Linking thermal variability and change to urban growth in Harare Metropolitan City using remotely sensed data.

Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Science. University of KwaZulu-Natal. Pietermaritzburg, 2017.Urban growth, which involves Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC), alters land surface thermal properties. Within the framework of rapid urban growth and global warming, land surface temperature (LST) and its elevation have potential significant socio-economic and environmental implications. Hence the main objectives of this study were to (i) map urban growth, (ii) link urban growth with indoor and outdoor thermal conditions and (iii) estimate implications of thermal trends on household energy consumption as well as predict future urban growth and temperature patterns in Harare Metropolitan, Zimbabwe. To achieve these objectives, broadband multi-spectral Landsat 5, 7 and 8, in-situ LULC observations, air temperature (Ta) and humidity data were integrated. LULC maps were obtained from multi-spectral remote sensing data and derived indices using the Support Vector Machine Algorithm, while LST were derived by applying single channel and split window algorithms. To improve remote sensing based urban growth mapping, a method of combining multi-spectral reflective data with thermal data and vegetation indices was tested. Vegetation indices were also combined with socio-demographic data to map the spatial distribution of heat vulnerability in Harare. Changes in outdoor human thermal discomfort in response to seasonal LULCC were evaluated, using the Discomfort Index (DI) derived parsimoniously from LST retrieved from Landsat 8 data. Responses of LST to long term urban growth were analysed for the period from 1984 to 2015. The implications of urban growth induced temperature changes on household air-conditioning energy demand were analysed using Landsat derived land surface temperature based Degree Days. Finally, the Cellular Automata Markov Chain (CAMC) analysis was used to predict future landscape transformation at 10-year time steps from 2015 to 2045. Results showed high overall accuracy of 89.33% and kappa index above 0.86 obtained, using Landsat 8 bands and indices. Similar results were observed when indices were used as stand-alone dataset (above 80%). Landsat 8 derived bio-physical surface properties and socio-demographic factors, showed that heat vulnerability was high in over 40% in densely built-up areas with low-income when compared to “leafy” suburbs. A strong spatial correlation (α = 0.61) between heat vulnerability and surface temperatures in the hot season was obtained, implying that LST is a good indicator of heat vulnerability in the area. LST based discomfort assessment approach retrieved DI with high accuracy as indicated by mean percentage error of less than 20% for each sub-season. Outdoor thermal discomfort was high in hot dry season (mean DI of 31oC), while the post rainy season was the most comfortable (mean DI of 19.9oC). During the hot season, thermal discomfort was very low in low density residential areas, which are characterised by forests and well maintained parks (DI ≤27oC). Long term changes results showed that high density residential areas increased by 92% between 1984 and 2016 at the expense of cooler green-spaces, which decreased by 75.5%, translating to a 1.98oC mean surface temperature increase. Due to surface alterations from urban growth between 1984 and 2015, LST increased by an average of 2.26oC and 4.10oC in the cool and hot season, respectively. This decreased potential indoor heating energy needed in the cool season by 1 degree day and increased indoor cooling energy during the hot season by 3 degree days. Spatial analysis showed that during the hot season, actual energy consumption was low in high temperature zones. This coincided with areas occupied by low income strata indicating that they do not afford as much energy and air conditioning facilities as expected. Besides quantifying and strongly relating with energy requirement, degree days provided a quantitative measure of heat vulnerability in Harare. Testing vegetation indices for predictive power showed that the Urban Index (UI) was comparatively the best predictor of future urban surface temperature (r = 0.98). The mean absolute percentage error of the UI derived temperature was 5.27% when tested against temperature derived from thermal band in October 2015. Using UI as predictor variable in CAMC analysis, we predicted that the low surface temperature class (18-28oC) will decrease in coverage, while the high temperature category (36-45oC) will increase in proportion covered from 42.5 to 58% of city, indicating further warming as the city continues to grow between 2015 and 2040. Overall, the findings of this study showed that LST, human thermal comfort and air-conditioning energy demand are strongly affected by seasonal and urban growth induced land cover changes. It can be observed that urban greenery and wetlands play a significant role of reducing LST and heat transfer between the surface and lower atmosphere and LST may continue unless effective mitigation strategies, such as effective vegetation cover spatial configuration are adopted. Limitations to the study included inadequate spatial and low temporal resolution of Landsat data, few in-situ observations of temperature and LULC classification which was area specific thus difficult for global comparison. Recommendations for future studies included data merging to improve spatial and temporal representation of remote sensing data, resource mobilization to increase urban weather station density and image classification into local climate zones which are of easy global interpretation and comparison

The impact of land-use/land cover changes on water balance of the heterogeneous Buzi sub-catchment, Zimbabwe

The nature of interactions between ecological, physical and hydrological characteristics that determine the effects of land cover change on surface and sub-surface hydrology is not well understood in both natural and disturbed environments. The spatiotemporal dynamics of water fluxes and their relationship with land cover changes between 2009 and 2017 in the headwater Buzi sub-catchment in Zimbabwe is evaluated. To achieve this, land cover dynamics for the area under study were characterised from the 30 m Landsat data, using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm. After the land cover classification, the key water balance components namely; interception, transpiration and evapotranspiration (ET) contributions for each class in 2009 and 2017 were estimated. Image classification of Landsat data achieved good overall accuracies above 80% for the two periods. Results showed that the percentage of the plantation land cover types decreased slightly between 2009 (25.4%) and 2017 (22.5%). Partitioning the annual interception, transpiration and ET according to land cover classes showed that the highest amounts of ET in the basin were from plantation where land cover types with tea had the highest interception, transpiration and ET in the catchment. Higher ET, interception and transpiration were observed in the eastern parts of the catchment. At catchment level, results show that 2017 had a higher water balance than 2009, which was partly explained by the decrease in plantation cover type

Pansharpened landsat 8 thermal-infrared data for improved land surface temperature characterization in a heterogeneous urban landscape

Challenges associated with adolescents are prevalent in South African societies. During the adolescence stage, children may become involved in deviant behaviour. Although a significant number of studies have focused on the factors that contribute to adolescents’ deviant behaviour, including parental factors, there is paucity of research specifically in rural communities. This study explores the contribution of parental factors to adolescents’ deviant behaviour in rural communities in South Africa. Guided by the qualitative approach, the present study makes use of semi-structured interviews to collect data and thematic analysis to analyse data

Impacts of the spatial configuration of built-up areas and urban vegetation on land surface temperature using spectral and local spatial autocorrelation indices

Understanding how the spatial configuration of land cover patterns of built-up areas and urban vegetation affect urban surface temperatures is crucial for improving the sustainability of cities as well as optimizing urban design and landscape planning. Because of their capability to detect distinct surface thermal features, satellite data have proved useful in exploring the impacts of spatial configuration of land cover on land surface temperature (LST). In this study, we examine how the spatial configuration of built-up and urban vegetation affects the LST in the Harare metropolitan city, Zimbabwe. In order to achieve this objective, we combined the LST, local spatial statistics of Getis-Ord Gi* and local Moran’s I statistic, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Normalized Difference Built-Up Index (NDBI) derived from multi-date Landsat satellite data (1994, 2001 and 2017

Impacts of Drought on Vegetation Assessed by Vegetation Indices and Meteorological Factors in Afghanistan

Publisher's version (útgefin grein)Drought has severe impacts on human society and ecosystems. In this study, we used data acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) sensors to examine the drought effects on vegetation in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2018. The MODIS data included the 16-day 250-m composites of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) with Land Surface Temperature (LST) images with 1 km resolution. The TRMM data were monthly rainfalls with 0.1-degree resolution. The relationship between drought and index-defined vegetation variation was examined by using time series, regression analysis, and anomaly calculation. The results showed that the vegetation coverage for the whole country, reaching the lowest levels of 6.2% and 5.5% were observed in drought years 2001 and 2008, respectively. However, there is a huge inter-regional variation in vegetation coverage in the study period with a significant rising trend in Helmand Watershed with R = 0.66 (p value = 0.05). Based on VCI for the same two years (2001 and 2008), 84% and 72% of the country were subject to drought conditions, respectively. Coherently, TRMM data confirm that 2001 and 2008 were the least rainfall years of 108 and 251 mm, respectively. On the other hand, years 2009 and 2010 were registered with the largest vegetation coverage of 16.3% mainly due to lower annual LST than average LST of 14 degrees and partially due to their slightly higher annual rainfalls of 378 and 425 mm, respectively, than the historical average of 327 mm. Based on the derived VCI, 28% and 21% of the study area experienced drought conditions in 2009 and 2010, respectively. It is also found that correlations are relatively high between NDVI and VCI (r = 0.77, p = 0.0002), but slightly lower between NDVI and precipitation (r = 0.51, p = 0.03). In addition, LST played a key role in influencing the value of NDVI. However, both LST and precipitation must be considered together in order to properly capture the correlation between drought and NDVI.Y.A.L. appreciates the financial support from MOST of Taiwan under the codes 108–2111-M-008-036-MY2 and 108–2923-M-008-002-MY3.Peer Reviewe

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Land Use/Land Cover and Its Effects on Surface Urban Heat Island Using Landsat Data: A Case Study of Metropolitan City Tehran (1988–2018)

This article summarized the spatiotemporal pattern of land use/land cover (LU/LC) and urban heat island (UHI) dynamics in the Metropolitan city of Tehran between 1988 and 2018. The study showed dynamics of each LU/LC class and their role in influencing the UHI. The impervious surface area expanded by 286.04 (48.27% of total land) and vegetated land was depleted by 42.06 km2 (7.10% of total land) during the period of 1988–2018. The mean land surface temperature (LST) has enlarged by approximately 2–3 °C at the city center and 5–7 °C at the periphery between 1988 and 2018 based on the urban–rural gradient analysis. The lower mean LST was experienced by vegetation land (VL) and water body (WB) by approximately 4–5 °C and 5–7 °C, respectively, and the higher mean LST by open land (OL) by 7–11 °C than other LU/LC classes at all time-points during the time period, 1988–2018. The magnitude of mean LST was calculated based on the main LU/LC categories, where impervious land (IL) recorded the higher temperature difference compared to vegetation land (VL) and water bodies (WB). However, open land (OL) recorded the highest mean LST differences with all the other LU/LC categories. In addition to that, there was an overall negative correlation between LST and the normal difference vegetation index (NDVI). By contrast, there was an overall positive correlation between LST and the normal difference built-up index (NDBI). This article, executed through three decadal change analyses from 1988 to 2018 at 10-year intervals, has made a significant contribution to delineating the long records of change dynamics and could have a great influence on policy making to foster environmental sustainability

“Cool” Roofs as a Heat-Mitigation Measure in Urban Heat Islands: A Comparative Analysis Using Sentinel 2 and Landsat Data

Urban growth, characterized by expansion of impervious at the cost of the natural landscape, causes warming and heat-related distress. Specifically, an increase in the number of buildings within an urban landscape causes intensification of heat islands, necessitating promotion of cool roofs to mitigate Urban Heat Islands (UHI) and associated impacts. In this study, we used the freely available Sentinel 2 and Landsat 8 data to determine the study area’s Land Use Land Covers (LULCs), roof colours and Land Surface Temperature (LST) at a 10-m spatial resolution. Support Vector Machines (SVM) classification algorithm was adopted to derive the study area’s roof colours and proximal LULCs, and the Transformed Divergence Separability Index (TDSI) based on Jeffries Mathussitta distance analysis was used to determine the variability in LULCs and roof colours. To effectively relate the Landsat 8 thermal characteristics to the LULCs and roof colours, the Gram–Schmidt technique was used to pan-sharpen the 30-m Landsat 8 image data to 10 m. Results show that Sentinel 2 mapped LULCs with over 75% accuracy. Pan-sharpening the 30-m-resolution thermal data to 10 m improved the spatial resolution and quality of the Land Surface map and the correlation between LST and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) used as proxy for LULC. Green-colour roofs were the warmest, followed by red roofs, while blue roofs were the coolest. Generally, black roofs in the study area were cool. The study recommends the need to incorporate other roofing properties, such as shape, and further split the colours into different shades. Furthermore, the study recommends the use of very high spatial resolution data to determine roof colour and their respective properties; these include data derived from sensors mounted on aerial platforms such as drones and aircraft. The study concludes that with appropriate analytical techniques, freely available image data can be integrated to determine the implication of roof colouring on urban thermal characteristics, useful for mitigating the effects of Urban Heat Islands and climate change

Controls of Land Surface Temperature between and within Local Climate Zones: A Case Study of Harare in Zimbabwe

Urban growth-related changes in land use and land cover have segmented urban areas into zones of distinct surface and air temperatures (i.e., Local Climate Zones—LCZ). While studies have revealed inter-LCZ temperature variations, understanding controls of variations in Land Surface Temperature (LST) within LCZs has largely remained uninvestigated. In view of the need for LCZ-specific heat mitigation strategies, this study investigated factors driving LST variations within LCZs. To achieve this, an LCZ map for Harare was developed and correlated with LST, both derived using Landsat 8 data. The contribution index (CI) was then used to determine the relative contribution of LCZs to cooling and warming of the city. The contribution of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Bareness Index (NDBaI), Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI), Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI), Urban Index (UI), and Aspect and Elevation as quantitative measures of surface controls of LST were investigated between and within LCZs. LST generally increased with built-up density and reduced with increases in surface water and vegetation. The study showed that the cooling effect of water bodies was reduced in contribution to their insignificant proportion of the study area. At the city scale, NDVI, MNDWI, NDBI, and UI had the strongest influence on LST (correlation coefficient > 0.5). At the intra-LCZ scale, the contribution of these surface properties remained significant, though to varied extents. The study concluded that surface wetness is a significant cooling determinant in densely built-up LCZs, while in other LCZs, it combines with vegetation abundance and health to mitigate elevated surface temperature. Aspect and elevation had low but significant correlations with LST in most LCZs. The study recommends that intra-LCZ controls of LST must be considered in heat mitigation efforts

Adaptation to drought in arid and semi-arid environments: Case of the Zambezi Valley, Zimbabwe

Small-scale rain-fed agriculture is the main livelihood in arid to semi-arid regions of subSaharan Africa. The area is characterised by erratic rainfall and frequent droughts, making the capacity for coping with temporal water shortages essential for smallholder farmers. Focusing on the Zambezi Valley, Zimbabwe, this study investigates the impact of drought on food security and the strategies used by smallholder farmers to cope with drought. We used meteorological data and interviews to examine the rainfall variability in the study area and the drought-coping mechanisms employed by smallholder famers respectively. The results show that there are various strategies used by smallholder farmers to cope with the impact of drought. These strategies include drought-tolerant crop production, crop variety diversification, purchasing cereals through asset sales, non-governmental organisations’ food aid and gathering wild fruit. However, consecutive droughts have resulted in high food insecurity and depletion of household assets during droughts. Smallholder farmers in the valley have also resorted to a number of measures taken before, during and after the drought. Still, these strategies are not robust enough to cope with this uncertaint

Examining the prospects of sentinel-2 multispectral data in detecting and mapping maize streak virus severity in smallholder Ofcolaco farms, South Africa

Crop diseases monitoring is critical in understanding the effects of diseases on crop production and associated implications on food security. The aim of this study was to assess the utility of the 10 m resolution Sentinel 2 data set, in detecting and mapping Maize Streak Virus (MSV) disease in Ofcolaco farms in Tzaneen, South Africa. Specifically, the study sought to spectrally discriminate and map maize infected with MSV from other land-cover classes. To achieve this objective two analysis approaches were used: spectral analysis (Test I: spectral bands; Test II: spectral bands + spectral vegetation indices) using random forest algorithm in a supervised classification approach. The indices combined with spectral bands were EVI, SAVI, NDVI, GNDVI, GLI and MSAVI. Results indicated that infected maize was highly separable from health maize and other land cover classes (TDSI > 1.8). The mapping accuracy was high using spectral data (Overall accuracy = 85.29% and Kappa = 0.79) and even higher when spectral bands were combined with derived vegetation indices (Overall accuracy = 89.43% and Kappa = 0.84). The results of the study show that the 10 m resolution multispectral Sentinel 2 data set can be used to detect and map maize infected by MSV. The findings are important in showing the value of combining 10 m spectral data with derived indices from Sentinel 2 in improving monitoring of maize steak virus in resource-constrained nations