Short-term hydrological drought forecasting based on different nature-inspired optimization algorithms hybridized with artificial neural networks

Hydrological drought forecasting plays a substantial role in water resources management. Hydrological drought highly affects the water allocation and hydropower generation. In this research, short term hydrological drought forecasted based on the hybridized of novel nature-inspired optimization algorithms and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). For this purpose, the Standardized Hydrological Drought Index (SHDI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were calculated in one, three, and six aggregated months. Then, three states where proposed for SHDI forecasting, and 36 input-output combinations were extracted based on the cross-correlation analysis. In the next step, newly proposed optimization algorithms, including Grasshopper Optimization Algorithm (GOA), Salp Swarm algorithm (SSA), Biogeography-based optimization (BBO), and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) hybridized with the ANN were utilized for SHDI forecasting and the results compared to the conventional ANN. Results indicated that the hybridized model outperformed compared to the conventional ANN. PSO performed better than the other optimization algorithms. The best models forecasted SHDI1 with R2 = 0.68 and RMSE = 0.58, SHDI3 with R 2 = 0.81 and RMSE = 0.45 and SHDI6 with R 2 = 0.82 and RMSE = 0.40

FCS-MBFLEACH: Designing an Energy-Aware Fault Detection System for Mobile Wireless Sensor Networks

Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) include large-scale sensor nodes that are densely distributed over a geographical region that is completely randomized for monitoring, identifying, and analyzing physical events. The crucial challenge in wireless sensor networks is the very high dependence of the sensor nodes on limited battery power to exchange information wirelessly as well as the non-rechargeable battery of the wireless sensor nodes, which makes the management and monitoring of these nodes in terms of abnormal changes very difficult. These anomalies appear under faults, including hardware, software, anomalies, and attacks by raiders, all of which affect the comprehensiveness of the data collected by wireless sensor networks. Hence, a crucial contraption should be taken to detect the early faults in the network, despite the limitations of the sensor nodes. Machine learning methods include solutions that can be used to detect the sensor node faults in the network. The purpose of this study is to use several classification methods to compute the fault detection accuracy with different densities under two scenarios in regions of interest such as MB-FLEACH, one-class support vector machine (SVM), fuzzy one-class, or a combination of SVM and FCS-MBFLEACH methods. It should be noted that in the study so far, no super cluster head (SCH) selection has been performed to detect node faults in the network. The simulation outcomes demonstrate that the FCS-MBFLEACH method has the best performance in terms of the accuracy of fault detection, false-positive rate (FPR), average remaining energy, and network lifetime compared to other classification methods

Prediction of Thermo-Physical Properties of TiO2-Al2O3/Water Nanoparticles by Using Artificial Neural Network

In this paper, an artificial neural network is implemented for the sake of predicting the thermal conductivity ratio of TiO2-Al2O3/water nanofluid. TiO2-Al2O3/water in the role of an innovative type of nanofluid was synthesized by the sol–gel method. The results indicated that 1.5 vol.% of nanofluids enhanced the thermal conductivity by up to 25%. It was shown that the heat transfer coefficient was linearly augmented with increasing nanoparticle concentration, but its variation with temperature was nonlinear. It should be noted that the increase in concentration may cause the particles to agglomerate, and then the thermal conductivity is reduced. The increase in temperature also increases the thermal conductivity, due to an increase in the Brownian motion and collision of particles. In this research, for the sake of predicting the thermal conductivity of TiO2-Al2O3/water nanofluid based on volumetric concentration and temperature functions, an artificial neural network is implemented. In this way, for predicting thermal conductivity, SOM (self-organizing map) and BP-LM (Back Propagation-Levenberq-Marquardt) algorithms were used. Based on the results obtained, these algorithms can be considered as an exceptional tool for predicting thermal conductivity. Additionally, the correlation coefficient values were equal to 0.938 and 0.98 when implementing the SOM and BP-LM algorithms, respectively, which is highly acceptable. View Full-Tex

Extreme learning machine-based model for solubility estimation of hydrocarbon gases in electrolyte solutions

Calculating hydrocarbon components solubility of natural gases is known as one of the important issues for operational works in petroleum and chemical engineering. In this work, a novel solubility estimation tool has been proposed for hydrocarbon gases—including methane, ethane, propane, and butane—in aqueous electrolyte solutions based on extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm. Comparing the ELM outputs with a comprehensive real databank which has 1175 solubility points yielded R-squared values of 0.985 and 0.987 for training and testing phases respectively. Furthermore, the visual comparison of estimated and actual hydrocarbon solubility led to confirm the ability of proposed solubility model. Additionally, sensitivity analysis has been employed on the input variables of model to identify their impacts on hydrocarbon solubility. Such a comprehensive and reliable study can help engineers and scientists to successfully determine the important thermodynamic properties, which are key factors in optimizing and designing different industrial units such as refineries and petrochemical plants

Predictive Modeling the Free Hydraulic Jumps Pressure through Advanced Statistical Methods

Pressure fluctuations beneath hydraulic jumps potentially endanger the stability of stilling basins. This paper deals with the mathematical modeling of the results of laboratory-scale experiments to estimate the extreme pressures. Experiments were carried out on a smooth stilling basin underneath free hydraulic jumps downstream of an Ogee spillway. From the probability distribution of measured instantaneous pressures, pressures with different probabilities could be determined. It was verified that maximum pressure fluctuations, and the negative pressures, are located at the positions near the spillway toe. Also, minimum pressure fluctuations are located at the downstream of hydraulic jumps. It was possible to assess the cumulative curves of pressure data related to the characteristic points along the basin, and different Froude numbers. To benchmark the results, the dimensionless forms of statistical parameters include mean pressures (P*m), the standard deviations of pressure fluctuations (σ*X), pressures with different non-exceedance probabilities (P*k%), and the statistical coefficient of the probability distribution (Nk%) were assessed. It was found that an existing method can be used to interpret the present data, and pressure distribution in similar conditions, by using a new second-order fractional relationships for σ*X, and Nk%. The values of the Nk% coefficient indicated a single mean value for each probability

Spatial analysis of seasonal precipitation over Iran: Co-variation with climate indices

Temporary changes in precipitation may lead to sustained and severe drought or massive floods in different parts of the world. Knowing the variation in precipitation can effectively help the water resources decision-makers in water resources management. Large-scale circulation drivers have a considerable impact on precipitation in different parts of the world. In this research, the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on seasonal precipitation over Iran was investigated. For this purpose, 103 synoptic stations with at least 30 years of data were utilized. The Spearman correlation coefficient between the indices in the previous 12 months with seasonal precipitation was calculated, and the meaningful correlations were extracted. Then, the month in which each of these indices has the highest correlation with seasonal precipitation was determined. Finally, the overall amount of increase or decrease in seasonal precipitation due to each of these indices was calculated. Results indicate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), NAO, and PDO have the most impact on seasonal precipitation, respectively. Additionally, these indices have the highest impact on the precipitation in winter, autumn, spring, and summer, respectively. SOI has a diverse impact on winter precipitation compared to the PDO and NAO, while in the other seasons, each index has its special impact on seasonal precipitation. Generally, all indices in different phases may decrease the seasonal precipitation up to 100%. However, the seasonal precipitation may increase more than 100% in different seasons due to the impact of these indices. The results of this study can be used effectively in water resources management and especially in dam operation

Estimating longitudinal dispersion coefficient in natural streams using empirical models and machine learning algorithms

The longitudinal dispersion coefficient (LDC) plays an important role in modeling the transport of pollutants and sediment in natural rivers. As a result of transportation processes, the concentration of pollutants changes along the river. Various studies have been conducted to provide simple equations for estimating LDC. In this study, machine learning methods, namely support vector regression, Gaussian process regression, M5 model tree (M5P) and random forest, and multiple linear regression were examined in predicting the LDC in natural streams. Data sets from 60 rivers around the world with different hydraulic and geometric features were gathered to develop models for LDC estimation. Statistical criteria, including correlation coefficient (CC), root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), were used to scrutinize the models. The LDC values estimated by these models were compared with the corresponding results of common empirical models. The Taylor chart was used to evaluate the models and the results showed that among the machine learning models, M5P had superior performance, with CC of 0.823, RMSE of 454.9 and MAE of 380.9. The model of Sahay and Dutta, with CC of 0.795, RMSE of 460.7 and MAE of 306.1, gave more precise results than the other empirical models. The main advantage of M5P models is their ability to provide practical formulae. In conclusion, the results proved that the developed M5P model with simple formulations was superior to other machine learning models and empirical models; therefore, it can be used as a proper tool for estimating the LDC in rivers