pg/ml, or had anti-topoisomerase antibodies (ATA). In the SMART cohort, prognostic factors for ppFVC <70% were male sex, ATA, and low baseline FVC. Males had 3.3% lower FVC 1 year after disease onset (P < 0.001) and 0.6% faster yearly decline (P = 0.03) than females. CONCLUSION: Prognostic markers in SSc-ILD were similar between focuSSced and SMART. Male sex and inflammatory markers were associated with lower FVC but interleukin-6 ≥ 10 pg/ml was not predictive of response to tocilizumab. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02453256

Registries in systemic sclerosis: a worldwide experience

SSc is a multisystem disease characterized by an unpredictable course, high mortality and resistance to therapy. The complexity and severity of SSc is a growing burden on the health-care systems. As a result, researchers are seeking new therapeutic strategies for effectively managing these patients. Disease registries are used to support care management efforts for groups of patients with chronic diseases and are meaningful to capture and track key patient information to assist the physicians in managing patients. For these reasons, SSc surveys, research associations and consortiums are pivotal to conduct ongoing research and data collection to enhance disease knowledge and support research projects. Currently, there are several national SSc registries in the UK, Germany, USA, Canada, Brazil and Australia. There is also an international registry established by the European League Against Rheumatism scleroderma trial and research (EUSTAR) called minimal essential data set (MEDS) Online, which collects data from over 8000 patients from 92 centres worldwide, including 21 European centres and 9 centres outside Europe. By collecting, analysing and disseminating data on disease progression and patient responses to long-term disease management strategies, registries help to improve understanding of the disease and keep medical professionals up to date on the latest advance

Scleroderma and related disorders: 223. Long Term Outcome in a Contemporary Systemic Sclerosis Cohort

Background: We have previously compared outcome in two groups of systemic sclerosis (SSc) patients with disease onset a decade apart and we reported data on 5 year survival and cumulative incidence of organ disease in a contemporary SSc cohort. The present study examines longer term outcome in an additional cohort of SSc followed for 10 years. Methods: We have examined patients with disease onset between years 1995 and 1999 allowing for at least 10 years of follow-up in a group that has characteristics representative for the patients we see in contemporary clinical practice. Results: Of the 398 patients included in the study, 252 (63.3%) had limited cutaneous (lc) SSc and 146 (36.7%) had diffuse cutaneous (dc) SSc. The proportion of male patients was higher among the dcSSc group (17.1% v 9.9%, p = 0.037) while the mean age of onset was significantly higher among lcSSc patients (50 ± 13 v 46 ± 13 years ± SD, p = 0.003). During a 10 year follow-up from disease onset, 45% of the dcSSc and 21% of the lcSSc subjects developed clinically significant pulmonary fibrosis, p < 0.001. Among them approximately half reached the endpoint within the first 3 years (23% of dcSSc and 10% of lcSSc) and over three quarters within the first 5 years (34% and 16% respectively). There was a similar incidence of pulmonary hypertension (PH) in the two subsets with a steady rate of increase over time. At 10 years 13% of dcSSc and 15% of lcSSc subjects had developed PH (p=0.558), with the earliest cases observed within the first 2 years of disease. Comparison between subjects who developed PH in the first and second 5 years from disease onset demonstrated no difference in demographic or clinical characteristics, but 5-year survival from PH onset was better among those who developed this complication later in their disease (49% v 24%), with a strong trend towards statistical significance (p = 0.058). Incidence of SSc renal crisis (SRC) was significantly higher among the dcSSc patients (12% v 4% in lcSSc, p = 0.002). As previously observed, the rate of development of SRC was highest in the first 3 years of disease- 10% in dcSSc and 3% in lcSSc. All incidences of clinically important cardiac disease developed in the first 5 years from disease onset (7% in dcSSc v 1% in lcSSc, p < 0.001) and remained unchanged at 10 years. As expected, 10-year survival among lcSSc subjects was significantly higher (81%) compared to that of dcSSc patients (70%, p = 0.006). Interestingly, although over the first 5 years the death rate was much higher in the dcSSc cohort (16% v 6% in lcSSc), over the following years it became very similar for both subsets (14% and 13% between years 5 and 10, and 18% and 17% between years 10 and 15 for dcSSc and lcSSc respectively). Conclusions: Even though dcSSc patients have higher incidence for most organ complications compared to lcSSc subjects, the worse survival among them is mainly due to higher early mortality rate. Mortality rate after first 5 years of disease becomes comparable in the two disease subsets. Disclosure statement: The authors have declared no conflicts of interes

BHPR research: qualitative1. Complex reasoning determines patients' perception of outcome following foot surgery in rheumatoid arhtritis

Background: Foot surgery is common in patients with RA but research into surgical outcomes is limited and conceptually flawed as current outcome measures lack face validity: to date no one has asked patients what is important to them. This study aimed to determine which factors are important to patients when evaluating the success of foot surgery in RA Methods: Semi structured interviews of RA patients who had undergone foot surgery were conducted and transcribed verbatim. Thematic analysis of interviews was conducted to explore issues that were important to patients. Results: 11 RA patients (9 ♂, mean age 59, dis dur = 22yrs, mean of 3 yrs post op) with mixed experiences of foot surgery were interviewed. Patients interpreted outcome in respect to a multitude of factors, frequently positive change in one aspect contrasted with negative opinions about another. Overall, four major themes emerged. Function: Functional ability & participation in valued activities were very important to patients. Walking ability was a key concern but patients interpreted levels of activity in light of other aspects of their disease, reflecting on change in functional ability more than overall level. Positive feelings of improved mobility were often moderated by negative self perception ("I mean, I still walk like a waddling duck”). Appearance: Appearance was important to almost all patients but perhaps the most complex theme of all. Physical appearance, foot shape, and footwear were closely interlinked, yet patients saw these as distinct separate concepts. Patients need to legitimize these feelings was clear and they frequently entered into a defensive repertoire ("it's not cosmetic surgery; it's something that's more important than that, you know?”). Clinician opinion: Surgeons' post operative evaluation of the procedure was very influential. The impact of this appraisal continued to affect patients' lasting impression irrespective of how the outcome compared to their initial goals ("when he'd done it ... he said that hasn't worked as good as he'd wanted to ... but the pain has gone”). Pain: Whilst pain was important to almost all patients, it appeared to be less important than the other themes. Pain was predominately raised when it influenced other themes, such as function; many still felt the need to legitimize their foot pain in order for health professionals to take it seriously ("in the end I went to my GP because it had happened a few times and I went to an orthopaedic surgeon who was quite dismissive of it, it was like what are you complaining about”). Conclusions: Patients interpret the outcome of foot surgery using a multitude of interrelated factors, particularly functional ability, appearance and surgeons' appraisal of the procedure. While pain was often noted, this appeared less important than other factors in the overall outcome of the surgery. Future research into foot surgery should incorporate the complexity of how patients determine their outcome Disclosure statement: All authors have declared no conflicts of interes

Prediction of Pulmonary Complications and Long-Term Survival in Systemic Sclerosis

Objective. To assess survival and incidence of organ-based complications in a large single-center cohort of unselected systemic sclerosis (SSc) patients, and to explore predictors of survival and clinically significant pulmonary fibrosis (PF) and pulmonary hypertension (PH). Methods. The study cohort consisted of 398 consecutive SSc patients, followed up for up to 15 years. Cox proportional hazards analysis with demographic, clinical, and laboratory characteristics as predictor variables was used to develop prediction models for pulmonary complications and survival. Results. The overall survival estimate at the end of followup was 57% among patients with limited cutaneous SSc (lcSSc) and 50% among patients with diffuse cutaneous SSc (dcSSc) (P = 0.017). We found that greater age at disease onset, dcSSc, lower diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO), lower hemoglobin levels, higher serum creatinine levels, and the presence of PH or cardiac involvement were independent predictors of worse survival. Over the entire followup period, 42% of dcSSc patients and 22% of lcSSc patients developed clinically significant PF (P < 0.001). The variables that predicted clinically significant PF development were dcSSc, greater age at onset, lower forced vital capacity and DLCO, and the presence of anti-topoisomerase I antibody, while the presence of anticentromere antibody was protective. There was no difference in cumulative incidence of PH between the 2 subsets-24% in lcSSc and 18% in dcSSc (P = 0.558). Incidence rates were 1-2% per year. The PH prediction model demonstrated that greater age at onset, increase in serum creatinine levels, lower DLCO, and the presence of anti-RNA polymerase III or anti-U3 RNP antibodies were associated with increased risk of PH, while anti-topoisomerase I antibody positivity reduced the hazard. Conclusion. Our study provides data on long-term outcome of SSc and the timing and frequency of major organ complications. The predictive models we present could be used as clinical tools for patient risk stratification and could facilitate cohort enrichment for event-driven studies

Vasodilators and low-dose acetylsalicylic acid are associated with a lower incidence of distinct primary myocardial disease manifestations in systemic sclerosis: results of the DeSScipher inception cohort study

OBJECTIVES To investigate the influence of vasodilator drugs on the occurrence of features depending on myocardial ischaemia/fibrosis (ventricular arrhythmias, Q waves, cardiac blocks, pacemaker implantation, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <55%, and/or congestive heart failure and sudden cardiac death) in systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS 601 patients with SSc were enrolled from 1 December 2012 to 30 November 2015 and had a second visit 0.5-4 years apart. 153 received no vasodilators; 448 received vasodilator therapy (ie, calcium channel blockers and/or ACE inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers or combinations of them), 89 of them being also treated with either endothelin receptor antagonists or PDE5 inhibitors or prostanoids. Associations between the occurrence of myocardial disease manifestations and any demographic, disease and therapeutic aspect were investigated by Cox regression analysis. A Cox frailty survival model with centre of enrolment as random effect was performed. RESULTS During 914 follow-up patient-years, 12 ventricular arrhythmias, 5 Q waves, 40 cardiac blocks, 6 pacemaker implantations and 19 reduced LVEF and/or congestive heart failure (CHF) occurred. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, vasodilator therapy was associated with a lower incidence of ventricular arrhythmias (p=0.03); low-dose acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) with a lower incidence of cardiac blocks and/or Q waves and/or pacemaker implantation (p=0.02); active disease with a higher incidence of LVEF <55% and/or CHF and cardiac blocks and/or Q waves and/or pacemaker implantation (p=0.05). CONCLUSIONS The present study might suggest a preventative effect on the occurrence of distinct myocardial manifestations by vasodilator therapy and low-dose ASA