Econometric Data Analysis Affecting Performance of Supply Chain Systems in the Petroleum Industries in Kenya

The purpose of this paper was to do econometric data analysis on performance of supply chain systems in the petroleum industries in Kenya. Specifically, the objectives of the study were to establish whether there is any effect from; level of skills, information and communication technology and tendering systems and the moderating factor have an effect on supply chain systems performance. The study was conducted using a survey design. The total population of all oil companies in the 73 was covered by the study.  Several studies were carried to validate the final findings. Finally, this statistics concluded that there is need to do econometric data analysis to validate the effect of supply chain systems on performance by doing proper forecasting from the up streams to the down streams towards achieving a competitive edge in the business markets such as the petroleum industry. The econometric analysis focused on the these areas;  Information functions in order to inform management, support decision making and to identify  problem areas; Steering function in order to set targets and give directions to desired outcomes; Controlling function in order to supervise process execution. Keywords: level of skill of staffs, Information communication and technology, Tendering systems and Performanc

Determinant Affecting Performance of Supply Chain Systems in the Petroleum Industries in Kenya

The purpose of this paper was to analyze the effect of crude oil price as a determinant on performance of supply chain systems in the petroleum industries in Kenya. Supply chain is a dynamic process and involves the constant flow of information, materials, and funds across multiple functional areas both within and between chain members. Members in the chain need to cooperate with their business partners in order to meet customer’s needs and to maximize their profit by reducing cost of crude oil. However, it is a very difficult task in managing the multiple collaborations in a supply chain because there are so many firms involved in the supply chain operations with its own resources  processes also requires real-time operation and decision making across different tasks, functional areas, and organizational boundaries in order to deal with problems and uncertainties. The strategic move of focus for mass customization, quick response, and high-quality service cannot be achieved without more complex cooperation and dynamic structure of supply chains. Keywords: Cost of crude oil price, and Performance of supply chai

Self-reported knowledge, attitudes, practices and barriers in use of evidence-based medicine among resident physicians in Kenya: a mixed methods study

Background: Evidence based medicine (EBM) helps clinicians to integrate latest research evidence into their daily clinical practice. There is a need for all healthcare professions to adopt it in order to provide safe and most costefective care. Postgraduate doctors are at the frontline of healthcare delivery and all medical institutions should strive to produce practitioners of EBM. Studies have shown that physicians are still struggling to adapt to this paradigm shift in the practice of medicine but very few studies have been done in Sub Saharan Africa. This study explored the self-reported knowledge, attitudes, practices and barriers of evidence-based practice among resident physicians in a tertiary teaching hospital. Methods: A mixed methods cross-sectional study that used convergent parallel design was conducted. The quantitative arm was conducted among all residents enrolled in the Master of Medicine programme at Aga Khan University Hospital Nairobi (AKUHN). It included an online survey exploring self-reported knowledge, attitudes, practices and barriers of EBM among all residents. Simultaneously, semi-structured In-Depth Interviews were carried out among 18 purposefully selected residents in order to explore the same themes in more depth. Results: One hundred and one residents (99%) responded to the survey. The mean scores for self-reported knowledge, attitude and practice of EBM among residents were 73.88, 66.96 and 63.19% respectively, which were generally higher than in comparable studies. There was a signifcant association between year of residency and practice of EBM. The most common barriers faced by residents were lack of time, lack of EBM skills and patients’ unawareness about EBM. From the qualitative study, residents demonstrated good knowledge and support of EBM but practice remained relatively poor. Barriers to EBM were characterized by lack of motivation, time, skills and resources, patient overload and fear of challenging consultants. Conclusion: There was good understanding and support of EBM among residents at AKUHN, though challenges were experienced in regards to practice of EBM because of lack of time and skills. Therefore resources should be allocated towards integrating EBM into undergraduate medical curricula to cultivate critical thinking skills at an early stage before transition into residency

Estimation of the burden of active and life-time epilepsy: a meta-analytic approach.

PURPOSE: To estimate the burden of lifetime epilepsy (LTE) and active epilepsy (AE) and examine the influence of study characteristics on prevalence estimates. METHODS: We searched online databases and identified articles using prespecified criteria. Random-effects meta-analyses were used to estimate the median prevalence in developed countries and in urban and rural settings in developing countries. The impact of study characteristics on prevalence estimates was determined using meta-regression models. RESULTS: The median LTE prevalence for developed countries was 5.8 per 1,000 (5th-95th percentile range 2.7-12.4) compared to 15.4 per 1,000 (4.8-49.6) for rural and 10.3 (2.8-37.7) for urban studies in developing countries. The median prevalence of AE was 4.9 per 1,000 (2.3-10.3) for developed countries and 12.7 per 1,000 (3.5-45.5) and 5.9 (3.4-10.2) in rural and urban studies in developing countries. The estimates of burden for LTE and AE in developed countries were 6.8 million (5th-95th percentile range 3.2-14.7) and 5.7 million (2.7-12.2), respectively. In developing countries these were 45 (14-145) million LTE and 17 (10-133) million AE in rural areas and 17 (5-61) million LTE and 10 (5-17) million AE in urban areas. Studies involving all ages or only adults showed higher estimates than pediatric studies. Higher prevalence estimates were also associated with rural location and small study size. CONCLUSIONS: This study estimates the global burden of epilepsy and the proportions with AE, which may benefit from treatment. There are systematic differences in reported prevalence estimates, which are only partially explained by study characteristics

Evaluation of Kilifi epilepsy education programme: a randomized controlled trial

Objectives: The epilepsy treatment gap is largest in resource-poor countries.Weevaluated the efficacy of a 1-day health education program in a rural area of Kenya. The primary outcome was adherence to antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) as measured by drug levels in the blood, and the secondary outcomes were seizure frequency and Kilifi Epilepsy Beliefs and Attitudes Scores (KEBAS). Methods: Seven hundred thirty-eight people with epilepsy (PWE) and their designated supporter were randomized to either the intervention (education) or nonintervention group. Data were collected at baseline and 1 year after the education intervention was administered to the intervention group. There were 581 PWE assessed at both time points. At the end of the study, 105 PWE from the intervention group and 86 from the nonintervention group gave blood samples, which were assayed for the most commonly used AEDs (phenobarbital, phenytoin, and carbamazepine). The proportions of PWE with detectable AED levels were determined using a standard blood assay method. The laboratory technicians conducting the assays were blinded to the randomization. Secondary outcomes were evaluated using questionnaires administered by trained field staff. Modified Poisson regression was used to investigate the factors associated with improved adherence (transition from nonoptimal AED level in blood at baseline to optimal levels at follow-up), reduced seizures, and improved KEBAS, which was done as a post hoc analysis. This trial is registered in ISRCTN register under ISRCTN35680481. Results: There was no significant difference in adherence to AEDs based on detectable drug levels (odds ratio [OR] 1.46, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.74–2.90, p = 0.28) or by self-reports (OR 1.00, 95% CI 0.71–1.40, p = 1.00) between the intervention and nonintervention group. The intervention group had significantly fewer beliefs about traditional causes of epilepsy, cultural treatment, and negative stereotypes than the nonintervention group. There was no difference in seizure frequency. A comparison of the baseline and follow-up data showed a significant increase in adherence—intervention group (36–81% [p \u3c 0.001]) and nonintervention group (38–74% [p \u3c 0.001])—using detectable blood levels. The number of patients with less frequent seizures (≤3 seizures in the last 3 months) increased in the intervention group (62–80% [p = 0.002]) and in the nonintervention group (67–75% [p = 0.04]). Improved therapeutic adherence (observed in both groups combined) was positively associated with positive change in beliefs about risks of epilepsy (relative risk [RR] 2.00, 95% CI 1.03–3.95) and having nontraditional religious beliefs (RR 2.01, 95% CI 1.01–3.99). Reduced seizure frequency was associated with improved adherence (RR 1.72, 95% CI 1.19–2.47). Positive changes in KEBAS were associated with having tertiary education as compared to none (RR 1.09, 95% CI 1.05–1.14). Significance: Health education improves knowledge about epilepsy, but once only contact does not improve adherence. However, sustained education may improve adherence in future studies

Incidence, remission and mortality of convulsive epilepsy in rural northeast South Africa

Background: Epilepsy is one of the most common neurological conditions globally, estimated to constitute 0.75% of the global burden of disease, with the majority of this burden found in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs). Few studies from LMICs, including much of sub-Saharan Africa, have described the incidence, remission or mortality rates due to epilepsy, which are needed to quantify the burden and inform policy. This study investigates the epidemiological parameters of convulsive epilepsy within a context of high HIV prevalence and an emerging burden of cardiovascular disease. Methods: A cross-sectional population survey of 82,818 individuals, in the Agincourt Health and Socio-demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) in rural northeast South Africa was conducted in 2008, from which 296 people were identified with active convulsive epilepsy. A follow-up survey was conducted in 2012. Incidence and mortality rates were estimated, with duration and remission rates calculated using the DISMOD II software package. Results: The crude incidence for convulsive epilepsy was 17.4/100,000 per year (95%CI: 13.1-23.0). Remission was 4.6% and 3.9% per year for males and females, respectively. The standardized mortality ratio was 2.6 (95%CI: 1.7-3.5), with 33.3% of deaths directly related to epilepsy. Mortality was higher in men than women (adjusted rate ratio (aRR) 2.6 (95%CI: 1.2-5.4)), and was significantly associated with older ages (50+ years versus those 0-5 years old (RR 4.8 (95%CI: 0.6-36.4)). Conclusions: The crude incidence was lower whilst mortality rates were similar to other African studies; however, this study found higher mortality amongst older males. Efforts aimed at further understanding what causes epilepsy in older people and developing interventions to reduce prolonged seizures are likely to reduce the overall burden of ACE in rural South Africa

Risk factors associated with the epilepsy treatment gap in Kilifi, Kenya: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Many people with epilepsy in low-income countries do not receive appropriate biomedical treatment. This epilepsy treatment gap might be caused by patients not seeking biomedical treatment or not adhering to prescribed antiepileptic drugs (AEDs). We measured the prevalence of and investigated risk factors for the epilepsy treatment gap in rural Kenya. METHODS: All people with active convulsive epilepsy identified during a cross-sectional survey of 232,176 people in Kilifi were approached. The epilepsy treatment gap was defined as the percentage of people with active epilepsy who had not accessed biomedical services or who were not on treatment or were on inadequate treatment. Information about risk factors was obtained through a questionnaire-based interview of sociodemographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, access to health facilities, seizures, stigma, and beliefs and attitudes about epilepsy. The factors associated with people not seeking biomedical treatment and not adhering to AEDs were investigated separately, adjusted for age. FINDINGS: 673 people with epilepsy were interviewed, of whom 499 (74%) reported seeking treatment from a health facility. Blood samples were taken from 502 (75%) people, of whom 132 (26%) reported taking AEDs, but 189 (38%) had AEDs detectable in the blood. The sensitivity and specificity of self-reported adherence compared with AEDs detected in blood were 38·1% (95% CI 31·1-45·4) and 80·8% (76·0-85·0). The epilepsy treatment gap was 62·4% (58·1-66·6). In multivariable analysis, failure to seek biomedical treatment was associated with a patient holding traditional animistic religious beliefs (adjusted odds ratio 1·85, 95% CI 1·11-2·71), reporting negative attitudes about biomedical treatment (0·86, 0·78-0·95), living more than 30 km from health facilities (3·89, 1·77-8·51), paying for AEDs (2·99, 1·82-4·92), having learning difficulties (2·30, 1·29-4·11), having had epilepsy for longer than 10 years (4·60, 2·07-10·23), and having focal seizures (2·28, 1·50-3·47). Reduced adherence was associated with negative attitudes about epilepsy (1·10, 1·03-1·18) and taking of AEDs for longer than 5 years (3·78, 1·79-7·98). INTERPRETATION: The sensitivity and specificity of self-reported adherence is poor, but on the basis of AED detection in blood almost two-thirds of patients with epilepsy were not on treatment. Education about epilepsy and making AEDs freely available in health facilities near people with epilepsy should be investigated as potential ways to reduce the epilepsy treatment gap. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust

Accelerating Kenya's progress to 2030: understanding the determinants of under-five mortality from 1990 to 2015.

INTRODUCTION: Despite recent gains, Kenya did not achieve its Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target for reducing under-five mortality. To accelerate progress to 2030, we must understand what impacted mortality throughout the MDG period. METHODS: Trends in the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) were analysed using data from nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys (1989-2014). Comprehensive, mixed-methods analyses of health policies and systems, workforce and health financing were conducted using relevant surveys, government documents and key informant interviews with country experts. A hierarchical multivariable linear regression analysis was undertaken to better understand the proximal determinants of change in U5MR over the MDG period. RESULTS: U5MR declined by 50% from 1993 to 2014. However, mortality increased between 1990 and 2000, following the introduction of facility user fees and declining coverage of essential interventions. The MDGs, together with Kenya's political changes in 2003, ushered in a new era of policymaking with a strong focus on children under 5 years of age. External aid for child health quadrupled from 40 million in 2002 to 180 million in 2012, contributing to the dramatic improvement in U5MR throughout the latter half of the MDG period. Our multivariable analysis explained 44% of the decline in U5MR from 2003 to 2014, highlighting maternal literacy, household wealth, sexual and reproductive health and maternal and infant nutrition as important contributing factors. Children living in Nairobi had higher odds of child mortality relative to children living in other regions of Kenya. CONCLUSIONS: To attain the Sustainable Development Goal targets for child health, Kenya must uphold its current momentum. For equitable access to health services, user fees must not be reintroduced in public facilities. Support for maternal nutrition and reproductive health should be prioritised, and Kenya should acknowledge its changing demographics in order to effectively manage the escalating burden of poor health among the urban poor