Modelling the impact of emigration upon social and economic development of the Carpathian region of Ukraine

Population migration activity in the Carpathian region of Ukraine is currently high in intensity and scale compared to the national average. This situation is caused by subjective factors (lower living standards and quality of life, employment problems, escalation of armed conflict in the east) and objective factors (globalization and increasing population mobility, development of transnational corporations, digitalization of the economy, simplification of border-crossing procedures). The aim of the research is to model and visualize the impact of population migration on the social and economic development of the Carpathian region of Ukraine and to determine an optimal value and critical range of external migration for the region. Based on the modelling, assuming that socio-economic development of the Carpathian region corresponds to the level of integral coefficient for Poland in 2018 (calculated using a multiplicative approach), the acceptable level of external migration was determined. It is 0.850 for Lviv region (actual migration level was 1.479 in 2018); 0.653 for Chernivtsi region (0.695); and 1.488 for Zakarpattya region (2.149). The critical range of the intensity of external population migration is 0.723–1.264 for Lviv region, 0.499–0.578 for Chernivtsi region, 0.006–0.008 for IvanoFrankivsk region, and 0.479–0.769 for Zakarpattya region

Financial self-sufficiency of Ukrainian territorial communities and local economic development: Modeling the causal relationship

The financial self-sufficiency of communities determines their ability to create additional jobs, attract investment resources, offer quality social services, and improve the population’s living standards and well-being. The study aims to identify the casual relationships between financial self-sufficiency and local economic development of Ukrainian territorial communities during economic instability. The paper used integrated assessment based on a spatial approach (identifying the level of local economic development), indicative method (calculating empirical values of financial self-sufficiency of communities), VEC model (analyzing the sensitivity of local economic development to changes in financial self-sufficiency), balanced multi-component regression method (modeling the relationship between local economic development and financial self-sufficiency). Data were gathered on all territorial communities of Ukraine in 2021. The results show that the highest level of local economic development was observed in Dnipropetrovsk oblast (empirical coefficient equal to 0.855), high levels in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Kyiv, and Poltava oblasts (0.787; 0.687; 0.684; 0.663 each, respectively), and moderate levels in Zakarpattia (0.448) and Kirovohrad (0.433) oblasts. With increased financial self-sufficiency, local economic development can exceed 2%; a 1% increase in the decentralization of tax revenues and expenditures simultaneously leads to an increase in the attractiveness of the investment climate as an indicator of local economic development (2.3-6.6%). The study proves that the territorial communities of the regions characterized by a low level of local economic development demonstrated higher values of decentralization of interbudgetary revenues than those with higher values of local economic development

Economic growth of Ukrainian regions and determinants of financial resilience: Modeling the causal nexus

Stable economic progress and upward dynamics of economic growth in the regions depend on their level of security and ability to withstand adverse macroeconomic and other shocks, as well as the state of affairs in which risks cannot be transformed into threats and dangers. The study aims to assess the causal nexus and the level of sensitivity of regional economic growth components to changes in financial resilience determinants. The research methods include systemic and structural analyses (building an information and analytical model for studying financial resilience), Granger test (identifying causal relationships between the variables under study), risk theory (studying the nature of fluctuations), and spatial and temporal approach. Data from the regions (oblasts) of Ukraine between 2015 and 2021 form the informational and analytical basis of the study. The paper reveals that the targeted use of transfers for socio-economic progress, increasing investment capacity, and bolstering financial and budgetary autonomy through increasing local budget revenues are the dominant financial determinants of regional economic growth. The results show that the most dominant causal nexus exists between (1) budgetary efficiency, interest rates on consumer/mortgage loans, and SME development, (2) the volume of loans/deposits and labor market efficiency and SME development, and (3) innovation development and foreign economic cooperation. Intensification of investment activity is crucial for ensuring real changes in the economic structure of all regions, particularly outsiders, accelerating transformation processes, mitigating regional economic divergence, and increasing competitiveness. AcknowledgmentsThe study was conducted within the framework of the “Financial Determinants of Ensuring Economic Growth of Regions and Territorial Communities based on Behavioral Economics” project (№ 2020.02/0215) funded by the National Research Foundation of Ukraine (Competition “Support for Research of Leading and Young Scientists”)

Aspiracje migracyjne Ukraińców do Niemiec: analiza i scenariusze rozwoju

Based on the multiple regression model and scenario approach to forecasting, the article estimates the Ukrainian migration aspirations towards Germany (the scale of migration, the economic activity of migrants, and their economic benefits). It is argued that major transformations in the gender-age structure of the German population may cause a demographic crisis and labour market imbalances. Our projections indicate the growing role of foreign human resources in the German economy. When modeling the scale of emigration from Ukraine, an integrated approach is applied, considering not only trends of pull-push factors but also special aspects of the German migration policy and the outflow of 8–10 million Ukrainian migrant workers. Given the poor statistical data on the scale of labour emigration needed for constructing reliable econometric models, the use of expert forecasting method remains the most optimal technique for assessing potential migration flows and migration systems.Na podstawie modelu regresji wielokrotnej i podejścia scenariuszowego do prognoz oszacowano ukraińskie aspiracje migracyjne do Niemiec (skala migracji, aktywność gospodarcza migrantów i ich korzyści ekonomiczne). Argumentuje się, że poważne zmiany w strukturze wiekowej i płci ludności lokalnej mogą powodować kryzys demograficzny i utratę równowagi na rynku pracy. Przedstawione prognozy wskazują na rosnącą rolę zagranicznych zasobów ludzkich w niemieckiej gospodarce. Modelując skalę emigracji z Ukrainy zastosowano podejście zintegrowane, uwzględniające nie tylko trendy czynników przyciągających, ale także szczególne aspekty niemieckiej polityki migracyjnej i odpływ 8–10 milionów ukraińskich pracowników. Biorąc pod uwagę brak wystarczających danych statystycznych dotyczących skali emigracji zarobkowej, potrzebnych do budowy wiarygodnych modeli ekonometrycznych, uzasadniono, że zastosowanie eksperckiej metody prognozowania pozostaje optymalną techniką oceny potencjalnych przepływów migracyjnych i systemów migracji

Modes and Measures of Business Support During Wartime: The Case of the Carpathian Region of Ukraine

This article reveals the geographical distribution, structures, and problematic aspects of business migration to the oblasts of the Carpathian region of Ukraine and abroad. In the context of the Russian–Ukrainian war, the article assesses the risks and threats that internal and international business migration pose to the Ukrainian economic system, economies of the Carpathian region, the internal consumer market, and business entities. Measures to mitigate the threats of business migration to the Carpathian region are offered. The implementation of certain measures will eliminate the identified threats to relocated businesses and minimise the risks to the social and economic development of the Carpathian region and Ukraine as a whole

Development of Regional Labor Markets in Ukraine as a Tool to Regulate Internal Migration and Reduce Social Vulnerability

Purpose: The article explores links between the attractiveness of regional labor markets and internal migration as a change in the usual place of residence in Ukraine. Methodology: Based on the migration theory of “push-pull” a study of the attractiveness of regional labor markets as determinants of the intensification of internal migration in 24 regions of Ukraine (2010–2020) was conducted with the use of integrated assessment and balance econometric modeling. Findings: The study found that the internal migration activity in Ukraine is of urbanistic nature because the development of rural-urban area migration vectors dominates in the country. The most attractive regions in the focus of internal emigration and immigration processes are defined based on the developed rankings of the regions’ attractiveness by the system of labor market and employment development indicators. Research limitations: This article studies a specific country and its regions, along with the local labor market. One should be careful when generalizing the results to other regional labor markets. Originality/value: The level of regional labor markets’ attractiveness correlated with internal migration activity. The attractive regional labor market, high IT market development level, and increasing innovative-technological capacity proved the main attraction factors of these region

Social and economic development of Ukraine: Modelling the migration factor impact

The paper aims to analyse the dependence of the economic and social development of Ukraine on migration factors (human resources and remittances) in the years 2002–2020. It proves the strength of the impact of human resources outflow and remittances on the labour market (employment) and other variables capturing the level of economic and social development. Based on the calculated social and economic development composite indicators the paper detects the migration gaps in the development of the economic system and social domain depending on the human resources outflow and remittances inflow. The results of the empirical research show a positive causal relationship between social development environments and migration and a mixed impact of the migration factor on economic system

Assessment of environment of an area’s social vulnerability: ecological aspect

Purpose. The purpose of the current research is identification and integral estimation of ecological determinants of forming environment of an area’s social vulnerability (on the example of the oblasts of the Carpathian region of Ukraine). Methodology / approach. The empirics of environment of the social vulnerability based on the identification of ecological components is carried out by construction of commensurate series of indicators’ values through the normalizing for each group of parameters, in particular, within the selected set of areas (oblasts of the Carpathian region). The construction of time series of significance coefficients (calculation of weight coefficients) stipulates the use of the theory of sensitivity, while the calculation of the integral coefficient of the social vulnerability natural environment requires the multiplicative approach. Results. The calculated integral coefficients of the natural environment of social vulnerability contributed to determining the living standards of the population of the natural resource sector and showed a significant socio-ecological divergence among the oblasts of the Carpathian region and Ukraine. In 2019, the highest values of integral coefficients of social vulnerability natural environment in the Carpathian region of Ukraine were observed in Ivano-Frankivsk (0.574) and Chernivtsi (0.391) oblasts. Ivano-Frankivsk oblast was the leader in that regard throughout the studied period. Originality / scientific novelty. The methodological approach for analyzing the social vulnerability of the area has been improved, which, unlike the traditional ones based on determinants of the social, economic, and political environment, provides for a comprehensive analysis of the sensitivity of changes in the social vulnerability of the territory regarding the changes in the natural environment determinants. Practical value / implications. The paper offers and substantiates a methodological approach to the estimation of ecological determinants as the indicators of an area’s vulnerability growth, which serves as the information-analytical base for the development of the initiative-taking social vulnerability reduction policy

Інструменти регіональної політики збереження людського ресурсу засобами регулювання зовнішньої міграції молоді сільських територій Карпатського регіону

Purpose. The aim of the article was to identify and analyze negative trends, substantiate practical recommendations for improving regional policy for preserving human resources by regulating the external migration of young people from rural territories of the Carpathian region in Ukraine. Methodology / approach. The methodological basis of the study involved general scientific (graphic, structural analysis) and special (sociological, integral and correlation analysis) methods of research. Sociological survey was conducted by the SI “Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine”) in September-October 2019. The survey was focused on the higher educational institutions, vocational schools and general secondary schools graduate students from the Carpathian Region (1200 people). The author’s approach to constructing an integral index of the migration activity environment involved the implementation of an algorithm based on the normalization of indicators (stimulators and de-stimulators), determination of the weights of indicators and groups of indicators by constructing a correlation matrix, calculation of multidimensional values in the form of weighted group indices. Results. In the article, due to sociological research, characteristics of external migration activity of young people from rural areas of the Carpathian Region in Ukraine were analyzed. Conclusions were based on the problematic aspects of youth migration and its impact on the further development of rural areas. The integral indices of push-factors determining population migration in Ukraine and Lviv Region were calculated, which allowed stating a higher level of “aggressiveness” of the population migration environment in the Carpathian Region compared to the average in the country. Recommendations on the instruments for regulating migration of young people from rural areas to preserve human potential for their development were substantiated. Originality / scientific novelty. A new methodology for calculating the integral index of the environment of population migration activity was developed (using five groups of indicators: demographic stability and health status; population enrolment in education; labour market and employment conditions; living standards; economic development), as well as approach to evaluation of the relationship between the push-environment and migration activity of population was improved. Practical value / implications. policy instruments for conserving human resources by regulating the external migration of young people from rural areas (by organizational, economic and institutional groups) were substantiated for their implementation by regional authorities

Internal migration during the war in Ukraine: Recent challenges and problems

Insecurity, chaotic extensive internal movement, and external migration, growing social vulnerability, and decreasing economic stability of internally displaced persons, characterize the migration crisis caused by the large-scale Russian war against Ukraine. The aim of this paper is to reveal the needs (tangible and intangible), challenges, and opportunities for the social integration of internally displaced persons in the host communities (on the example of the Pidberiztsivska territorial community of Lviv oblast). The paper presents the sociological survey through in-depth interviews based on questionnaires. The sample is based on five strata (four starostyn areas and the administrative center) and amounts to 4% of the statistical population (50 displaced persons). The paper specifies that the host society’s lack of affordable housing (68.6% of respondents) and limited employment opportunities (39.9% of respondents) are the main challenges for internally displaced persons. The survey reveals a low level of integration of internally displaced persons and a lack of desire to assimilate into the host society caused by positive aspirations to emigrate abroad (13.5% of respondents) and intentions to return to their previous (permanent) place of residence (54% of respondents). Mapping the problems and needs of internally displaced persons can constitute the information-analytical basis for ensuring the communities’ economic progress in times of war in terms of accumulation and efficient use of the capacity of internally displaced persons. AcknowledgmentThe study is conducted within the framework of the grant “Instruments for the support of integration of IDPs into life in the Pidberiztsivska territorial community: A pilot project in Lviv oblast” funded by the International Renaissance Foundation (Grant registration number 54766, 2022–2023)