Uncovering the heterogeneity and temporal complexity of neurodegenerative diseases with Subtype and Stage Inference

The heterogeneity of neurodegenerative diseases is a key confound to disease understanding and treatment development, as study cohorts typically include multiple phenotypes on distinct disease trajectories. Here we introduce a machine-learning technique\u2014Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn)\u2014able to uncover data-driven disease phenotypes with distinct temporal progression patterns, from widely available cross-sectional patient studies. Results from imaging studies in two neurodegenerative diseases reveal subgroups and their distinct trajectories of regional neurodegeneration. In genetic frontotemporal dementia, SuStaIn identifies genotypes from imaging alone, validating its ability to identify subtypes; further the technique reveals within-genotype heterogeneity. In Alzheimer\u2019s disease, SuStaIn uncovers three subtypes, uniquely characterising their temporal complexity. SuStaIn provides fine-grained patient stratification, which substantially enhances the ability to predict conversion between diagnostic categories over standard models that ignore subtype (p = 7.18 7 10 124 ) or temporal stage (p = 3.96 7 10 125 ). SuStaIn offers new promise for enabling disease subtype discovery and precision medicine

A century of trends in adult human height

Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5-22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3-19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8-144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities 1,2 . This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity 3�6 . Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55 of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017�and more than 80 in some low- and middle-income regions�was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing�and in some countries reversal�of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories. © 2019, The Author(s)

Anti-Mullerian hormone and endometrial cancer: A multi-cohort study

Background: TheMullerian ducts are the embryological precursors of the female reproductive tract, including the uterus; anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) has a key role in the regulation of foetal sexual differentiation. Anti-Mullerian hormone inhibits endometrial tumour growth in experimental models by stimulating apoptosis and cell cycle arrest. To date, there are no prospective epidemiologic data on circulating AMH and endometrial cancer risk. Methods: We investigated this association among women premenopausal at blood collection in a multicohort study including participants from eight studies located in the United States, Europe, and China. We identified 329 endometrial cancer cases and 339 matched controls. Anti- Mullerian hormone concentrations in blood were quantified using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) across tertiles and for a doubling of AMH concentrations (ORlog2). Subgroup analyses were performed by ages at blood donation and diagnosis, oral contraceptive use, and tumour characteristics. Results: Anti-Mullerian hormone was not associated with the risk of endometrial cancer overall (ORlog2: 1.07 (0.99-1.17)), or with any of the examined subgroups. Conclusions: Although experimental models implicate AMH in endometrial cancer growth inhibition, our findings do not support a role for circulating AMH in the aetiology of endometrial cancer. © 2017 Cancer Research UK. All Rights Reserved

Anti-CA15.3 and Anti-CA125 Antibodies and ovarian cancer risk: Results from the EPIC cohort

Background: Neoplastic and non-neoplastic events may raise levels of mucins, CA15.3, and CA125, and generate antibodies against them, but their impact on epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) risk has not been fully defined. Methods: CA15.3, CA125, and IgG1 antibodies against them were measured in 806 women who developed EOC and 1,927 matched controls from the European Prospective Investigation of Nutrition and Cancer. Associations between epidemiologic factors and anti-mucin antibodies were evaluated using generalized linear models; EOC risks associated with anti-mucin antibodies, by themselves or in combination with respective antigens, were evaluated using conditional logistic regression. Results: In controls, lower antibodies against both mucins were associated with current smoking; and, in postmenopausal women, higher levels with longer oral contraceptive use and later-age-at and shorter-interval-since last birth. Lower anti-CA15.3 antibodies were associated with higher body mass and, in premenopausal women, more ovulatory cycles. Higher anti-CA15.3 and anti-CA125 antibodies were associated with higher risk for mucinous EOC occurring ≥ 3 years from enrollment. Long-term risk for serous EOC was reduced in women with low CA125 and high anti-CA125 antibodies relative to women with low concentrations of both. Conclusions: We found general support for the hypothesis that anti-mucin antibody levels correlate with risk factors for EOC. Antibodies alone or in combinations with their antigen may predict longer term risk of specific EOC types. Impact: Anti-CA125 and anti-CA15.3 antibodies alone or in perspective of antigens may be informative in the pathogenesis of EOC subtypes, but less useful for informing risk for all EOC. © 2018 American Association for Cancer Research

Prospective analysis of circulating metabolites and breast cancer in EPIC

Background: Metabolomics is a promising molecular tool to identify novel etiologic pathways leading to cancer. Using a targeted approach, we prospectively investigated the associations between metabolite concentrations in plasma and breast cancer risk. Methods: A nested case-control study was established within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer cohort, which included 1624 first primary incident invasive breast cancer cases (with known estrogen and progesterone receptor and HER2 status) and 1624 matched controls. Metabolites (n = 127, acylcarnitines, amino acids, biogenic amines, glycerophospholipids, hexose, sphingolipids) were measured by mass spectrometry in pre-diagnostic plasma samples and tested for associations with breast cancer incidence using multivariable conditional logistic regression. Results: Among women not using hormones at baseline (n = 2248), and after control for multiple tests, concentrations of arginine (odds ratio [OR] per SD = 0.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.70-0.90), asparagine (OR = 0.83 (0.74-0.92)), and phosphatidylcholines (PCs) ae C36:3 (OR = 0.83 (0.76-0.90)), aa C36:3 (OR = 0.84 (0.77-0.93)), ae C34:2 (OR = 0.85 (0.78-0.94)), ae C36:2 (OR = 0.85 (0.78-0.88)), and ae C38:2 (OR = 0.84 (0.76-0.93)) were inversely associated with breast cancer risk, while the acylcarnitine C2 (OR = 1.23 (1.11-1.35)) was positively associated with disease risk. In the overall population, C2 (OR = 1.15 (1.06-1.24)) and PC ae C36:3 (OR = 0.88 (0.82-0.95)) were associated with risk of breast cancer, and these relationships did not differ by breast cancer subtype, age at diagnosis, fasting status, menopausal status, or adiposity. Conclusions: These findings point to potentially novel pathways and biomarkers of breast cancer development. Results warrant replication in other epidemiological studies. © 2019 The Author(s)