Investigating Bacterial Volatilome for the Classification and Identification of Mycobacterial Species by HS-SPME-GC-MS and Machine Learning.

peer reviewedSpecies of Mycobacteriaceae cause disease in animals and humans, including tuberculosis and leprosy. Individuals infected with organisms in the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) or non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) may present identical symptoms, however the treatment for each can be different. Although the NTM infection is considered less vital due to the chronicity of the disease and the infrequency of occurrence in healthy populations, diagnosis and differentiation among Mycobacterium species currently require culture isolation, which can take several weeks. The use of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is a promising approach for species identification and in recent years has shown promise for use in the rapid analysis of both in vitro cultures as well as ex vivo diagnosis using breath or sputum. The aim of this contribution is to analyze VOCs in the culture headspace of seven different species of mycobacteria and to define the volatilome profiles that are discriminant for each species. For the pre-concentration of VOCs, solid-phase micro-extraction (SPME) was employed and samples were subsequently analyzed using gas chromatography-quadrupole mass spectrometry (GC-qMS). A machine learning approach was applied for the selection of the 13 discriminatory features, which might represent clinically translatable bacterial biomarkers

Volatile organic compound profiling to explore primary graft dysfunction after lung transplantation

Primary graft dysfunction (PGD) is a major determinant of morbidity and mortality following lung transplantation. Delineating basic mechanisms and molecular signatures of PGD remain a fundamental challenge. This pilot study examines if the pulmonary volatile organic compound (VOC) spectrum relate to PGD and postoperative outcomes. The VOC profiles of 58 bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) and blind bronchial aspirate samples from 35 transplant patients were extracted using solid-phase-microextraction and analyzed with comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography coupled to time-of-flight mass spectrometry. The support vector machine algorithm was used to identify VOCs that could differentiate patients with severe from lower grade PGD. Using 20 statistically significant VOCs from the sample headspace collected immediately after transplantation (\u3c 6 h), severe PGD was differentiable from low PGD with an AUROC of 0.90 and an accuracy of 0.83 on test set samples. The model was somewhat effective for later time points with an AUROC of 0.80. Three major chemical classes in the model were dominated by alkylated hydrocarbons, linear hydrocarbons, and aldehydes in severe PGD samples. These VOCs may have important clinical and mechanistic implications, therefore large-scale study and potential translation to breath analysis is recommended

Volatile organic compound profiling to explore primary graft dysfunction after lung transplantation.

peer reviewedPrimary graft dysfunction (PGD) is a major determinant of morbidity and mortality following lung transplantation. Delineating basic mechanisms and molecular signatures of PGD remain a fundamental challenge. This pilot study examines if the pulmonary volatile organic compound (VOC) spectrum relate to PGD and postoperative outcomes. The VOC profiles of 58 bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) and blind bronchial aspirate samples from 35 transplant patients were extracted using solid-phase-microextraction and analyzed with comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography coupled to time-of-flight mass spectrometry. The support vector machine algorithm was used to identify VOCs that could differentiate patients with severe from lower grade PGD. Using 20 statistically significant VOCs from the sample headspace collected immediately after transplantation (< 6 h), severe PGD was differentiable from low PGD with an AUROC of 0.90 and an accuracy of 0.83 on test set samples. The model was somewhat effective for later time points with an AUROC of 0.80. Three major chemical classes in the model were dominated by alkylated hydrocarbons, linear hydrocarbons, and aldehydes in severe PGD samples. These VOCs may have important clinical and mechanistic implications, therefore large-scale study and potential translation to breath analysis is recommended

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050

Background The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020. Methods We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050. Findings In 2019, health spending globally reached$8. 8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval UI] 8.7-8.8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total,$40.4 billion (0.5%, 95% UI 0.5-0.5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24.6% (UI 24.0-25.1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54.8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this,$13.7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12.3 billion was newly committed and$1.4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3.1 billion (22.4$2.4 billion (17.9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714.4 million (7.7$1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied. Interpretation Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Volatile molecules from bronchoalveolar lavage fluid can 'rule-in' Pseudomonas aeruginosa and 'rule-out' Staphylococcus aureus infections in cystic fibrosis patients

Abstract Respiratory infections caused by Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Staphylococcus aureus are the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in cystic fibrosis (CF) patients. The authors aimed to identify volatile biomarkers from bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) samples that can guide breath biomarker development for pathogen identification. BAL samples (n = 154) from CF patients were analyzed using two-dimensional gas chromatography time-of-flight mass spectrometry. Random Forest was used to select suites of volatiles for identifying P. aeruginosa-positive and S. aureus-positive samples using multiple infection scenarios and validated using test sets. Using nine volatile molecules, we differentiated P. aeruginosa-positive (n = 7) from P. aeruginosa-negative (n = 53) samples with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.86 (95% CI 0.71–1.00) and with positive and negative predictive values of 0.67 (95% CI 0.38–0.75) and 0.92 (95% CI 0.88–1.00), respectively. We were also able to discriminate S. aureus-positive (n = 15) from S. aureus-negative (n = 45) samples with an AUROC of 0.88 (95% CI 0.79-1.00) using eight volatiles and with positive and negative predictive values of 0.86 (95% CI 0.61–0.96) and 0.70 (95% CI 0.61–0.75), respectively. Prospective validation of identified biomarkers as screening tools in patient breath may lead to clinical application

VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUND PROFILES OF LUNG FLUIDS FOR PGD DETECTION AND MONITORING

Primary graft dysfunction (PGD) is a major complication following lung transplantation. PGD reflects the summation of injury inflicted on the donor lung by the transplant process including donor related factors, preservation and reperfusion injury, intraoperative factors, and consequences of intensive care management. It is a leading cause of death during the early post-transplant period. PGD is currently define based on the presence of chest infiltrates and the PaO2/FIO2 ratio. Patients are classified in four grades from healthy (0) to severe (3). There has been significant progress in delineating basic mechanisms of PGD and towards identification of genetic or molecular biomarkers capable of predicting, and monitoring PGD. However, continuous method development may provide insight into disease pathogenesis, as well as have prognostic value for predicting the disease trajectory of a patient with PGD