The influence of synoptic weather regimes on UK air quality: Regional model studies of tropospheric column NO2

Synoptic meteorology can have a significant influence on UK air quality. Cyclonic conditions lead to the dispersion of air pollutants away from source regions, while anticyclonic conditions lead to their accumulation over source regions. Meteorology also modifies atmospheric chemistry processes such as photolysis and wet deposition. Previous studies have shown a relationship between observed satellite tropospheric column NO2 and synoptic meteorology in different seasons. Here, we test whether the UK Met Office Air Quality in the Unified Model (AQUM) can reproduce these observations and then use the model to explore the relative importance of various factors. We show that AQUM successfully captures the observed relationships when sampled under the Lamb weather types, an objective classification of midday UK circulation patterns. By using a range of idealized NOx-like tracers with different e-folding lifetimes, we show that under different synoptic regimes the NO2 lifetime in AQUM is approximately 6 h in summer and 12 h in winter. The longer lifetime can explain why synoptic spatial tropospheric column NO2 variations are more significant in winter compared to summer, due to less NO2 photochemical loss. We also show that cyclonic conditions have more seasonality in tropospheric column NO2 than anticyclonic conditions as they result in more extreme spatial departures from the wintertime seasonal average. Within a season (summer or winter) under different synoptic regimes, a large proportion of the spatial pattern in the UK tropospheric column NO2 field can be explained by the idealized model tracers, showing that transport is an important factor in governing the variability of UK air quality on seasonal synoptic timescales

Substantial subpial cortical demyelination in progressive multiple sclerosis: have we underestimated the extent of cortical pathology?

Aim: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an inflammatory demyelinating and neurodegenerative disease. Much of the complex symptomatology relates to pathology outside the classic white matter plaque, whereby lesions of the cortical grey matter, which are difficult to resolve by conventional clinical imaging, are in part predictive of outcome. We investigated the extent of grey matter pathology in whole coronal macrosections to reassess the contribution of cortical pathology to total demyelinating lesion area in progressive MS. Methods: Twenty-two cases of progressive MS were prepared as whole bi-hemispheric macrosections for histology, immunostaining and quantitative analysis of lesion number and relative area, leptomeningeal inflammation and microglial/macrophage activation. Results: Cortical grey matter demyelination was seen in all cases, which was more extensive than in white and deep grey matter (hippocampus, thalamus and basal ganglia) and accounted for 0.8%-60.2% of the entire measurable cortical ribbon. The pattern of cortical grey matter demyelination was predominantly subpial (mean 90.9%, range 60%-100%, of total cortical grey matter lesion area) and cases with the largest areas of subpial cortical lesions had more and larger deep grey matter lesions, greater numbers of activated microglia/macrophages, both in lesions as well as in normal cortical grey matter, together with elevated leptomeningeal inflammation and lymphoid-like structures. White matter lesion area was unchanged when compared with the progressive MS cases with little subpial cortical demyelination. Conclusion: Analysis of whole coronal macrosections reveals cortical demyelination is more extensive than reported by conventional histological methods. Cases of progressive MS with substantial subpial cortical demyelination that is independent of underlying white matter lesion area support the implications that these lesions may in-part arise through different pathogenetic mechanisms. Biomarkers and/or imaging correlates of this subpial pathology are required if we are to fully comprehend the clinical disease process

The influence of future weather pattern changes and projected sea-level rise on coastal flood impacts around the UK

When local extreme water levels surpass defences, the consequences can be devastating. We assess the importance of sea-level rise and future weather pattern changes on UK coastal flood impacts. Historical weather pattern classifications are matched with the observed skew surges and significant wave heights. Coastal-risk weather patterns are then defined as ≥ 1% of events in the distribution exceeding the local warning threshold. We combine this methodology with projections of sea-level rise and weather pattern frequency occurrences, to determine the relative importance of each on future coastal risk. A deep low-pressure system situated to the west of Ireland (WP29) has the highest probability (6.3%) of exceeding Newlyn’s present-day warning threshold; this is projected to increase under climate change to 46.2% by 2050 under RCP2.6. This work found that weather patterns associated with storm surges are increasing and decreasing in frequency; a synoptic situation causing windy conditions in the north of the UK (WP23) will increase by > 40% under RCP8.5 by the end of the century (2079–2090). When combining the impact of sea-level rise and changing frequency of weather patterns, this study found that sea-level rise dominates future coastal risk and is highly linked to the future emission scenarios. The need for successful adaptation, such as coastal defence improvements and early warning systems, will become even more important under the higher emission pathway. The most significant increases in coastal risk are found along the east coast, through the English Channel to the north Devon coastline

Geometrical Insights for Implicit Generative Modeling

Learning algorithms for implicit generative models can optimize a variety of criteria that measure how the data distribution differs from the implicit model distribution, including the Wasserstein distance, the Energy distance, and the Maximum Mean Discrepancy criterion. A careful look at the geometries induced by these distances on the space of probability measures reveals interesting differences. In particular, we can establish surprising approximate global convergence guarantees for the $1$-Wasserstein distance,even when the parametric generator has a nonconvex parametrization.Comment: this version fixes a typo in a definitio

Confirmation of low genetic diversity and multiple breeding females in a social group of Eurasian badgers from microsatellite and field data

The Eurasian badger ( Meles meles ) is a facultatively social carnivore that shows only rudimentary co-operative behaviour and a poorly defined social hierarchy. Behavioural evidence and limited genetic data have suggested that more than one female may breed in a social group. We combine pregnancy detection by ultrasound and microsatellite locus scores from a well-studied badger population from Wytham Woods, Oxfordshire, UK, to demonstrate that multiple females reproduce within a social group. We found that at least three of seven potential mothers reproduced in a group that contained 11 reproductive age females and nine offspring. Twelve primers showed variability across the species range and only five of these were variable in Wytham. The microsatellites showed a reduced repeat number, a significantly higher number of nonperfect repeats, and moderate heterozygosity levels in Wytham. The high frequency of imperfect repeats and demographic phenomena might be responsible for the reduced levels of variability observed in the badger

Haemoglobin mass and running time trial performance after recombinant human erythropoietin administration in trained men

<p>Recombinant human erythropoietin (rHuEpo) increases haemoglobin mass (Hbmass) and maximal oxygen uptake (v˙ O2 max).</p> <p>Purpose: This study defined the time course of changes in Hbmass, v˙ O2 max as well as running time trial performance following 4 weeks of rHuEpo administration to determine whether the laboratory observations would translate into actual improvements in running performance in the field.</p> <p>Methods: 19 trained men received rHuEpo injections of 50 IUNkg21 body mass every two days for 4 weeks. Hbmass was determined weekly using the optimized carbon monoxide rebreathing method until 4 weeks after administration. v˙ O2 max and 3,000 m time trial performance were measured pre, post administration and at the end of the study.</p> <p>Results: Relative to baseline, running performance significantly improved by ,6% after administration (10:3061:07 min:sec vs. 11:0861:15 min:sec, p,0.001) and remained significantly enhanced by ,3% 4 weeks after administration (10:4661:13 min:sec, p,0.001), while v˙ O2 max was also significantly increased post administration (60.765.8 mLNmin21Nkg21 vs. 56.066.2 mLNmin21Nkg21, p,0.001) and remained significantly increased 4 weeks after rHuEpo (58.065.6 mLNmin21Nkg21, p = 0.021). Hbmass was significantly increased at the end of administration compared to baseline (15.261.5 gNkg21 vs. 12.761.2 gNkg21, p,0.001). The rate of decrease in Hbmass toward baseline values post rHuEpo was similar to that of the increase during administration (20.53 gNkg21Nwk21, 95% confidence interval (CI) (20.68, 20.38) vs. 0.54 gNkg21Nwk21, CI (0.46, 0.63)) but Hbmass was still significantly elevated 4 weeks after administration compared to baseline (13.761.1 gNkg21, p<0.001).</p> <p>Conclusion: Running performance was improved following 4 weeks of rHuEpo and remained elevated 4 weeks after administration compared to baseline. These field performance effects coincided with rHuEpo-induced elevated v˙ O2 max and Hbmass.</p&gt

Coupling models of cattle and farms with models of badgers for predicting the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis (TB)

Bovine TB is a major problem for the agricultural industry in several countries. TB can be contracted and spread by species other than cattle and this can cause a problem for disease control. In the UK and Ireland, badgers are a recognised reservoir of infection and there has been substantial discussion about potential control strategies. We present a coupling of individual based models of bovine TB in badgers and cattle, which aims to capture the key details of the natural history of the disease and of both species at approximately county scale. The model is spatially explicit it follows a very large number of cattle and badgers on a different grid size for each species and includes also winter housing. We show that the model can replicate the reported dynamics of both cattle and badger populations as well as the increasing prevalence of the disease in cattle. Parameter space used as input in simulations was swept out using Latin hypercube sampling and sensitivity analysis to model outputs was conducted using mixed effect models. By exploring a large and computationally intensive parameter space we show that of the available control strategies it is the frequency of TB testing and whether or not winter housing is practised that have the most significant effects on the number of infected cattle, with the effect of winter housing becoming stronger as farm size increases. Whether badgers were culled or not explained about 5%, while the accuracy of the test employed to detect infected cattle explained less than 3% of the variance in the number of infected cattle

Physicochemical conditions and timing of rodingite formation: evidence from rodingite-hosted fluid inclusions in the JM Asbestos mine, Asbestos, Québec

Fluid inclusions and geological relationships indicate that rodingite formation in the Asbestos ophiolite, Québec, occurred in two, or possibly three, separate episodes during thrusting of the ophiolite onto the Laurentian margin, and that it involved three fluids. The first episode of rodingitization, which affected diorite, occurred at temperatures of between 290 and 360°C and pressures of 2.5 to 4.5 kbar, and the second episode, which affected granite and slate, occurred at temperatures of between 325 and 400°C and pressures less than 3 kbar. The fluids responsible for these episodes of alteration were moderately to strongly saline (~1.5 to 6.3 m eq. NaCl), rich in divalent cations and contained appreciable methane. A possible third episode of alteration is suggested by primary fluid inclusions in vesuvianite-rich bodies and secondary inclusions in other types of rodingite, with significantly lower trapping temperatures, salinity and methane content. The association of the aqueous fluids with hydrocarbon-rich fluids containing CH4 and higher order alkanes, but no CO2, suggests strongly that the former originated from the serpentinites. The similarities in the composition of the fluids in all rock types indicate that the ophiolite had already been thrust onto the slates when rodingitization occurred

How should performance in EBUS mediastinal staging in lung cancer be measured?

There has been a paradigm shift in mediastinal staging algorithms in non-small cell lung cancer over the last decade in the United Kingdom (UK). This has seen endoscopic nodal staging (predominantly endobronchial ultrasound, EBUS) almost replace surgical staging (predominantly mediastinoscopy) as the pathological staging procedure of first choic