In search of a modelling strategy for projecting internal migration in European countries - Demographic versus economic-geographical approaches

Internal migration is the most volatile and difficult to predict component of regional demographic change. A pure demographic approach using age and sex-specific parameters of migration intensities cannot fully capture the migration trends over time. One of the approaches that can be used for a better description of past trends and forecasting of future trends is to use additional non-demographic information such as regional economic indicators. In this paper we compare the predictive performance of pure demographic and extended economic-geographical models using data of four European countries at the so-called NUTS 2 level. The models are nested within a GLM specification%2C that allows both demographic and extended models to be written as specific cases of loglinear models. Therefore model fit and performance can be compared directly.

In search of a modelling strategy for projecting internal migration in European countries - Demographic versus economic-geographical approaches

Internal migration is the most volatile and difficult to predict component of regional demographic change. A pure demographic approach using age and sex-specific parameters of migration intensities cannot fully capture the migration trends over time. One of the approaches that can be used for a better description of past trends and forecasting of future trends is to use additional non-demographic information such as regional economic indicators. In this paper we compare the predictive performance of pure demographic and extended economic-geographical models using data of four European countries at the so-called NUTS 2 level. The models are nested within a GLM specification%2C that allows both demographic and extended models to be written as specific cases of loglinear models. Therefore model fit and performance can be compared directly

An early Phase II randomised controlled trial testing the effect on persecutory delusions of using CBT to reduce negative cognitions about the self: the potential benefits of enhancing self confidence

Background Research has shown that paranoia may directly build on negative ideas about the self. Feeling inferior can lead to ideas of vulnerability. The clinical prediction is that decreasing negative self cognitions will reduce paranoia. Method Thirty patients with persistent persecutory delusions were randomised to receive brief CBT in addition to standard care or to standard care (ISRCTN06118265). The six session intervention was designed to decrease negative, and increase positive, self cognitions. Assessments at baseline, 8 weeks (posttreatment) and 12 weeks were carried out by a rater blind to allocation. The primary outcomes were posttreatment scores for negative self beliefs and paranoia. Secondary outcomes were psychological well-being, positive beliefs about the self, persecutory delusions, social comparison, self-esteem, anxiety, and depression. Results Trial recruitment and retention were feasible and the intervention highly acceptable to the patients. All patients provided follow-up data. Posttreatment there was a small reduction in negative self beliefs (Cohen's d = 0.24) and a moderate reduction in paranoia (d = 0.59), but these were not statistically significant. There were statistically significant improvements in psychological well-being (d = 1.16), positive beliefs about the self (d = 1.00), negative social comparison (d = 0.88), self-esteem (d = 0.62), and depression (d = 0.68). No improvements were maintained. No adverse events were associated with the intervention. Conclusions The intervention produced short-term gains consistent with the prediction that improving cognitions about the self will reduce persecutory delusions. The improvement in psychological well-being is important in its own right. We recommend that the different elements of the intervention are tested separately and that the treatment is lengthened

PPARβ activation inhibits melanoma cell proliferation involving repression of the Wilms’ tumour suppressor WT1

Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPARs) are ligand-activated transcription factors that strongly influence molecular signalling in normal and cancer cells. Although increasing evidence suggests a role of PPARs in skin carcinogenesis, only expression of PPARγ has been investigated in human melanoma tissues. Activation of PPARα has been shown to inhibit the metastatic potential, whereas stimulation of PPARγ decreased melanoma cell proliferation. We show here that the third member of the PPAR family, PPARβ/δ is expressed in human melanoma samples. Specific pharmacological activation of PPARβ using GW0742 or GW501516 in low concentrations inhibits proliferation of human and murine melanoma cells. Inhibition of proliferation is accompanied by decreased expression of the Wilms’ tumour suppressor 1 (WT1), which is implicated in melanoma proliferation. We demonstrate that PPARβ directly represses WT1 as (1) PPARβ activation represses WT1 promoter activity; (2) in chromatin immunoprecipitation and electrophoretic mobility shift assays, we identified a binding element for PPARβ in the WT1 promoter; (3) deletion of this binding element abolishes repression by PPARβ and (4) the WT1 downstream molecules nestin and zyxin are down-regulated upon PPARβ activation. Our findings elucidate a novel mechanism of signalling by ligands of PPARβ, which leads to suppression of melanoma cell growth through direct repression of WT1

Demographic Epidemiologic Projections of Long-Term Care Needs in Selected European Countries: Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and Poland. ENEPRI Research Report No. 112, March 2012

Work Package 2 of the ANCIEN project assesses the future numbers of care-dependent elderly in four selected countries: Spain, Poland, Germany and the Netherlands. The estimates are consistent with the available disability data and the mortality forecasts of the EUROPOP 2008 scenarios. The results show the effects of assumptions about how old age disability and mortality are related, and assess the effects of smoking and BMI. The main determinant of future numbers of disabled elderly turns out to be the demographic ageing of the large baby boom cohorts. The impact of life extension depends on the correlation of old age disability and mortality, and is moderate under reasonable assumptions. Obesity and (quitting) smoking have very little effect

Demographic Epidemiologic Projections of Long-Term Care Needs in Selected European Countries: Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and Poland. ENEPRI Policy Brief No. 8, February 2012

The objectives of Work Package (WP) 2 of the EU FP7 project ANCIEN are to assess the actual and future numbers of elderly care-dependent persons in selected countries. Such projections are needed to support planning to meet future needs for long-term care (LTC) across the EU. This study has selected four countries for projections of LTC needs: Spain, Poland, Germany and the Netherlands. These countries are representative of European epidemiology and of different systems for the provision of long-term care. Using the mortality forecasts of the EUROPOP 2008 scenarios as a basis for projections of the number of disabled elderly persons, the study adds scenarios on the effects of smoking and obesity. The study finds that the main determinant of the future numbers of the disabled elderly is the demographic ageing of the large baby boom cohorts, which is projected to cause increases of 44% (Germany), 65% (Spain), 82% (the Netherlands) and 57% (Poland). The impact of life extension depends on the correlation of disability in old age and mortality, and is moderate under reasonably conservative assumptions (with rises of 11% for Germany, 7% for Spain, 9% for the Netherlands and 22% for Poland). For Poland, convergence with Germany on the onset of disability in terms of timing would limit this increase. Obesity and (quitting) smoking have little effect – increasing levels of disability by around 2 percentage points per absolute increase in the prevalence of obesity of 5%, while quitting smoking has even less effect

Determinants of the subnational distribution of immigration

This paper addresses the issue of the subnational distribution of immigrants. In particular the following question is discussed: what factors, in general, account for the regional attractiveness to immigrants to settle in a particular region, and, more specifically, what are the most important factors influencing the spatial pattern of immigration in a selected number of European countries? In addition, the spatial pattern of destinations of immigration, as well as of foreign populations is discussed. Within this framework, attention is focused on the relationship between stocks of foreigners and immigration flows. The study was motivated by the need to improve assumptions on the regional distribution of immigration to be implemented in subnational population projections. The overall conclusion is that assumptions on the spatial distribution of immigration flows could be improved by using the spatial distribution of stocks of foreign population as predictor. Copyright Royal Dutch Geographical Society 2001.