Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality rates in Japan: Contributions of changes in risk factors and evidence-based treatments between 1980 and 2012

Background We aimed to quantify contributions of changes in risks and uptake of evidence-based treatment to coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality trends in Japan between 1980 and 2012. Methods We conducted a modelling study for the general population of Japan aged 35 to 84 years using the validated IMPACT model incorporating data sources like Vital Statistics. The main outcome was difference in the number of observed and expected CHD deaths in 2012. Results From 1980 to 2012, age-adjusted CHD mortality rates in Japan fell by 61%, resulting in 75,700 fewer CHD deaths in 2012 than if the age and sex-specific mortality rates had remained unchanged. Approximately 56% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 54–59%) of the CHD mortality decrease, corresponding to 42,300 (40,900–44,700) fewer CHD deaths, was attributable to medical and surgical treatments. Approximately 35% (28–41%) of the mortality fall corresponding to 26,300 (21,200–31,000) fewer CHD deaths, was attributable to risk factor changes in the population, 24% (20–29%) corresponding to 18,400 (15,100–21,900) fewer and 11% (8–14%) corresponding to 8400 (60,500–10,600) fewer from decreased systolic blood pressure (8.87 mm Hg) and smoking prevalence (14.0%). However, increased levels of cholesterol (0.28 mmol/L), body mass index (BMI) (0.68 kg/m2), and diabetes prevalence (1.6%) attenuated the decrease in mortality by 2% (1–3%), 3% (2–3%), and 4% (1–6%), respectively. Conclusions Japan should continue their control policies for blood pressure and tobacco, and build a strategy to control BMI, diabetes, and cholesterol levels to prevent further CHD deaths

Production and degradation of extracellular matrix in reversible glomerular lesions in rat model of habu snake venom-induced glomerulonephritis

We investigated the mechanism of development and repair process of glomerular injury in a rat model of habu snake (Trimeresurus flavoviridis) venom (HSV)-induced glomerulonephritis. Glomerulonephritis was induced in rats by intravenously injecting HSV at 3 mg/kg. Renal tissue was isolated and subjected to immunohistochemical analysis for expression levels of type IV collagen, heat shock protein 47 (HSP47), transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β), and matrix metalloproteinase-3 (MMP-3), as well as its transcription factor Ets-1. Expression levels of HSP47, TGF-β, and type IV collagen began to increase in the mesangial area starting from day 14 and peaked on day 21, followed by a gradual decrease. Expression levels of MMP-3 and Ets-1 started to increase coinciding with peak production of mesangial matrix on day 21, peaking on day 35, followed by gradual decrease. Expression of MMP-3 and Ets-1 persisted until day 63, whereas that of HSP47 and type IV collagen returned to baseline level at this time point. Time-course changes of extracellular matrix (ECM) accumulation in glomeruli in the HSV-induced glomerulonephritis model were correlated with those of factors involved in both ECM production and degradation systems. Continued expression of factors in the degradation system seems particularly important for the repair process. These findings might lead to new therapies that prevent and repair glomerular injury

Predicting incident heart failure from population-based nationwide electronic health records: protocol for a model development and validation study

Introduction Heart failure (HF) is increasingly common and associated with excess morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs. Treatment of HF can alter the disease trajectory and reduce clinical events in HF. However, many cases of HF remain undetected until presentation with more advanced symptoms, often requiring hospitalisation. Predicting incident HF is challenging and statistical models are limited by performance and scalability in routine clinical practice. An HF prediction model implementable in nationwide electronic health records (EHRs) could enable targeted diagnostics to enable earlier identification of HF.Methods and analysis We will investigate a range of development techniques (including logistic regression and supervised machine learning methods) on routinely collected primary care EHRs to predict risk of new-onset HF over 1, 5 and 10 years prediction horizons. The Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD)-GOLD dataset will be used for derivation (training and testing) and the CPRD-AURUM dataset for external validation. Both comprise large cohorts of patients, representative of the population of England in terms of age, sex and ethnicity. Primary care records are linked at patient level to secondary care and mortality data. The performance of the prediction model will be assessed by discrimination, calibration and clinical utility. We will only use variables routinely accessible in primary care.Ethics and dissemination Permissions for CPRD-GOLD and CPRD-AURUM datasets were obtained from CPRD (ref no: 21_000324). The CPRD ethical approval committee approved the study. The results will be submitted as a research paper for publication to a peer-reviewed journal and presented at peer-reviewed conferences.Trial registration details The study was registered on Clinical Trials.gov (NCT 05756127). A systematic review for the project was registered on PROSPERO (registration number: CRD42022380892)

Holter monitoring for the screening of cardiac disease in diabetes mellitus: The non-invasive Holter monitoring observation of new cardiac events in diabetics study.

We investigated the usefulness of Holter monitoring to detect cardiac disease and predict future cardiovascular risk in asymptomatic diabetic patients. This is a multi-centre, prospective study in 406 asymptomatic diabetic patients. They were categorized into three groups based on findings of Holter monitoring. A total of 377 met inclusion criteria and were classified as low (n = 172), moderate (n = 136) and high risk (n = 69). In total, 86 in moderate and 53 in high risk receive further evaluation. In total, 29 in moderate and 25 in high risk were diagnosed as cardiac disease and 12 required additional treatment, including coronary intervention. Over 1.8 years of mean follow-up, 11 (16.5 per 1000 person-years) experienced cardiovascular events. The cumulative incidence in moderate and high risk was higher than that in low risk (p = 0.029 and p = 0.014, respectively). Our study suggests that Holter monitoring may be a useful screening tool to detect cardiac disease and predict future cardiovascular risk in asymptomatic diabetic patients