Achieving UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets for pregnant and postpartum women in sub-Saharan Africa: progress, gaps and research needs

The implementation of the 2013 World Health Organization Option B+ recommendations for HIV treatment during pregnancy has helped drive significant progress in achieving universal treatment for pregnant and postpartum women in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Yet, critical research and implementation gaps exist in achieving the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets. To help guide researchers, programmers and policymakers in prioritising these areas, we undertook a comprehensive review of the progress, gaps and research needs to achieve the 90-90-90 targets for this population in the Option B+ era, including early infant HIV diagnosis (EID) for HIV-exposed infants. Salient areas where progress has been achieved or where gaps remain include: (1) knowledge of HIV status is higher among people with HIV in southern and eastern Africa compared to western and central Africa (81% versus 48%, UNAIDS); (2) access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) for pregnant women has doubled in 22 of 42 SSA countries, but only six have achieved the second 90, and nearly a quarter of pregnant women initiating ART become lost to follow-up; (3) viral suppression data for this population are sparse (estimates range from 30% to 98% peripartum), with only half of women maintaining suppression through 12 months postpartum; and (4) EID rates range from 15% to 62%, with only three of 21 high-burden SSA countries testing >50% HIV-exposed infants within the first 2 months of life. We have identified and outlined promising innovations and research designed to address these gaps and improve the health of pregnant and postpartum women living with HIV and their infants

Estimating PMTCT's Impact on Heterosexual HIV Transmission: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis

Introduction Prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) strategies include combined short-course antiretrovirals during pregnancy (Option A), triple-drug antiretroviral treament (ART) during pregnancy and breastfeeding (Option B), or lifelong ART (Option B+). The WHO also recommends ART for HIV treatment and prevention of sexual transmission of HIV. The impact of PMTCT strategies on prevention of sexual HIV transmission of HIV is not known. We estimated the population-level impact of PMTCT interventions on heterosexual HIV transmission in southwestern Uganda and KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, two regions with different HIV prevalence and fertility rates. Materials and Methods We constructed and validated dynamic, stochastic, network-based HIV transmission models for each region. PMTCT Options A, B, and B+ were simulated over ten years under three scenarios: 1) current ART and PMTCT coverage, 2) current ART and high PMTCT coverage, and 3) high ART and PMTCT coverage. We compared adult HIV incidence after ten years of each intervention to Option A (and current ART) at current coverage. Results At current coverage, Options B and B+ reduced heterosexual HIV incidence by about 5% and 15%, respectively, in both countries. With current ART and high PMTCT coverage, Option B+ reduced HIV incidence by 35% in Uganda and 19% in South Africa, while Option B had smaller, but meaningful, reductions. The greatest reductions in HIV incidence were achieved with high ART and PMTCT coverage. In this scenario, all PMTCT strategies yielded similar results. Discussion Implementation of Options B/B+ reduces adult HIV incidence, with greater effect (relative to Option A at current levels) in Uganda than South Africa. These results are likely driven by Uganda’s higher fertility rates

Analysis of Heavy Rainfall in Sub-Saharan Africa and HIV Transmission Risk, HIV Prevalence, and Sexually Transmitted Infections, 2005-2017

Importance Extreme precipitation, including heavy rains and flooding, is associated with poor health outcomes mediated in part by decreases in income and food production. However, the association between heavy rains and HIV burden is unknown. Objective To investigate the association between heavy rainfall, HIV prevalence, and HIV transmission risk over a 12-year span in sub-Saharan Africa. Design, Setting, and Participants A cross-sectional population-based study, using data collected from the 2005-2017 Demographic and Health Surveys, was conducted in 21 countries in sub-Saharan Africa and analyzed from July 29, 2021, to June 14, 2022. Exposures Heavy rainfall was defined based on the extent to which annual rainfall deviated from the historical average (standardized precipitation index ≥1.5) at the enumeration area level. Main Outcomes and Measures HIV, self-reported sexually transmitted infections (STIs), and number of sexual partners. Results The study included 288 333 participants aged 15 to 59 years; 172 344 were women (59.8%), and 183 378 were married (63.6%). Mean (SD) age was 31.9 (10.0) years. Overall, 42.4% of participants were exposed to at least 1 year of heavy rainfall in the past 10 years. Each year of heavy rainfall was associated with 1.14 (95% CI, 1.11-1.18) times the odds of HIV infection and 1.11 (95% CI, 1.07-1.15) times the odds of an STI in the past 12 months. There was also an association between heavy rainfall and the reported number of sexual partners (incident rate ratio, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.10-1.15). The odds were greater for the association between heavy rainfall and HIV prevalence and STIs among participants aged older than 20 years and participants in rural areas. Conclusions and Relevance The findings of this study suggest that heavy rainfall was associated with a higher HIV burden in sub-Saharan Africa. The association between heavy rainfall and STIs and number of sexual partners suggests that an increase in the risk of sexual transmission is a plausible mechanism for the observed findings around HIV prevalence. Heavy rainfall could also worsen food insecurity, increasing the risk of transactional sex, or cause damage to public health infrastructure, reducing access to STI education, HIV testing, and treatment

Prevalence and outcomes of HIV-1 diagnostic challenges during universal birth testing – an urban South African observational cohort

IINTRODUCTION : HIV-1 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing at birth aims to facilitate earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV-infected neonates. Data from two years of universal birth testing implementation in a high-burden South African urban setting are presented to demonstrate the prevalence and outcomes of diagnostic challenges in this context. METHODS : HIV-exposed neonates born at Rahima Moosa Mother and Child Hospital between 5 June 2014 and 31 August 2016 were routinely screened at birth for HIV-1 on whole blood samples using the COBAS® AmpliPrep/COBAS® TaqMan (CAP/CTM) HIV-1 Qualitative Test, version 2.0 (Roche Molecular Systems, Inc., Branchburg, NJ, USA). Virological results were interpreted according to standard operating procedures with the South African National Health Laboratory Service. All neonates with non-negative results were actively followed-up and categorized according to HIV infection status as positive, negative, uncertain and lost to follow-up (LTFU). RESULTS : 104 (1.8%) of 5743 HIV-exposed neonates received a non-negative birth PCR result, for which laboratory data were available for 102 (98%) cases – 78 (76%) tested positive and 24 (24%) indeterminate. HIV infection status was confirmed positive in 83 (81%) infants, negative in 8 (8%), uncertain in 5 (5%) and LTFU in 6 (6%) cases. The positive predictive value (excluding cases of uncertain diagnosis and inadequate testing) following a non-negative HIV-1 PCR screening test at birth was 0.91 (83/91; 95% confidence interval: 0.85–0.96). Neonates testing positive at birth had significantly higher viral load (VL) results than those testing indeterminate at birth of 4.5 and 3.0 log copies/ml (p = 0.0007), respectively. Similarly, mothers of neonates with positive as compared to indeterminate birth test results had higher VLs of 4.5 and 2.7 log copies/ml (p = 0.0013), respectively. Half of neonates with an indeterminate birth test were shown to be HIV-infected on subsequent confirmatory testing, with time to final diagnosis 30 days longer for these neonates (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION : Indeterminate HIV-1 PCR results accounted for a quarter of non-negative results at birth and were associated with a high risk of infection in comparison to the risk of in utero transmission. Indeterminate birth results with positive HIV PCR results on repeat testing were associated with later final diagnosis. The HIV-1 status remains uncertain in a minority of cases because of repeatedly indeterminate results, highlighting the need for more sensitive and specific virological tests.The National Institutes of Health U01 HD080441, PEPfAR/USAID and UNICEF.http://www.jiasociety.orgam2017Medical Virolog

Household-based HIV counseling and testing as a platform for referral to HIV care and medical male circumcision in Uganda: a pilot evaluation.

Combination HIV prevention initiatives incorporate evidence-based, biomedical and behavioral interventions appropriate and acceptable to specific populations, aiming to significantly reduce population-level HIV incidence. Knowledge of HIV serostatus is key to linkages to HIV care and prevention. Household-based HIV counseling and testing (HBCT) can achieve high HIV testing rates. We evaluated HBCT as a platform for delivery of combination HIV prevention services in sub-Saharan Africa.We conducted HBCT in a semi-urban area in southwestern Uganda. All adults received standard HIV prevention messaging. Real-time electronic data collection included a brief risk assessment and prevention triage algorithm for referrals of HIV seropositive persons to HIV care and uncircumcised HIV seronegative men with multiple sex partners to male circumcision. Monthly follow-up visits for 3 months were conducted to promote uptake of HIV care and male circumcision.855 households received HBCT; 1587 of 1941 (81.8%) adults were present at the HBCT visit, 1557 (98.1% of those present) were tested and received HIV results, of whom, 46.5% were men. A total of 152 (9.8%) were HIV seropositive, for whom the median CD4 count was 456 cells/µL, and 50.7% were newly-identified as HIV seropositive. Three months after HBCT, 88.5% of HIV seropositive persons had attended an HIV care clinic; among those with CD4 counts <250 cells/µL, 71.4% initiated antiretroviral therapy. Among 123 HIV seronegative men with an HIV+ partner or multiple partners, 62.0% were circumcised by month 3.HBCT achieves high levels of knowledge of HIV serostatus and is an effective platform for identifying at-risk persons and achieving higher uptake of HIV prevention and care services through referrals and targeted follow-up than has been accomplished through other single focus strategies

Achieving UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets for pregnant and postpartum women in sub-Saharan Africa: progress, gaps and research needs.

The implementation of the 2013 World Health Organization Option B+ recommendations for HIV treatment during pregnancy has helped drive significant progress in achieving universal treatment for pregnant and postpartum women in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Yet, critical research and implementation gaps exist in achieving the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets. To help guide researchers, programmers and policymakers in prioritising these areas, we undertook a comprehensive review of the progress, gaps and research needs to achieve the 90-90-90 targets for this population in the Option B+ era, including early infant HIV diagnosis (EID) for HIV-exposed infants. Salient areas where progress has been achieved or where gaps remain include: (1) knowledge of HIV status is higher among people with HIV in southern and eastern Africa compared to western and central Africa (81% versus 48%, UNAIDS); (2) access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) for pregnant women has doubled in 22 of 42 SSA countries, but only six have achieved the second 90, and nearly a quarter of pregnant women initiating ART become lost to follow-up; (3) viral suppression data for this population are sparse (estimates range from 30% to 98% peripartum), with only half of women maintaining suppression through 12 months postpartum; and (4) EID rates range from 15% to 62%, with only three of 21 high-burden SSA countries testing &gt;50% HIV-exposed infants within the first 2 months of life. We have identified and outlined promising innovations and research designed to address these gaps and improve the health of pregnant and postpartum women living with HIV and their infants

Modeling HIV disease progression and transmission at population-level: The potential impact of modifying disease progression in HIV treatment programs

Introduction: Mathematical models that incorporate HIV disease progression dynamics can estimate the potential impact of strategies that delay HIV disease progression and reduce infectiousness for persons not on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Suppressive treatment of HIV-positive persons co-infected with herpes simplex virus-2 (HSV-2) with valacyclovir, an HSV-2 antiviral, can lower HIV viral load, but the impact of partially-suppressive valacyclovir relative to fully-suppressive ART on population HIV transmission has not been estimated. Methods: We modeled HIV disease progression as a function of changes in viral load and CD4 count over time among ART naïve persons. The disease progression Markov model was nested within a dynamic model of HIV transmission at population level. We assumed that valacyclovir reduced HIV viral load by 1.23 log copies/μL, and that persons treated with valacyclovir initiated ART more rapidly when their CD4 fell below 500 due to retention in HIV care. We estimated the potential impact of valacyclovir on onward transmission of HIV in three scenarios of different ART and valacyclovir population coverage. Results: The average duration of HIV infection was 9.5 years. The duration of disease before reaching CD4 200 cells/μL was 2.53 years longer for females than males. Relative to a baseline of ART initiation at CD4 ≤ 500 cells/μL, the valacyclovir scenario resulted in 167,000 fewer HIV infections over ten years, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $5276 per HIV infection averted. A Test and Treat scenario with 70$2822 and $812 per HIV infection averted and QALY gained, respectively. Conclusion: Even when compared with valacyclovir suppression, a drug that reduces HIV viral load, universal treatment for HIV is the optimal strategy for averting new infections and increasing public health benefit. Universal HIV treatment would most effectively and efficiently reduce the HIV burden. Keywords: HIV, valacyclovir, herpes simplex virus, disease progression, mathematical modeling, ART, HIV preventio

Estimating PMTCT's Impact on Heterosexual HIV Transmission: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis.

IntroductionPrevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) strategies include combined short-course antiretrovirals during pregnancy (Option A), triple-drug antiretroviral treament (ART) during pregnancy and breastfeeding (Option B), or lifelong ART (Option B+). The WHO also recommends ART for HIV treatment and prevention of sexual transmission of HIV. The impact of PMTCT strategies on prevention of sexual HIV transmission of HIV is not known. We estimated the population-level impact of PMTCT interventions on heterosexual HIV transmission in southwestern Uganda and KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, two regions with different HIV prevalence and fertility rates.Materials and methodsWe constructed and validated dynamic, stochastic, network-based HIV transmission models for each region. PMTCT Options A, B, and B+ were simulated over ten years under three scenarios: 1) current ART and PMTCT coverage, 2) current ART and high PMTCT coverage, and 3) high ART and PMTCT coverage. We compared adult HIV incidence after ten years of each intervention to Option A (and current ART) at current coverage.ResultsAt current coverage, Options B and B+ reduced heterosexual HIV incidence by about 5% and 15%, respectively, in both countries. With current ART and high PMTCT coverage, Option B+ reduced HIV incidence by 35% in Uganda and 19% in South Africa, while Option B had smaller, but meaningful, reductions. The greatest reductions in HIV incidence were achieved with high ART and PMTCT coverage. In this scenario, all PMTCT strategies yielded similar results.DiscussionImplementation of Options B/B+ reduces adult HIV incidence, with greater effect (relative to Option A at current levels) in Uganda than South Africa. These results are likely driven by Uganda's higher fertility rates