Anomalous transport in complex networks

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2011.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 43-45).The emergence of scaling in transport through interconnected systems is a consequence of the topological structure of the network and the physical mechanisms underlying the transport dynamics. We study transport by advection and diffusion in scale-free and Erdős-Rényi networks. Using stochastic particle simulations, we find anomalous (nonlinear) scaling of the mean square displacement with time. We show the connection with existing descriptions of anomalous transport in disordered systems, and explain the mean transport behavior from the coupled nature of particle jump lengths and transition times. Moreover, we study epidemic spreading through the air transportation network with a particle-tracking model that accounts for the spatial distribution of airports, detailed air traffic and realistic (correlated) waitingtime distributions of individual agents. We use empirical data from US air travel to constrain the model parameters and validate the model's predictions of traffic patterns. We formulate a theory that identifies the most influential spreaders from the point of view of early-time spreading behavior. We find that network topology, geography, aggregate traffic and individual mobility patterns are all essential for accurate predictions of spreading.by Christos Nicolaides.S.M

Self-organization of network dynamics into local quantized states

Self-organization and pattern formation in network-organized systems emerges from the collective activation and interaction of many interconnected units. A striking feature of these non-equilibrium structures is that they are often localized and robust: only a small subset of the nodes, or cell assembly, is activated. Understanding the role of cell assemblies as basic functional units in neural networks and socio-technical systems emerges as a fundamental challenge in network theory. A key open question is how these elementary building blocks emerge, and how they operate, linking structure and function in complex networks. Here we show that a network analogue of the Swift-Hohenberg continuum model---a minimal-ingredients model of nodal activation and interaction within a complex network---is able to produce a complex suite of localized patterns. Hence, the spontaneous formation of robust operational cell assemblies in complex networks can be explained as the result of self-organization, even in the absence of synaptic reinforcements. Our results show that these self-organized, local structures can provide robust functional units to understand natural and socio-technical network-organized processes.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figure

Uncovering the fragility of large-scale engineering project networks

Engineering projects are notoriously hard to complete on-time, with project delays often theorised to propagate across interdependent activities. Here, we use a novel dataset consisting of activity networks from 14 diverse, large-scale engineering projects to uncover network properties that impact timely project completion. We provide the first empirical evidence of the infectious nature of activity deviations, where perturbations in the delivery of a single activity can impact up to 4 activities downstream, leading to large perturbation cascades. We further show that perturbation clustering significantly affects project overall delays. Finally, we find that poorly performing projects have their highest perturbations in high reach nodes, which can lead to largest cascades, while well performing projects have perturbations in low reach nodes, resulting in localised cascades. Altogether, these findings pave the way for a network-science framework that can materially enhance the delivery of large-scale engineering projects.Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures, 7 supplementary figure

Information consistency as response to pre-launch advertising communications: The case of YouTube trailers

IntroductionPre-launch advertising communications are critical for the early adoption of experiential products. Often, companies release a variety of advertising messages for the same product, which results in a lack of information consistency. Research on the effect of advertising communications with different message content is scarce. Further, most studies on information consistency rely on experimental methods, leaving the actual effect of consumer response on product adoption unknown.MethodsTreating online comments to movie trailers as consumer response to advertising communication, we propose a natural language processing methodology to measure information consistency. We validate our measurement through an online experiment and test it on 1.3 million YouTube comments.ResultsOur empirical results provide evidence that information consistency driven by trailer-viewing is a key driver of opening box office success.DiscussionInsights deriving from this study are important to marketing communications research, especially in contexts where early product adoption is critical

The Efficiency of U.S. Public Space Utilization During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has called for and generated massive novel government regulations to increase social distancing for the purpose of reducing disease transmission. A number of studies have attempted to guide and measure the effectiveness of these policies, but there has been less focus on the overall efficiency of these policies. Efficient social distancing requires implementing stricter restrictions during periods of high viral prevalence and rationing social contact to disproportionately preserve gatherings that produce a good ratio of benefits to transmission risk. To evaluate whether U.S. social distancing policy actually produced an efficient social distancing regime, we tracked consumer preferences for, visits to, and crowding in public locations of 26 different types. We show that the United States’ rationing of public spaces, postspring 2020, has failed to achieve efficiency along either dimension. In April 2020, the United States did achieve notable decreases in visits to public spaces and focused these reductions at locations that offer poor benefit-to-risk tradeoffs. However, this achievement was marred by an increase, from March to April, in crowding at remaining locations due to fewer locations remaining open. In December 2020, at the height of the pandemic so far, crowding in and total visits to locations were higher than in February, before the U.S. pandemic, and these increases were concentrated in locations with the worst value-to-risk tradeoff

Intelligent Noninvasive Diagnosis of Aneuploidy:Raw Values and Highly Imbalanced Dataset

The objective of this paper is to introduce a noninvasive diagnosis procedure for aneuploidy and to minimize the social and financial cost of prenatal diagnosis tests that are performed for fetal aneuploidies in an early stage of pregnancy. We propose a method by using artificial neural networks trained with data from singleton pregnancy cases, while undergoing first trimester screening. Three different datasets' with a total of 122 362 euploid and 967 aneuploid cases were used in this study. The data for each case contained markers collected from the mother and the fetus. This study, unlike previous studies published by the authors for a similar problem differs in three basic principles: 1) the training of the artificial neural networks is done by using the markers' values in their raw form (unprocessed), 2) a balanced training dataset is created and used by selecting only a representative number of euploids for the training phase, and 3) emphasis is given to the financials and suggest hierarchy and necessity of the available tests. The proposed artificial neural networks models were optimized in the sense of reaching a minimum false positive rate and at the same time securing a 100% detection rate for Trisomy 21. These systems correctly identify other aneuploidies (Trisomies 13&18, Turner, and Triploid syndromes) at a detection rate greater than 80%. In conclusion, we demonstrate that artificial neural network systems can contribute in providing noninvasive, effective early screening for fetal aneuploidies with results that compare favorably to other existing methods

First Trimester Noninvasive Prenatal Diagnosis:A Computational Intelligence Approach

The objective of this study is to examine the potential value of using machine learning techniques such as artificial neural network (ANN) schemes for the noninvasive estimation, at 11-13 weeks of gestation, the risk for euploidy, trisomy 21 (T21), and other chromosomal aneuploidies (O.C.A.), from suitable sonographic, biochemical markers, and other relevant data. A database(1) consisted of 51,208 singleton pregnancy cases, while undergoing first trimester screening for aneuploidies has been used for the building, training, and verification of the proposed method. From all the data collected for each case from the mother and the fetus, the following 9 are considered by the collaborating obstetricians as the most relevant to the problem in question: maternal age, previous pregnancy with T21, fetal crown-rump length, serum free beta-hCG in multiples of the median (MoM), pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A in MoM, nuchal translucency thickness, nasal bone, tricuspid flow, and ductus venosus flow. The dataset was randomly divided into a training set that was used to guide the development of various ANN schemes, support vector machines, and k-nearest neighbor models. An evaluation set used to determine the performance of the developed systems. The evaluation set, totally unknown to the proposed system, contained 16,898 cases of euploidy fetuses, 129 cases of T21, and 76 cases of O.C.A. The best results were obtained by the ANN system, which identified correctly all T21 cases, i.e., 0% false negative rate (FNR) and 96.1% of euploidies, i.e., 3.9% false positive rate (FPR), meaning that no child would have been born with T21 if only that 3.9% of all pregnancies had been sent for invasive testing. The aim of this work is to produce a practical tool for the obstetrician which will ideally provide 0% FNR and to recommend the minimum possible number of cases for further testing such as invasive. In conclusion, it was demonstrated that ANN schemes can provide an effective early screening for fetal aneuploidies at a low FPR with results that compare favorably to those of existing systems

AM-FM Texture Image Analysis of the Intima and Media Layers of the Carotid Artery

Abstract. The purpose of this paper is to propose the use of amplitude modulation-frequency modulation (AM-FM) features for describing atherosclerotic plaque features that are associated with clinical factors such as intima media thickness and a patient's age. AM-FM analysis reveals the instantaneous amplitude (IA) of the media layer decreases with age. This decrease in IA maybe attributed to the reduction in calcified, stable plaque components and an increase in stroke risk with age. On the other hand, an increase in the median instantaneous frequency (IF) of the media layer suggests the fragmentation of solid, large plaque components, which also lead to an increase in the risk of stroke. The findings suggest that AM-FM features can be used to assess the risk of stroke over a wide range of patient populations. Future work will incorporate a new texture image retrieval system that uses AM-FM features to retrieve intima and intima media layer images that could be associated with the same level of the risk of stroke

A Metric of Influential Spreading during Contagion Dynamics through the Air Transportation Network

The spread of infectious diseases at the global scale is mediated by long-range human travel. Our ability to predict the impact of an outbreak on human health requires understanding the spatiotemporal signature of early-time spreading from a specific location. Here, we show that network topology, geography, traffic structure and individual mobility patterns are all essential for accurate predictions of disease spreading. Specifically, we study contagion dynamics through the air transportation network by means of a stochastic agent-tracking model that accounts for the spatial distribution of airports, detailed air traffic and the correlated nature of mobility patterns and waiting-time distributions of individual agents. From the simulation results and the empirical air-travel data, we formulate a metric of influential spreading––the geographic spreading centrality––which accounts for spatial organization and the hierarchical structure of the network traffic, and provides an accurate measure of the early-time spreading power of individual nodes